Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 311201
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
701 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR KIND AS OF 08Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE LAST OF THE
DRIZZLE...AND THE FINAL WIND SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST IS WORKING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WEST KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD BE CLEAR
OF THE AREA BY 12Z. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE AREA.

MOST 00Z GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF DEVELOP A
CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT LINGERS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...OR AT LEAST LINGERS AN OPEN TROUGH
OVERHEAD. EITHER WAY IT APPEARS THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH. THIS WILL PRIMARILY IMPACT THE BOOTHEEL REGION OF
MISSOURI AND WEST KENTUCKY. BEST CHANCES WOULD BE ALONG THE
TENNESSEE BORDER TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE NAM AND GFS ROTATE
MORE SHOWERS NORTHWEST/WEST ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY AGAIN TUESDAY.

THIS REPRESENTS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION
FROM YESTERDAY...SO WILL LINGER POPS OVER THOSE AREAS...BUT ONLY
20-30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS CAN RAMP THEM UP IF THE
SIGNAL PERSISTS/STRENGTHENS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BEFORE CLEARING
COMMENCES FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH A
NICE SHOT OF MODIFIED CANADIAN AIR PUSHING INTO THE
REGION...TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL TODAY WHEN MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S. MONDAY WILL SEE MOST AREAS
NEAR 70...AND THEN SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...LOWS WILL NOT BE
THAT FAR BELOW NORMAL. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED COOLER ACROSS THE
BOARD...AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO DIFFER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

A PESKY MID LEVEL LOW WILL BE IN THE EXTENDED WEATHER PICTURE AT
LEAST INITIALLY. THE MED RANGE MODELS SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE NOT
NECESSARILY STABLE...HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY LATELY TO KEEP THE LOW A
BIT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST...CLOSER TO THE PAH FORECAST AREA
INITIALLY. THEREFORE...IF THE FORECAST PANS OUT...THE FEATURE WILL
PROVIDE IMPROVED INSTABILITY FOR OUR REGION PLUS AN ERLY FETCH OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL PROBABLY TRANSLATE INTO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...MAINLY DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...FIRST IN WRN KY ON WED...THEN MAINLY THE ERN
HALF OF THE REGION THU. BY FRI...THE LOW SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY
(TOWARD FL) TO ALLOW SUBSIDENCE TO SUPPRESS MOST DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION.

HOWEVER...BY FRI NIGHT MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY DIVING THROUGH IL MAY
IMPINGE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THIS
ENERGY MAY PROVIDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS MAINLY ACROSS SRN IL/SWRN IN/KY PENNYRILE REGION FRI NIGHT/SAT.
NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL APPEAR IN THE MODEL DATA.

EXPECT A SLOW TICK UPWARD IN TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...INTO THE MIDDLE 80S BY DAY 7. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER MAY HAVE
AN EFFECT ON PEAK TEMPS BY PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE
THOUGH. AT THIS TIME...MODELS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS WILL STAY IN THE
MIDDLE 60S...MEANING ONLY MODERATE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

IFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SCATTERING OUT AT KCGI AND KPAH AS MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW LINGERING TO OUR SOUTHWEST...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
EVENTUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO KPAH AND KCGI. THEY COULD RESULT IN
MVFR VISIBILITIES...BUT MAY HELP ERODE ANY LOWER CEILINGS. WHERE
LOW CEILINGS REMAIN TONIGHT...THEY ARE LIKELY TO LOWER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS



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