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000
FXUS63 KPAH 162329
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
629 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

Updated for aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

A storm system tracking just to the south and east of our region
today has produced a broad area of overrunning precipitation across
the region. Precipitation that started off as rain early this
morning has slowly transitioned over to sleet and/or snow over
approximately the northwest half of our CWA as of the time of this
writing. Per model soundings, etc this trend will continue through
the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. As the
system moves off to the east this evening, snow and/or sleet will
end from west to east.

Freezing precipitation doesn`t appear to be a threat anymore so any
wintry weather accumulations should be in the form of sleet and/or
snow. Although we are not looking for any heavy accumulations, minor
accumulations of 1-2 inches are possible mainly in the advisory
area, especially the northwest and western sections. South and east
of the advisory area mainly a dusting of sleet or snow is
expected.

High pressure in the wake of this system will keep the region dry
through Tuesday. A frontal passage with limited moisture may produce
a few light rain showers generally over the northeast half of the
CWA Tuesday night. Well below normal temperatures at the beginning
of the period will rapidly rebound back to near normal readings by
the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

Medium to high confidence in the extended.

The long term is relatively quiet compared to the short term with
one exception by the end of the work week.

A weak cold front will be poised to move through the region by mid
week. The front will be mostly dry but an isolated shower cant be
ruled out...but little if any impact with temps falling just a few
degrees from the previous day. Then slowly warming as we head
through the week. A stronger front is expected Friday night bringing
a little better change of widespread rain. Another system skirts
just south of the area Sunday but most of the precip appears remain
south. The GFS actually shows a split system with one staying to
north and one to the south. We will have monitor for possible
introduction of pops but will keep it dry for now.

As for temps will start to warm up to near normal just prior to the
mid week cold front. Then we will drop slightly Wednesday then start
a warming trend of the next system Friday night. Then back below
normal for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 628 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

Area of precipitation over the area along with some MVFR
cigs/vsbys will continue to dissipate over the next few hours.
Ceilings should lift to VFR levels at some point through the
evening, and eventually scatter out. Strong northeast winds will
prevail well into the evening before finally weakening overnight.
We should see clearing skies by Monday afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM CDT Monday FOR ILZ075>078-
     080>088.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM CDT Monday FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107.

IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 1 AM CDT Monday FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...NONE.
&&

$$