Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 050547
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

..SOME NORTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARIES MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT ALONG WITH A LINE PUSHING
EASTWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY...

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FOR HIGHER POPS AGAIN IN FAR NORTH GEORGIA WITH LATEST
CONVECTIVE TRIGGERING ALONG SOME LINGERING NORTHWARD MOVING
BOUNDARIES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS WITH POP TRENDS GREATER IN WEST CENTRAL GA WITH
APPROACHING COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT SHOULD LOSE SOME STEAM BEFORE
MACON WITH LACK OF HEATING AND PREVIOUS COOL POOL FROM EARLIER
PRECIP. ALSO ADJUSTED SOME HIGHER POPS IN NORTH GA WITH APPROACH
OF UPPER LOW AND SOME MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTH AL. THUNDER CHANCES GREATER IN THE SOUTH BUT ANY LOCATION
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS
PVA INCREASES WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW. ALSO MADE LARGE ADJUSTMENTS
ON TEMP TRENDS THIS EVENING FROM THE LATE DAY SOLAR SHELTERING
KEEPING CENTRAL GA COOLER AND NORTH GA WARMER. HAVE ALSO UPDATED
THE QPF THRU TOMORROW GOING A BIT HIGHER THAN WPC GUIDANCE WITH
THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STILL
LOOKING AT SOME WIDESPREAD VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES THOUGH 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH
GOING FOR THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GEORGIA HAS LED
TO A SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AIRMASS ACROSS THE METRO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. CLEARING HAS OCCURRED AND TEMPS ARE RISING INTO THE 80S.
FURTHER SOUTH...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MORNING CONVECTION IS
INTERACTING WITH ONGOING STORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

FOR TONIGHT...NEXT WAVE OF CONVECTION IS GETTING FIRED UP ACROSS
EASTERN MS AND WESTERN AL. THE HRRR AND THE WRF SHOW THIS CLUSTER OF
STORMS APPROACHING THE AL/GA STATE LINE AROUND 00Z. BOTH THE HI-RES
MODELS WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY AS IT CROSSES THE STATE LINE...BUT THE
WRF HAS LESS COVERAGE THAN THE HRRR. NEITHER MODEL HAD A GREAT
HANDLE ON THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION...UNTIL A FEW HOURS INTO IT.
SINCE THIS WOULD BE THE TIMING THAT THE UPPER LOW AND A LARGE AREA
OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE CROSSES THE CWFA...HAVE KEPT THE POPS LIKELY
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 85. THE MODELS DO PROG PRECIP
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE SO HAVE DECREASED THE
POPS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE FOR SUNDAY...SO EXPECT ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THINK THE BEST TIMING FOR STORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST
GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN TO CONTINUE LOWERING POPS THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY BEFORE ERODING
AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO A BIT OF INCREASED MOISTURE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH REDUCED THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICE FOR THE
GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

DEESE/01

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
A BRIEF BREAK FROM WHAT SEEMS HAS BEEN A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHRA
AND TSRA AFFECTING THE TERMINALS. IFR AND MVFR MOVING IN FROM
ALABAMA LOOKS TO MOVE IN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND INFLUENCE SITES
THROUGH 14Z. LOOKING FOR ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO THE CSG
AREA BY MID MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON TSRA IN
ATL AND AREA SITES AS WELL AS AHN AND MCN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TSRA POTENTIAL.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

DEESE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          84  69  86  69 /  60  40  50  20
ATLANTA         81  69  84  71 /  60  40  50  20
BLAIRSVILLE     76  63  79  64 /  70  50  50  30
CARTERSVILLE    80  68  84  68 /  70  40  50  30
COLUMBUS        85  71  87  72 /  60  40  50  30
GAINESVILLE     80  68  83  70 /  60  50  50  20
MACON           88  70  88  71 /  60  40  50  20
ROME            81  68  85  68 /  70  40  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  82  69  85  69 /  60  40  50  20
VIDALIA         92  72  89  72 /  60  40  50  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...JACKSON...
LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH FULTON...OCONEE...
OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...ROCKDALE...SOUTH
FULTON...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...
WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEESE
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...DEESE


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