Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 291550
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1050 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1050 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Grid updates complete. Lowered high temperatures. Based on radar,
categorical PoPs required srn 1/2 of the area, and faster than
what the inherited forecast was. Second, more northern precip area
over south central Missouri will track into SEMO, southern IL this
afternoon, so PoPs raised farther north as well. KEVV tri- state
still the last to get in on the precip, so kept PoPs lower there
for now. More updates probable, but at least this should take the
forecast in the right direction.

UPDATE Issued at 1007 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Will monitor closely temperature trends over the next hour. The
easterly trajectory along with a dense high canopy means we may
end up noticeably cooler than forecast. May have to raise PoPs to
categorical as well for the southern 1/3 of the area especially
just north of the TN/AR state lines. So by 1115 a.m. or so, we
should have a more complete update and hopefully a better handle
on near term trends. Thunder chance still in play.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Pattern change is on the way, but not before we experience one
more pleasant weather day today as we close out the work week.
Filtered sunshine will help highs range through the 70s, and an 80
degree reading or two is not out of the question.

As a powerful jet rounds the base of the mean trof out West,
translating height falls to the southern Plains, Low pressure
develops/evolves and the teleconnected flow backs across the mid
Mississippi river valley. This will allow a surge of ample
moisture awaiting transport, and as the Low(s) move eastward out
of the Plains, they`ll shoot pieces of energy across their
attendant boundaries...resulting in several rounds of showers and
storm across the Quad State and surrounding areas for the weekend.
We`ll see 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts, on average, by the time it
all draws to an end Sunday night.

Despite the coming clouds/rain this weekend, we`ll still see
spring like Highs ranging in the 70s, with lows around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Confidence in the long term is fairly low given the challenging
evolution of the upper air pattern next week and the consistent
inconsistencies between models and model runs. The chaotic nature of
the upper air pattern is such that confidence will probably not
increase until this weekend system moves out.

For Monday through Tuesday, we will be watching how energy out west
behaves and whether or not enough moisture returns to give us a
chance for precipitation. The 12Z/00Z ECMWF is an outlier with
bringing precipitation into the area Monday night and Tuesday and it
was that way with last nights 00Z run as well. It is also much
quicker with another, stronger trough that was slated to move
through on Wednesday. The GFS and Canadian keep all precipitation
south of us for the first part of the week but are more consistent
with the timing of the Wednesday afternoon/early evening frontal
passage and subsequent precip chances, which are small.

Do not want to keep flip flopping the forecast for early this week,
as precipitation chances were already dropped. However,
collaboration issues will make a reintroduction of POPS necessary
for Monday night and Tuesday for the far southern areas, as the
ECMWF does not want to give up on the idea of rainfall across these
areas. They are just slight chances in the far southern counties.

As far as temperatures, we are looking for highs in the 70s and lows
in the 50s. The only exception will be on Monday, were highs will
only in the upper 60s in the northern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Apr 29 2016

Clouds will slowly but surely increase, with bases lowering, with
time, as a storm system evolves out west and begins its approach
toward the Mississippi valley. By tonight, low end VFR cigs
accompanied by vicinity showers will likewise be on the increase,
with further deterioration of flight conditions, including
restricted CIGS/VSBYS, anticipated heading into tmrw/the next
forecast issuance.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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