Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 300805
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
305 AM CDT Thu Oct 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Medium to high forecast confidence in the short term.

Precipitation chances make their way into the northwest third of our
CWA this afternoon as a sharp short wave diving southeast out of the
northern plains pushes a surface low and trailing cold front toward
our region. With moisture still expected to be somewhat limited with
this feature, precipitation chances should remain rather small.

Tonight with the passage of said low and front, the deeper moisture
and precipitation chances will shift to the northeast half of our
CWA which will generally be along and north of the track of the low.
Small precipitation chances may linger into Friday over the far
eastern sections of our CWA on the back side of the system in the
wrap around moisture.

Friday night in the wake of the front, high pressure and some of the
the coldest air (upper 20s to lower 30s) of the season will begin to
overspread the region. The main limitation for frost late Friday
night will be gradient wind flow which will inhibit widespread
frost development. The best frost potential Saturday morning will be
patchy in protected areas. Even though frost formation is expected
to be limited, temperatures dipping to at or below freezing by early
Saturday morning should bring an end to the growing season.

Temperatures should be even colder late Saturday night as the high
is forecast to be centered over the region. With winds expected to
be calm area wide late Saturday night, frost formation should be
widespread.

Even with temperatures expected to bottom out at or below freezing
Friday night and especially Saturday night, for a couple of reasons
will refrain from issuing any frost/freeze headlines at this time
and will punt to the day shift. The first reason is that with the
winds staying up Friday night, there maybe enough shallow mixing to
bump temperatures up a degree or two, especially over the southern
half of our CWA. Secondly, Friday night is the 4th period of the
forecast which pushes the time limits of the definition of a watch
product. Decided to continue with a strongly worded Special Weather
Statement to address the upcoming cold snap.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Sunday and Monday should remain dry with an upper level ridge making
its way across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio valleys.
Surface high pressure east of the PAH forecast area will give us
southerly winds beginning on Sunday and lead to a gradual warm up.
Temperatures will remain well below normal Sunday and Sunday night,
warming up to near seasonal readings for Monday and Monday night.

Models show a low pressure system sliding across southern Canada,
bringing a cold front into the region Monday night into Tuesday.
GFS is the fastest model spreading precip into and across the fa
late Monday night into Tuesday night.  The latest ECMWF is trending
slower than its previous run, and now focuses precip more on Tuesday
night into early Wednesday.  Leaned more toward the more consistent
timing of the GFS.  Continued with chance and slight chance pops for
our northwest half of counties Monday night, then chance and likely
pops Tuesday into Tuesday night.  Precip chances should taper off
from northwest to southeast on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

Aside from the possibility of MVFR fog at KCGI from 08-13Z, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period. As high pressure moves
off to the east today, an upper level disturbance will push a cold
front across the sites tonight which may produce scattered
showers late in the period at KEVV/KOWB where moisture will be
deepest. Calm to light and variable winds early will pick up out
of the south AOB 5 knots after 15Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RST







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