Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 050729
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
329 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SAME UPPER TROUGH DISCUSSED ALL WEEK CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE
AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS TO THE CAROLINAS TODAY.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST
GEORGIA. HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE AS EARLY AS MID MORNING...AND
INCREASE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS BY THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT DIURNAL
HEATING TO ALLOW MINIMAL /NON-ZERO/ CAPE TO PRODUCE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD DROP OF
DRAMATICALLY WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. COLD CORE SYSTEM ALOFT COULD
ALLOW SOME GRAUPEL/SMALL HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS...BUT AT THIS
TIME THINKING EVEN THIS COULD BE A STRETCH FOR OUR AREA. AND
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THE CAROLINA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TO...ANY WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA.

THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE ENHANCED WINDS ACROSS THE STATE.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE NW WINDS OF 15-25MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 35MPH+. WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 11PM TODAY. WIND SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY...BUT AT THIS TIME
WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATEST MODEL
TRENDS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF AN ADVISORY MAY BE
NECESSARY AFTER ALL.

THIS UNUSUAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH THE UPPER LOW AND STRONG OMEGA
BLOCK TO THE WEST CONTINUES TO ALLOW THE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW TO
REINFORCE A DRIER AND CHILLIER AIRMASS OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP IT FEELING DOWN
RIGHT CHILLY FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND /HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 70S/ AS LOW LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST AND THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SCOOTS EASTWARD.

31


.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE WITH THE CLOSED LOW FILLING AND MOVING OUT TO SEA
WITH A H5 RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING MODERATING TEMPS BACK TO THE CWA. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WE GET
INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW AND WILL THEREFORE BROADBRUSH POPS KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS
ACROSS NORTH GA WHERE BOTH MODELS SHOW THE DEEPEST MOISTURE.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NW WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20KT AND GUSTS OF
25-30KT. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK BETWEEN 17-00Z AND THEN
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES RETURN
TO FAR NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE MORNING BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE ATL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. HAVE INCLUDED A
VCSH AT THE AHN TAF FOR 17-20Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          65  47  72  50 /  20  10   5   5
ATLANTA         64  50  71  53 /  20  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     57  44  66  46 /  30  20   5   5
CARTERSVILLE    63  45  71  49 /  20  10   0   0
COLUMBUS        71  51  75  53 /  10   5   0   0
GAINESVILLE     62  48  70  51 /  30  10   5   5
MACON           70  47  74  50 /  10  10   0   0
ROME            65  46  71  48 /  20  10   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  66  45  71  49 /  20  10   0   0
VIDALIA         72  50  74  54 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...
BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTAHOOCHEE...
CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...
CRAWFORD...CRISP...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DODGE...DOOLY...
DOUGLAS...EMANUEL...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...
GILMER...GLASCOCK...GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...
HANCOCK...HARALSON...HARRIS...HEARD...HENRY...HOUSTON...
JACKSON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...
LAURENS...LUMPKIN...MACON...MADISON...MARION...MERIWETHER...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...MURRAY...MUSCOGEE...NEWTON...
NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PEACH...
PICKENS...PIKE...POLK...PULASKI...PUTNAM...ROCKDALE...SCHLEY...
SOUTH FULTON...SPALDING...STEWART...SUMTER...TALBOT...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TOWNS...TREUTLEN...
TROUP...TWIGGS...UNION...UPSON...WALKER...WALTON...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILCOX...
WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...31



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