Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 021950
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
250 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/...
High pressure continues over the area but will
be weaken and push east as next frontal system nears the region. The
ridge becomes wedged down the eastern seaboard Sat night/Sunday
morning setting up and over running precip situation as increased
moisture pushes in from the west. The current satellite loop shows
a large moisture plume extending from the southern Baja peninsula to
the OK/AR area. this plume is associated with the next frontal
system that will continue to develop tonight and push into the gulf
coast and southeastern states Sat/Sat night. with the high pressure
ridge/wedge in place we will only see showers at the start of this
system so did not introduce any thunder into the short term
forecast. Low temps tonight expected in the 30s and 40s with highs
in the 50s and 60s Sat. Low temps Sat night will stay in the 40s
across the area.
.LONG TERM /Sunday through Friday/...
Previous forecast is mainly on track with a few adjustments made.
A southern stream jet will approach allowing a series of lows
to move through our area late Saturday night through Tuesday.
There will be a couple of rounds of rain as these sfc lows
traverse the region. Narrowing down the exact time and location
of heaviest precipitation is a bit tough this far our. But
confidence is continuing to increase in regards to unsettled
weather during this period. Appears central GA (at this point at
least) will see the highest amount of rain through the first half
of the work week, around 2 to 3 inches possible with locally
higher amounts. Again, with time we will fine tune these amounts
and spatial coverage. It should be noted that as the sfc lows
cross from the south, a warm front will lift north Monday into
Tuesday with little instability and moderate shear. Will continue
to monitor this period for the potential of isolated to scattered
High pressure will build in Wednesday with another front
approaching on its heels. Models have diverged a bit on the
timing and precipitation associated with this front. However, I
think at this point, it is safe to say we will be getting a
reinforcing shot of cooler air as we near the end of next week.
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 AM EST Fri Dec 2 2016/
LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...
Long-Term Forecast period still looks fairly wet through the majority
of the period. Appears we will have another chance to put a dent in
the rainfall deficit we have built up over the past several months.
Medium range models in fairly good agreement concerning the large
scale pattern through the period. Initial shot of precipitation
Saturday night through Sunday more of an over-running event as the
cool surface ridge remains in place down the east coast across north
and central Georgia. Ample moisture involved as gulf moisture over-
runs the stable surface airmass. Appears that instability will be
lacking for thunder at this point. Second wave Monday night through
Tuesday looks to be a bit more dynamic in nature as the closed upper
low that was anchored over northern Mexico kicks out to the
northeast. Upper trough and short wave are weakening as it sweeps
through the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability and shear are not
as impressive as the system that brought the severe weather to north
Georgia earlier this week, but they are sufficient to merit a close
eye as the system approaches.
System late next week is showing the potential to usher in some of
the coldest air of the season in its wake, but enough divergence
between the GFS and ECMWF solutions to hold off on going too extreme
that far out in the forecast.
VFR Ceilings with no precipitation or restrictions to VSBYs
expected this TAF period. Clouds will be increasing ahead of next
frontal system but still no precip expected yet. Winds will start
out of the NW then turn to the NE then East. Wind speeds will stay
10kt or less through the period with some higher gust this
afternoon to 15kt.
//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 37 58 43 48 / 0 20 60 70
Atlanta 40 57 44 49 / 0 40 70 70
Blairsville 31 54 39 45 / 0 40 70 70
Cartersville 36 55 42 48 / 0 40 70 70
Columbus 42 60 47 55 / 0 20 60 70
Gainesville 39 57 42 46 / 0 30 70 70
Macon 38 62 45 56 / 0 10 50 60
Rome 35 54 41 48 / 0 40 70 70
Peachtree City 37 57 43 50 / 0 30 70 70
Vidalia 40 64 47 64 / 0 5 30 40