Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 300521 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
120 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE AREA STILL REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...BUT WITH CAPE
VALUES UP TO 2500 J/KG ANALYZED IN PARTS OF THE AREA CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING.

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD BE GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA METRO AREA AND SOUTHWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A FEW
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE
NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.

ADDITIONALLY...A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON TO
SWAINSBORO LINE FOR HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 108 DEGREES. AT
THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED
TOMORROW AS ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER RESULTING FROM CONVECTION WILL
HELP KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW 105...EVEN IN CENTRAL GEORGIA.

RW

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A
COLD FRONT STALLING OVER SOUTH GA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND IN CENTRAL GA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. THIS SUGGESTS
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THE FIRST OF
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATER RAIN
CHANCES FOR CENTRAL GA FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND WEAK WIND SHEAR VALUES SUGGEST MOST STORMS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...WITH THE TYPICAL GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH GA OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR
SOUTH THE DRIER/COOLER AIR MASS WILL PUSH ON SUNDAY...BUT EVEN
CENTRAL GA SHOULD SEE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY BEFORE
THE HOT TEMPS RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK.

39/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION. SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES EXPECTED THROUGH
14Z...MAY HAVE BRIEF IMPACTS AT THE KAHN/KMCN/KFTY/KPDK TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT WILL FAVOR NORTHWESTERLY MOST AREAS AFTER 12Z-14Z.
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE
BETWEEN 16Z-00Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE PROB30 AT THE TAF SITES
DURING THE 19Z-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN BEST CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...

CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          75  94  73  92 /  30  40  30  30
ATLANTA         77  93  74  90 /  30  40  30  30
BLAIRSVILLE     68  87  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  69  90 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        77  95  76  93 /  30  50  40  40
GAINESVILLE     75  91  72  89 /  30  40  20  20
MACON           75  94  75  94 /  30  50  40  40
ROME            74  93  69  91 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  74  93  72  91 /  30  40  30  30
VIDALIA         74  94  76  93 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01


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