Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 222203

503 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Updated Aviation section for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Chilly Canadian high pressure will continue in control of the
weather tonight. Main forecast challenge continues to lie with
frost potential later tonight. Current dew points are mostly in
the lower 40s. Much like last night, clear and calm conditions
will allow temps to fall off quickly after sunset. Sfc temps will
likely end up driving dew point down after midnight, creating
another heavy dew situation. This will usually preclude much frost
formation with above freezing temperatures. So, have decided to
hold off on any frost headlines, but will still mention areas of
frost in areas along/east of the MS River. Normally colder
locations could end up close to freezing by sunrise.

On Thursday/Thursday night, an upper level trof should pass by
just north of the forecast area. Thinking now is that all
measurable precip will stay to our north and we will likely just
get some increase in cloud cover from the system. Should be one
more chilly day with highs in the 60s. Sfc high will finally drift
farther east of the region by Friday/Friday night, allowing a
significant warming trend to get underway.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend into Monday as an upper level ridge moves across the PAH
forecast area.

Models continue to flip flop with their solutions with the
Tuesday/Wednesday cold front passage. ECMWF and GFS sometimes take
the front through pretty quickly late Monday night into early
Tuesday night, and sometimes stall the front over our region through
at least Wednesday.  The best agreement and most consistency between
the models is precipitation moving into our west/northwest counties
late Monday night, with good chances through the day Tuesday.  After
Tuesday, confidence drops off more.  Will continue with slight to
low chance pops for showers for our west/northwest counties late
Monday night, then chance pops area wide on Tuesday.  By Tuesday
night, went with slight chance pops west to chance pops east, which
somewhat is a compromise of the two solutions.  By Wednesday, went
with cooler temperatures based on the belief we should be north of
the front in either case.


Issued at 459 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

No clouds or vsby obstructions are forecast tonight as a surface
high pressure ridge passes overhead. This may lead to potential
for ground fog...with some ifr conditions possible toward
sunrise...mainly at the fog prone sites. As the high shifts east
tmrw, some high clouds will begin to move in from the west.



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