Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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000
FXUS62 KFFC 110755
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
355 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL SITUATED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL GA THIS
MORNING. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
OVER NORTHERN GA. THE LOW CENTER MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE MORE LIFT THAN
YESTERDAY...AND COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER.
HOWEVER...THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE FRONT.

AGAIN...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW A NICE INVERTED
V STRUCTURE...SO GUSTY WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM YESTERDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA...A SIGN THAT THERE IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BACK
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. DO THINK THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS BEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA...WHERE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE RESIDES WITH THE TLH SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS JUST UNDER 2
INCHES.

THE BOUNDARY WILL TRY AND INCH A LITTLE SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY...
KEEPING THE BEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA AND ONLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE METRO ATL AREA.

TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...IF THE
BOUNDARY DOES SHIFT SOUTHWARD BY SATURDAY...TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE
TO NEAR 90S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

NLISTEMAA


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AMPLIFICATION OF RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS CONUS BEGINNING
SUNDAY/MONDAY STILL ON TRACK PER 00Z MED RANGE MODELS...WHICH
SHOW VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WRN RIDGE BUILDS NORTH WHILE NICE UPPER
LOW AND BROAD/DEEP TROUGH PROGGED TO DIP INTO UPPER MIDWEST STATES
MON. BULK OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE STATE BUT
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF PUSH OF DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS ON WED. AS WESTERLIES ALONG PERIPHERY TROUGH MOVE OVER THE
STATE TUES THEN RETURN BACK NORTH ON THURS...SHOULD SEE GOOD
CHANCE OF CONVECTION. NO TROPICAL ACTIVITY OR OTHER HIGH IMPACT
EVENTS SEEN IN MODEL GUIDANCE. USED BIAS CORRECTED BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

SNELSON


&&

AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL GA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A WEAK LOW IS NOTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN NW GA. FOR
NOW...WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO
THE EAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP REMAINS
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF THE PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW AND THINK CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
FOR A TEMPO GROUP. LOW CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT THE TAF
SITES TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF ATL.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MED TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  71  91  69 /  30  20  20  10
ATLANTA         89  72  91  72 /  30  20  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     83  65  85  63 /  30  10  20   5
CARTERSVILLE    89  71  92  69 /  10  10  20   5
COLUMBUS        91  74  94  73 /  30  20  20  10
GAINESVILLE     88  70  89  71 /  30  20  20  10
MACON           90  72  93  70 /  40  20  30  10
ROME            90  69  93  70 /  10  10  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  89  71  91  68 /  30  20  20  10
VIDALIA         88  72  92  71 /  40  30  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA




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