Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 230056
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
856 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017



.UPDATE...
Evening convection continues to wind down. Only a few storms
remain, mostly across the southern half of the CWFA. Movement of
storms has been slow, and progression has mainly been outflow
driven. Will leave isolated pops in overnight, especially in this
airmass. Have tweaked pops a bit for the next several hours,
otherwise no major changes.

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 721 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 334 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

A convergence zone seen on sat pics is the main area of convection
this afternoon. There could be a southward drift to this but for the
most part it will remain across north Georgia where scattered tsra
will continue this afternoon into the evening. Across central GA
forcing mainly driven by daytime heating will be more isolated to
scattered and should dissipate quickly this evening. A surface
trough will become a little more defined Sunday as deeper Gulf
moisture spreads into the CWA. PWs push into the 1.5 to 2.0 inch
range. Have gone with high chance pops closer to the surface trough
across north Georgia Sunday afternoon and low chance pops central.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler across the CWA Sunday.
Although heat index values will reach into the 100 to 104 range,
values should stay below 105 keeping the CWA out of heat advisory
criteria for Monday.

17

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Minor adjustments to raise some late week pops in the northern
portion given more consistency on some NW flow influence before
some late period ridging can possibly finally make it into the
area. Refreshed other fcst elements with latest blend, which has
not differed much from before. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 730 AM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

The forecast through the extended continues to be characterized by
daily shower and thunderstorm opportunities. At the onset of the
period on Monday, an upper shortwave and approaching cold front will
serve to focus scattered convection, especially by afternoon and
evening during peak daytime heating. Given a moisture rich airmass
with PWATs around 2 inches, locally heavy rainfall can be expected.
Furthermore, as is typical during mid summer with building afternoon
instability, some strong thunderstorms will be possible.

This weakening cold front will continue to linger in the
area through midweek, which will enhance diurnal convection each
day. By late week, the upper levels transition into a northwest flow
pattern. Any disturbances riding into the area will bring additional
shower and thunderstorm chances to the state with the increased
potential for mesoscale convective systems arriving from the
northwest.

High temperatures will not stray too far from normal through the
long-term period, with highs generally near 90 in north Georgia and
into the lower 90s in central Georgia. Low temperatures, meanwhile,
will run a few degrees above normal in the mid-70s with the
exception of cooler temperatures in the mountains.

RW

CLIMATE...

Records for 07-22

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     103 1932     72 1970     76 1930     58 1947
   KATL     102 1993     75 1970     80 1881     59 1947
   KCSG     102 1943     80 1970     79 1934     61 1922
   KMCN     102 1983     81 1913     79 1983     61 1947
                1977

Records for 07-23

               Max Temperature         Min Temperature
  Station      High        Low         High        Low
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     104 1924     73 1904     79 1983     60 1966
   KATL     100 1952     76 1890     78 1943     60 1947
   KCSG     103 1952     79 1913     80 1983     63 1947
                1943
   KMCN     102 1987     75 1919     79 1983     62 1966
                1952                                1947
                1907

AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Convection has begun to wind down this evening, and has moved well
south of ATL. Skies should become mostly clear with just some sct
cirrus overnight. CU will start to develop during the late
morning/early afternoon on Monday. A bit better chances for
convection tomorrow as a surface trough sets up just north of the
metro. Winds will remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
High confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          74  93  73  90 /  20  40  30  50
Atlanta         75  92  73  89 /  20  40  30  50
Blairsville     70  88  70  84 /  20  50  50  50
Cartersville    73  91  74  88 /  20  40  40  60
Columbus        76  93  75  91 /  30  40  30  60
Gainesville     74  90  73  88 /  20  40  30  50
Macon           75  94  74  91 /  30  40  20  50
Rome            74  92  74  89 /  20  50  40  60
Peachtree City  73  90  73  89 /  20  40  30  60
Vidalia         73  91  74  91 /  30  40  20  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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