Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 181210 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
710 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

Updated the Aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

With high pressure in control through most of the period, very
little to discuss in the short term.

High pressure will continue to overspread the region today but a
short wave diving southeast across the area combined with decent
low level moisture will likely produce mostly cloudy skies over
the northeast third to half of our CWA with partly cloudy skies
elsewhere.

The high is forecast to be centered over our northeast counties late
tonight (Saturday night/Sunday morning) with clear skies and little
to no wind, so patchy frost may be an issue generally north and east
of a line from Mount Vernon Illinois to Greenville Kentucky. There
is still a certain level of uncertainty so will not issue a frost
advisory at this time.

The next item of interest will be the passage of a cold front on
Monday. Models in fairly good agreement that moisture will be very
limited with the frontal passage, therefore backed off on POPS
except over the northeast third of the CWA where moisture should be
a little more impressive.

In the wake of the front high pressure will overspread the region
once again and remain the dominant weather feature through the rest
of the short term period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

High confidence in the extended.

High pressure will be in control of the weather pattern throughout
the extended. A cold front sets up over the central plains late next
week but gets obliterated by high pressure as it approaches the
heartland. So seasonable weather is expected for this time of year.
As for temps they will be slightly below normal early in the week in
the wake of Mondays cold front then slowly warm to or slightly above
normal as we progress through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 710 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

High pressure will dominate all TAF sites through the period. A
deck of VFR clouds will drop southeast across the sites today,
especially KEVV/KOWB. Otherwise late in the period IFR fog
expected at KCGI with MVFR fog expected elsewhere. Northwest to
north winds AOB 10 knots will increase to 10-12 knots after 14-15
knots with gusts up to 15-16 knots, then drop back off to calm or
light and variable after 00Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH







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