Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 061739
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

The rains have exited the area as expected by midday, but the low
clouds remain. Would expect the clearing over much of southeast
Missouri to fill back in early this afternoon, and then the real
clearing will move in from the northwest late this afternoon. High
temperatures are only a few degrees above 17Z readings, so do not
expect much change based on the cloud forecast.

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 202 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

Low pressure tracking northeast from the TN River Valley into the
upper OH River Valley region will continue to bring scattered to
numerous showers to much of the region early today. The precip
will begin to taper off from west to east during the morning as
the low exits the region. Drier air will continue to work into the
region tonight and Wednesday as high pressure presses southeast
from the Dakotas.

A weak, moisture-starved upper level disturbance will work its
way into the MS River Valley Wednesday evening. It may generate a
few snow flurries, generally along/west of the MS River, but no
impacts are expected. High temps may not make it out of the upper
20s up along the I-64 corridor on Thu, with other locations
struggling to get into the lower to mid 30s. Readings Thu night
will fall into the mid/upper teens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 202 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

High pressure will be sprawling from central Canada down into the
central and southern Plains states at the start of the period. Winds
will become pretty much light and variable during the day on Friday,
as the center of the aforementioned high pressure system moves
overhead during the day. It is transient though and begins moving
east Friday night. But, barring any substantial cloud cover,
temperatures will drop into the teens once again Friday night. Winds
will then become southerly by Saturday and we will finally see a
jump in our high temperatures. Most locations should reach the upper
30s to near 40 degrees.

Models are still in poor agreement on the weekend system with
regards to the synoptic details and timing. Confidence is growing
that Saturday will be dry though. However, chances for precipitation
will begin either Saturday night and especially by Sunday.
Precipitation chances will continue through the rest of the weekend
but should be ending sometime on Monday. Still a lot of details to
be ironed out with this upcoming event but most of the event looks
fairly warm. There will be chances for frozen precipitation at times
however. But at least for now, there is no signal for any major
accumulation.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1138 AM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

MVFR ceilings will be the rule through the afternoon, with the
primary clearing line progressing steadily southeast through
Missouri at this time. Went with clearing from northwest to
southeast through the TAF sites this evening. Gusty northwest
winds this afternoon will slowly diminish this evening. The
pressure gradient will weaken significantly overnight, so winds
may become light and variable. Will not be surprised if there is
some fog development late tonight, but no guidance is really
hitting that possibility yet, so will leave it out for now.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...DRS



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