Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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962
FXUS63 KPAH 181126 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
626 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
MODELS SHOW THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY, MOVING JUST SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION
BY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. MODELS ALL SHOW WIDESPREAD QPF TODAY, BUT
THE MOST ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF
THE PAH FA. WENT WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MIDDAY, WITH LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE REST OF OUR COUNTIES. BY 00Z TUESDAY, PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH ANY
LINGERING CHANCES CONFINED TO ONLY OUR FAR SOUTHERN WEST KENTUCKY
COUNTIES BY 06Z TUESDAY. DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE
FILTERING INTO THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA ON
TUESDAY, WE WILL SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS BRINGS PRECIP INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI ON
WEDNESDAY, THEN WASHES THE LOW OUT AND WESDNESDAY NIGHT DRY. ECMWF
AND THE CANADIAN SPREAD PRECIP ACROSS THE PAH FA MUCH FASTER
ACROSS THE PAH FA AND TAKE THE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
KEEPS PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN, WENT WITH CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM WITH
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE REGION WILL BE UNDER
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

AS A STORM SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION BUT BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW H5 RIDGING OVER THE
AREA SO MORE INCLINED TO GO WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
SOMEWHAT WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE
THEREBY INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A FRONT...IFR/MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
WITH SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN BECOMING VFR WITH SHRA/TSRA ENDING.
SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS AOB 10 MPH GRADUALLY VEERING AROUND TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AOB 10 MPH AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/FIRE WX...RST
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JP



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