212
FXUS63 KPAH 140427
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1127 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
  each afternoon for the next week. The strongest storms may
  pose an isolated threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will
  accompany all storms.

- The work week will start out with seasonable heat and
  humidity, but heat indices will climb into the triple digits
  throughout the region Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms near the
Mississippi River will continue to move slowly northeast across
the Quad State through the remainder of the afternoon and into
the evening. DCAPE values are much lower than the last few days,
so there won`t be as much evaporative cooling to generate such cool
outflows and the stronger winds. An isolated damaging wind gust
cannot be ruled out, but they should not be as prevalent as
yesterday. Otherwise, the isolated to scattered afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will continue daily through next
weekend. All storms through the week will be capable of
producing brief torrential rainfall, due to the extreme
moisture content of the atmosphere.

High pressure aloft will gradually build across the Quad State
through the work week, which should eventually limit the
coverage of the diurnal convection to some degree, but it will
not be strong enough to prevent it altogether. In concert with
that lesser coverage of convection, temperatures will gradually
trend upward. The entire area should be in the 90s by Wednesday
and some middle 90s will be possible by Thursday. Humidity will
be in full bloom as well, so heat indices will reach the
100-105 range throughout the region Wednesday through at least
Friday. There are signs that a weak frontal boundary may slip
south into the Quad State Friday through next weekend, and that
should lead to increased coverage of convection and a slight
cooling trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Minimal changes from the last TAF issuance. Still seeing SHRA
and at times embedded TS north of CGI. Expecting most of this
activity to remain away from the terminals although this
issuance does carry VCSH at EVV and OWB. Guidance remains
consistent that low stratus will spread south into the northern
and eastern terminals this morning with LIFR conditions possible
at MVN. Ceilings may be slow to improve to VFR until late
morning or early afternoon. PROB30 remains for all sites Monday
afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DRS
AVIATION...AD