Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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116
FXUS63 KPAH 191948
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
148 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The ribbon of boundary layer moisture is hanging tough across the
lower Ohio river valley and is stubborn to disperse in entirety.
Satellite trends do suggest it will by days end, however, model
time/heights likewise linger a high rh through the boundary layer
again tonight. Therefore we anticipate another possible night of
low clouds/stratus and/or lower vsbys due to fog. Will include
this in grids and let tonight`s trends dictate any headlining
necessity.

Additional clouds upstream now moving into AR will begin to make
their way into the Quad State Monday, as the upper ridge slides
east. Warm air advection aloft will begin to destabilize the
environment, and with rising dew points, we`ll see a brief window
of MUCapes and elevated instability supportive of thunder
inclusion with our returning pcpn chance, Monday evening-night.

Pops will wind down from west to east Tuesday as the weakening
upper trof makes passage across the area.

Warm temps continue throughout the short term with numbers in or
near the 70s/50s for highs/lows.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 147 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

The first two days (Wednesday and Thursday) should continue the
trend of record or near record high temperatures across the WFO PAH
forecast area, with Wednesday likely to be the warmest day this
week.

Forecast confidence is higher than yesterday (50-70%) as medium
range model guidances has clustered toward a reasonable solution for
the for the early week and more importantly the late week (late
Thursday/Friday) weather systems.  SPC has already highlighted one
threat area for Friday in their Day 4 - Day 8 Severe Weather Outlook
and it seems reasonable.  The depth and speed of moisture return
will be key in determining how robust/vigorous updraft will become
in the highly sheared environment.

with the introduction of the 12z ECMWF, kept the focus of
instability (thunderstorm activity) from Thursday afternoon through
the daytime Friday. Best instability remains east of the Mississippi
river on Friday, with the highest rain chances over West Kentucky
and Southwest Indiana.

GFS MOS guidance a little higher than collaborated temperatures on
Wednesday and Thursday. Anticipate an upward adjustment in
temperatures in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. Would not be
surprised if there is a near 80 degree reading somewhere in the WFO
PAH forecast area on Wed/Thu.

The timing of the next weather system on Sunday and Sunday night is
still uncertain, so utilized blended guidance to reflect the weather
during that time period.

Otherwise, no appreciable changes to forecast trends with this
package.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 114 PM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

Finally starting to see breaks in the restricted CIGS/VSBYS from
this morning`s Fog and Low Clouds. However, gridded time/height
cross sections show high rh again in the boundary layer for the
overnight hours, so won`t be shocked if we have a similar repeat
tonight with IFR to MVFR conditions developing. Tmrw will see rain
chances increase, as the overall column moistens up, but not yet
included in the forecast as best chances will be tmrw night.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...Smith



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