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000
FXUS63 KPAH 101916
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
116 PM CST Tue Dec 10 2013

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Temperatures starting to rise above 32F for the southern part of
the FA at least this pm, along with full sunshine, a good day for
melting and hopefully/presumably along with it, road improvements.

Another cold night tonight as High pressure translates eastward
across the TN valley, with current td`s in the teens prob close to
our overnight mins. Could see some patches of freezing fog in
preferred locales again.

We warm up tomorrow, ahead of a reinforcing shot of cold air, to
high temps in the upper 30s/near 40 across our south. The front
makes entry into nrn ptns of the region by midday, so highs there
may be stopped at/near the freezing mark. There shouldnt be too
much cloudiness with it, although some increase in model
time/height cross sections does reveal it. Along with some gusty
winds, it should still be another day of melting facilitation,
particularly across the southern half of the region.

The reinforced arctic shot is a good one, with a 1040mb High
sinking south over MO and ushering much colder, and drier air down
the middle MS valley and overtop us. Look for td`s to drop to zero
or even negative numbers along our northern border, with single
digits commonplace, and low temps to approach those numbers Wed
night. With such a cold start Thursday morning, we`ll be hard
pressed to make a 30 degree daytime warmup even with full sun, so
highs will struggle to exceed the freezing mark.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

The 00Z GFS, ECMWF, and GEM are in very good agreement this weekend,
and the GFS and ECMWF are still in decent agreement for early next
week.

Surface high pressure will be shunted east of the area early Friday,
as a weakening storm system lifts east northeast out of the Southern
Plains. South winds will develop quickly Friday, allowing very
modest low-level warm, moist advection into the region. The models
may be too wet with their QPF given the weakening system, and
limited moisture. The model consensus is for 1-2 tenths of liquid
north with 2-3 tenths of liquid south.

At this time, it appears that the precipitation will not spread into
the west until Friday afternoon, and after SEMO warms above
freezing. Cannot completely discount the possibility of some very
minor precipitation in the morning, though, so will have to mention
freezing rain along with rain and sleet. Could see anything reach
the ground in the saturation process, but it will most likely be
above freezing before that happens across the area. For the
afternoon, likewise, will have to leave some sleet and even snow to
go with rain or freezing rain mainly along I-64.

The brunt of this system will move across the area Friday night, but
low-level winds will maintain a southerly component, as larger-scale
troughing aloft re-develops over the Southern Plains. The result
should be slow warming for much of the night, so any ice/snow
accumulations should be very minor. The lift and saturation may be
deep enough to support some snow across the north, but otherwise,
impacts will be determined by the surface freezing line. In addition
to the mention of snow in the north, will also mention freezing rain
in the north and west. The moist layer is quite shallow, and it
would most likely end up as drizzle or freezing drizzle late Friday
night and very early Saturday morning. Will leave chance pops in the
southeast for Saturday, but this would most likely be drizzle again.
Surface temperatures should be above freezing by 14Z throughout the
area, so will not mention anything but rain at this time.

The remaining mid/upper-level trough over the Plains will lift
northeast Sunday, as a fairly strong clipper system dives southeast
toward the Great Lakes. Cannot rule out light precipitation, mainly
in the east, Saturday night or Sunday, as this system drags its
heels through the area.

The ECMWF is not as amplified with the clipper system, and has much
weaker surface high pressure coming in behind it. The GEM and GFS
each show another 1040mb surface high coming down, so the potential
is there for another sharp downturn in temperatures Sunday and
Monday. The GFS and ECMWF transition the upper flow to more of a
broad, low-amplitude cyclonic flow across the entire nation by
Monday. Certainly could see smallish disturbances rotating through
the area Monday into Tuesday, but confidence in the timing is quite
low at this time. Right now, both models bring some light QPF
through the region with a disturbance and cold front next Tuesday
night.

All in all temperatures should remain below normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

Included some gustiness this pm for mainly the northern terminals
(KEVV/KOWB) as 2ndary perturbation rounds upstream trof...observed
gusts uteens-lower 20s kts noted across central IL-IN
could/should translate southward and offer at least a few hours of
a brief glancing blow. Otherwise should see relaxation in pressure
gradient force after sunset, with VFR conditions anticipated.
However, may see patches of fog develop late tonight-early tmrw
am in favorable areas like KCGI terminal, so included a tempo
mention of MVFR restricted vsby for a couple hours there. By the
end of the planning period, swlys are picking up ahead of a
reinforcing shot of cold air that will be making its passage and
shifting the winds strongly/abruptly to nwly, with associated
gusts approaching 20 kts and model forecast time/height cross
sections suggest probably a lowering VFR deck of sct-bkn clouds
with its passage.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$