Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272340

540 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

As the East Coast Cyclone continues to move further away, we see
high pressure, both surface and aloft, working into and across the
Quad State from the Plains, tonight-tmrw. Another fast developing
system will come in behind that, with a cold front taking shape as
it moves overhead Wed night into Thursday. Slight chance Pops will
accompany the front, effectively, Wed night-Thursday, as it moves
east of us on Thursday.

Temp wise, after a brief rebound in temps today and tmrw, we`ll see
another slight cool off Thursday with the aforementioned cold fropa.
Blayer temps, even Wed night, look to be warm enough, however, to
support all liquid if/any of the small chance Pop appreciates.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Surface high pressure will settle over the region Friday, as
northwest flow continues aloft. The flow aloft will relax Saturday,
as a portion of the southwest U.S. upper low moves eastward toward
the region. This disturbance will bring widespread precipitation to
the region Saturday night into Sunday. Some light precipitation will
be possible in western portions of southeast Missouri late Saturday.

The GFS, ECMWF and GEM agree on this much, but unfortunately, the
low-level temperature profile continues to be problematic. The 12Z
GFS soundings support snow over all but the southeast third of the
area through the event. The 12Z ECMWF and GEM are warmer, and
indicate mainly rain. If the GFS verifies, some significant impact
is quite possible northwest of the Ohio. Will side with the majority
and the previous forecast for now, and keep mainly a mix in the
north, and just rain in the south/southeast. We will be keeping a
close eye on this system through the week.

By Sunday evening, the deep moisture is gone in the GFS and mostly
so in the GEM, but the low-levels cool enough to support some
flurries or very light snow. Would prefer to remove mentionable PoPs
from Sunday night, and just go with a chance of flurries. Of bigger
concern could be black ice potential as the cold air surges across
the region just behind the precipitation late Sunday and Sunday

The medium range models diverge for early next week with the upper
pattern. The newly upgraded GFS is the most amplified, but at the
surface there is little to debate, with cold high pressure over the
region. Temperatures will be well below normal Monday and Tuesday.


Issued at 540 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Low VFR and MVFR ceilings centered on the Wabash River Valley should
continue a trend of gradual erosion from the southwest and northeast
through the evening. Current thinking is that KCGI and KPAH will be
mainly clear by early evening, with clearing at KEVV and KOWB around
midnight. Once skies clear, VFR conditions should prevail through
the remainder of the forecast period with an increase in high clouds
on Wednesday. As high pressure shifts east of the area, light north
to east winds tonight will veer to the southeast and strengthen to
near 10 knots by Wednesday afternoon.



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