Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
647
FXUS63 KPAH 221954
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
154 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Will have some lingering shower chances this afternoon and
tonight, but the main story for the short term is gusty north
northwest winds and considerably cooler air.

At this time, one band of light rain is lifting north through
northwest Kentucky, but it is expected to dissipate in the next
couple of hours. Our best chances of rain will be in southern
portions of southeast Missouri and the Purchase Area late this
afternoon into the evening, as another band attempts to push north
while the upper low rotates through Mississippi and Alabama. This
band may not reach our area at all, so we may not see much if any
measurable rain.

With the surface low passing well south of our region, northerly
winds will pick up throughout the area late this afternoon. The
leading edge of the good northwest push is near KSTL, and as
the pressure rises quickly over our area, northwest winds will
pick up this evening and continue to be strong well into Monday.
Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible.

Solid low clouds are expected to spread southeast through the
area this evening as well. It is uncertain how long they will
hang around, but with good cold advection and limited sunshine on
Monday, guidance was undercut by a few degrees for highs on
Monday.

The surface ridge will move through the region late Monday and
Monday evening, with south winds returning in our west by 12Z
Tuesday. Some locations, may drop below freezing early Tuesday
morning, and we may not be cool enough over the eastern half of
the area.

South winds will pick up considerably Tuesday afternoon and
night, as a nearly occluded storm system wobbles eastward through
the Upper Midwest. With south winds and plenty of sunshine we
should see a decent warm up well into the 50s Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will stay up Tuesday night, so it will be a mild one with
lows near normal highs for this time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 154 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

The medium range models appeared to be in reasonable agreement in
the extended forecast period across the CONUS.

The surface wind shift to the west across the PAH forecast area
should be complete by Wed afternoon behind a cold front. The models
indicate this surface pressure gradient will allow our surface winds
to remain consistently out of the west through the remainder of the
extended forecast period. Meanwhile, a broad northern stream mid
level trof is progged to continue its expansion eastward across the
eastern CONUS through most of the period, with the vast majority of
pcpn confined to the northern half of the CONUS. There will be
periodic lobes of shortwave energy moving through the broad trof,
creating brief opportunities for cloudiness and perhaps some non-
measurable sprinkles or flurries for our region.

One exception will be Wed night, when there might be enough energy
aloft to trigger a bit of measurable rain/snowflakes across
southwestern IN and adjacent parts of southeastern IL and northern
KY. Clouds should linger nearly all day Thu over most of the region,
especially east of the MS River.

For the weekend, there will be sunshine, but perhaps a bit less
across the northeastern half of the region as additional impulses
(clipper-like systems) travel through the dominant eastern CONUS mid
level trof, with a more northerly fetch of cooler air than before.

Temperatures should start out Wednesday in the 50s days/30s nights,
then drop to near seasonable levels through Day 7 (30s/40s days, 20s
nights), reinforced by increasingly northerly flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

Very low confidence situation for this forecast cycle. Have
removed all mention of precipitation, but it may be close at KCGI
in the next few hours. The main headache is the ceiling forecast.
The latest guidance has MVFR ceilings coming in by this evening,
and then lowering through the night to IFR conditions by morning.
Not sure about even the MVFR levels, so went on the optimistic
side with MVFR ceilings for much of the night and through the
morning. Could easily see the forecast go either way from there in
the second half of the period.

What is certain is that north winds will increase through the
afternoon and become gusty tonight and Monday morning. I think
guidance may be a bit too strong, so tried to keep gusts at or
below 25kts.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.