Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 190458

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1157 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

For aviation section only.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Average confidence in the short term due to model disagreement.

High pressure in the wake of a frontal passage Friday night will
keep the region dry tonight. With the approach of a warm front
associated with a system over the plains, some warm advection
showers are possible Sunday morning over the far western sections of
our CWA. Models show H5 heights rising Sunday afternoon which should
tend to snuff out any chances for precipitation. The region should
remain dry through Sunday evening.

Precipitation chances make their way back into the forecast late
Sunday night as a cold front associated with the aforementioned
system approaches the area. Upper level energy upstream and the flow
aloft becoming parallel to the front should cause the frontal
boundary to become quasi-stationary E-W somewhere over our CWA,
depending on which model you prefer. Obviously the position of the
front will provide the low level focusing mechanism ultimately
determining when and where precipitation will fall, so will go with
what FB has provided which included POPs over all or part of the CWA
through the rest of the period. Models indicating enough just enough
instability to warrant the mention of thunder.

Temperatures tonight and Sunday expected to be a few degrees below
normal, then back to well above normal through the rest of the

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Forecast confidence in the long term is average but steadily
improving with time. Chances of precipitation continue to dominate
the forecast, but two time frames appear to present the greatest
potential. These include Tuesday and Tuesday night, then again late
Friday into Saturday.

The period will start off with an active zonal flow pattern between
a low amplitude ridge over the Rockies and a trough over the East.
At the surface, the cold front forecast to move through on Monday is
progged to stall near or just south of the forecast area. As a piece
of shortwave energy ripples through, the potential for showers and
thunderstorms should increase on Tuesday and then taper off from
north to south Tuesday night as the front shifts further to the

Models continue to suggest that Wednesday and Wednesday night should
be one of the drier time frames during the week as high pressure
migrates southeastward from the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley.
The only exception may be over the Missouri Ozarks which will be
closer to the best forcing and moisture.

A small chance of showers returns late Wednesday night and Thursday
as a warm front surges through the area. The capped warm sector in
the wake of the front should bring about a return to dry weather
Thursday night into at least the first half of Friday before a
strong storm system brings a better chance of showers and storms by
Friday night and Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to fluctuate quite a bit with the change
in air masses through the extended. Wednesday should be the coolest
of the bunch north of the front, while unseasonably warm conditions
are expected Thursday night into Friday night. The remainder of the
period should average near normal.


Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period due to surface high
pressure remaining in the general vicinity. Winds will be
light/variable overnight, then should turn to the south by mid
morning and remain under 10 kts. Any cloud cover, mainly in the
west, is forecast to be above 6 kft.




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