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000
FXUS63 KPAH 050537
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE DRY AIR IS REALLY CHEWING UP THE SNOW FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LAST FEW HOURS. IT IS BASICALLY DONE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA AND WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.
HOWEVER...WEST KENTUCKY STILL HAS SEVERAL HOURS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW TO COME. AT LEAST NOW THE ENTIRE AREA HAS CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 551 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

THE 18Z NAM AND GFS HAVE OVER 2/3" OF LIQUID QPF 00Z-06Z NEAR
PADUCAH...AND LOOKING UPSTREAM THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO STILL BE STREAMING INTO SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. LOOKS LIKE ITS GOING TO GET EVERY BIT AS DEEP AS
FORECAST AND PROBABLY DEEPER NEAR AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER.

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WINTER STORM UNDER WAY HAS BEEN UNFOLDING VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
ENVISIONED. STARTING FIRST THING THIS MORNING PRECIPITATION BEGAN
STEADILY CHANGING FROM RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING PRECIPITATION HAD CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AND/OR SLEET OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR
CWA.

THE CHANGEOVER TO FROZEN PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA WITH ALL AREAS CHANGED
OVER TO SNOW AROUND 6 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GREATEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF
WILL BE THIS EVENING AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BASED ON THE LATED MODEL DATA...NOT CONVINCED THERE WILL BE ANY
APPRECIABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA AFTER
09Z...BUT JUST IN CASE THINGS DON`T PAN OUT THAT WAY...WILL LET IT
RUN ITS COURSE FOR NOW.

MAY SEE SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY IN THE WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. BEYOND THAT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH SLOWLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE PAH FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG WITH SOME SUNSHINE WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL WARM UP.  TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S
SATURDAY, AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY.  THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NORTHEAST, AND THIS WILL OVERALL KEEP OUR REGION IN WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO MID WEEK.  WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE QUITE A
BIT OF SUNSHINE.  TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE EACH DAY,
WITH READINGS FINALLY REACHING NEAR SEASONAL READINGS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT, AND ACTUALLY CLIMBING ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS COULD REACH AROUND 60
DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

CONDITIONS BECAME RAPIDLY VFR AFTER THE SNOW ENDED AT KCGI AND
KEVV...AND FIGURE THAT WILL BE THE CASE AT KPAH AND KOWB AS WELL.
KEPT SOME IFR OR LOWER SNOW FOR 3 HOURS AT KPAH...BUT FIGURE IT
WILL BE DONE BY 06Z AT KOWB...SO DID NOT LEAVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW
THERE. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST INTO THE TEENS AT
TIMES...MAINLY AT KPAH AND KCGI OVERNIGHT. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
LOWER MVFR CEILINGS RE-DEVELOPING LATE MORNING AT KPAH AND KCGI.
MAY SEE FEW TO SCATTERED AT KOWB AND KEVV. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD
BE DYING OFF BY THE END OF THE DAY...AND ANY LEFTOVER LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD BE DISSIPATING WITH SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ILZ082-083-
     085>094.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR INZ081-082-
     085>088.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS