Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 150502 CCA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Updated aviation section for 06z TAF package.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Low pressure moving from Ohio to Pennsylvania will continue
dragging our clouds out of the area. By tmrw morning, the Low and
its associated wave aloft will have opened up and flattened out as
it lifts through the remainder of the upper Ohio river valley and
rounds its way across the New England coast, with our area seeing
upper height recovery and regenerating lower tropospheric
southerlies. In the interim, we suspect that recently departed
clouds/moisture may allow for the clearing overnight sky/little to
no winds to have another potentially foggy morning, especially in
our east (similar to our west this morning), so we`ve included
that mention in the grids.

Thus commences a warmup through the remainder of the short term
forecast, as we see daily highs rise to/exceed seasonal norms in
the lower 80s. Similarly with Lows, seasonal norms being in the
upper 50s. This means we`re about to enter a period/including
the beginning of the weekend with highs in the mid 80s, maybe
upper 80s in a few locales, with 60s the rule generally for Lows.
This includes dew points ranging thru the 60s each day, which will
provide a little feel of summer time humidity to the warmth, at
least moreso than we have experienced as of late.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

By Sun morning, an energetic closed mid/upper low in south central
Canada will have a tight surface low reflection to its east.
Trailing southward from this low will be a weak cold front,
extending all the way to another surface wave in OK. This front, and
the energy aloft behind it, should impinge on the ridging over us,
lowering heights somewhat. There may be enough subsidence to
suppress any significant deep moist convection through the weekend
over the vast majority of the PAH forecast area. However, some
showers/tstms could sneak into parts of southwestern IL late Sun
night. This limited signal has been present in most of the medium
range models for quite a while. An additional ripple of energy in
the west southwesterly flow aloft may help isolated to scattered
showers and tstms to sustain themselves over a greater area in
daytime heat Mon, except perhaps for the Pennyrile region of KY.

Mon night through Tue night look mostly dry currently as the medium
range models show the eastern CONUS ridge aloft attempting to build,
in response to an large and expanding longwave trof in the western
CONUS.

A lobe or lobes of shortwave energy is progged by some models to
sweep through our region Wed through Wed night, generating another
interval of showers and tstms. Model solutions vary as to how this
happens, but the result is a more unsettled, warm, and moist pattern
as the overall longwave pattern dramatically amplifies over the
CONUS as shown by the EC/GFS ensemble means. At this time, best PoPs
in the extended forecast will be in southwestern IL/southeastern MO
Wed afternoon (around 50%). The forecast will be subject to change
especially after Tue, mainly with timing of any pcpn. Expect
southerly winds and above average temps for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017

Clear skies expected overnight, with MVFR fog likely at all sites
by 09z. There may be a period of IFR fog between 09z-12z,
especially at KCGI, KOWB and KEVV. After 13z, VFR conditions will
prevail. Light to calm winds overnight will become south around
5kts after 13z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RST
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...RST



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