Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 170531

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1131 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Overrunning clouds/rain will impact the area later tonight and
early tomorrow morning. It looks like a high pop/low qpf event for
basically the entire area. The pcpn splits off into two areas
north and south of the area as the system departs, so qpf is
scarce overall with largely quarter inch or less amounts generally

Pcpn ends/improving conditions are expected by tmrw pm/evening,
but the lingering clouds may hold temps down in the upper end of
the 40s for highs. Monday should see some sun return with nicely
recovering temps thru the 50s. Lows will be moderating thru the
30s to 40s by Monday night, nothing too extreme on either end for

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

Medium confidence in the extended early with continued much lower
confidence with this weekend`s solutions.

Models have locked onto a system Wednesday as a short wave ejects
out of the southwest into the Mississippi Valley. However the
system`s northern extent is still in question among the ensembles
and deterministic models. They mostly agree on the larger impact
to remain south of the area with at least a glancing blow along
the southern periphery of the paducah fa. Models do agree on much
above normal temperatures ahead of this system Tuesday with some
locations encountering 60 degree readings. However the surface
reflection with this system will be a cold front that should cool
us down around 10 degrees starting Wednesday. Rainfall amounts
will be light for the region with most areas struggling to reach a
wetting rain category. The next system is set to reach the area
Friday with somewhat of a split flow suggested. The flow aloft
will remain out of the southwest with a system passing through
the Gulf States and another passing through the Great Lakes. This
again will bring low chances of rain with the meager qpf,
although the temperatures will drop as yet another cold front
moves through the fa. Here still again the MOS numbers depart even
more than yesterday with the ECMWF more than 10 degrees warmer
than the GFS. The blend has been going between but leaning more
toward the warmer ECMWF. The GFS has shown a warming trend with
Friday but is still much cooler than the others. Finally we have a
reinforcing cold front poised to move through Saturday but models
still have a five to ten degree spread with temps. Saturday`s
front will definitely be moisture starved but still could produce
some light rain. In addition if enough moisture lingers we could
see some wintry precip but models diverge greatly at this time
frame with EC giving no precip of any kind. Will have to wait
until there is better agreement in later runs to make this call.


Issued at 1131 PM CST Sat Dec 16 2017

VFR conditions expected through 11z with mainly just mid and high
clouds. Rain chances begin around 12z at KCGI/KPAH, and 14z at
KEVV/KOWB, with MVFR to IFR vsbys and MVFR cigs accompanying
precipitation. Rain chances expected to taper off around midday,
with mainly low VFR cigs and no vsby restrictions after rain moves
out in the afternoon. Winds will be from the south around 5 kts
overnight, increasing to 5 to 10 kts after 10z. Winds will drop
under 5 kts after 00z, with some MVFR fog development possible.




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