Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260915
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 251 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

Today will be warm/mild and pleasant, as High pressure anchors
over the Southeast. Return flow slys will be the only damper on
temps that will be climbing into the 50s for highs.

The return flow will also pump some moisture back into the column,
as a developing weather system takes shape to our west. It moves
in from the west later tonight, and especially on Saturday. Pops
will spike in the high likely to categorical range Saturday into
Saturday night, mainly across southern counties, as the broad
carving of the mean long wave trof occurs across Tx. This keeps
the warm/moist fetch wide open thru the weekend as the surface
system makes passage Saturday, but overrunning rains continue into
Sunday.

With the surface lows ejecting out of the mean long wave trof
taking a track south and east of the PAH FA, thunder chances
should likewise stay south and east of us. However, some elevated
instability does exist in the form of Total Totals near 50, and
K`s into the 30s. It`ll be something to watch for, but not include
any thunder mention in the forecast, as again, it should stay
primarily south and east of us.

Storm system QPF will be highest (about 3/4") in our southeastern
counties, tapering to about a quarter inch in our northwestern
counties. By the time the column starts to cool enough for a
changeover, the pcpn is drawing to an end late Sunday into Sunday
night, so nothing is forecast other than liquid pcpn for this event.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means were in decent agreement in their
solutions at this time with the developing split flow across the
CONUS.

As sfc pressures continue to rise through mid week, the mid/upper
flow over the PAH forecast area will transition from wswrly to
wnwrly. Meanwhile, the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models have a strong signal for
a surge of arctic air to sweep out of the nrn stream and into our
area early Wed, dropping the dewpoints into at least the single
digits, possibly lower, for about 24 hrs. After a dry and frigid
Wed, the primarily nrly sfc winds should return to a swrly direction
by Thu, helping to boost temps and especially dewpoints somewhat. At
this time, the 00Z model runs suggest that the extended forecast
will be dry for the PAH forecast area (through 00Z Fri), after which
a large scale moist warm advection pattern will develop ahead of an
ejecting swrn CONUS mid level low. Added some GFS MOS into the
initialization blend temp numbers, and modified the dewpoints mid
week to reflect the arctic signal better.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 251 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2014

High clouds will stream in today and lower and thicken as we move
toward evening and a weather system approaches from the west. Pcpn
chances for terminals should hold off til Saturday. Slys may pick
up and gust thru the teens at times this pm.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM...DB





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