Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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264
FXUS63 KPAH 030017
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
617 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 617 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

KY Mesonet indicates wind gusts have dropped below 30 mph at most
locations, and this trend is expected to continue. Thus the wind
advisory has been cancelled.

Updated aviation discussion also.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Due to ongoing convection/tor watch CURRENTLY across much of the
region, will make this short term discussion as brief as possible.

In a nutshell, pre-frontal trof of low pressure will cross
eastern portions of the forecast region early tonight. Am a bit
concerned for some hydro/svr issues in that region. The southern
Pennyrile has already received up to 1.5" of rain this afternoon,
and redevelopment of intense convection currently just west of
Memphis, TN could work it`s way back up into that region early
tonight. Jury is still out on severe potential in our east this
evening, as the air mass will likely be overturned from storms
this afternoon.

Bigger concern for severe/tornado threat may be from near the MS
River east into the Purchase area of wrn KY and far southern IL
between now and 7 PM along the pre-frontal trof where impressive
instability for this time of year has developed, thermal cap has
broken, and shear values continue off the charts. If decent
storms manage to form, they could easily become surface rooted.

After midnight...convection will end with the passage of the sfc
trof, and dry slot will move into the region. Stronger cold front
still slated to come through most areas on Wed. The front will
likely come through dry. Main affect will be to knock temps down
even more to near normal value for early Feb. Max temps Thu will
struggle to reach 40 most locations, with lows Thu night down in
the mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

A wavy mid/upper pattern will continue across the CONUS in the
extended period. However, measurable pcpn is not expected until
early next week.

Early in the period, on Friday, the PAH forecast area will be under
a brief period of ridging aloft after a dry frontal passage. Sfc
winds are expected to increase from the sw by early in the weekend
and should remain out of the sw throughout the weekend. A mid level
shrtwv moving through the region should only provide increased
cloudiness on Saturday.

Rain-free conditions should continue until Sunday night/Monday. The
med range models are in generally good agreement overall with the
mid/upper pattern late in the extended period, but some finer
details differ in the model solutions as to exact timing of pcpn.

A large-scale mid/upper level trof and attendant sfc cold front will
be in our vicinity very late in the weekend. This will provide low
level forcing, upper dynamics, and improved moisture return for rain
shower activity to be generated perhaps as early as Sunday night in
parts of srn IL/swrn IN, but more certainly on Monday mainly east of
the MS River. By Monday night, height falls should create adequate
thicknesses for a transition from rain, to a wintry mix, to snow,
for the PAH forecast area, lingering through at least Tuesday (Day
7) associated with the very deep mid/upper trof across the ern
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 617 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Sfc winds will continue to progressively veer through the evening
and diminish below 12 kts temporarily, as a potent low pressure
system moves through the upper Midwest. Winds will pick up again out
of the west after daybreak to above 12 kts. IFR vsbys are likely
with lingering shower activity in the ern third of the region,
through midnight. A wrap-around MVFR cig is likely Wednesday
afternoon across the region.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...DB



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