Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 290925
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
325 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to so-so model agreement.

After a brief respite from the rain today, a cold front will cross
the region tonight. Ahead of the front, weak ripples of energy in
the southwest flow aloft will tap into enough moisture to produce
overrunning precipitation mainly over the southeast half to two
thirds of our CWA.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out as the GFS has been
more progressive keeping any precipitation chances farther south and
east. Instability hard to come by with this event, but threw a
sliver of thunder over the far southern Pennyrile region of western
Kentucky between 00-09Z tonight. Due to a relative lack of moisture,
only light precipitation amounts are expected with most areas
receiving less than a quarter of an inch.

In the wake of this system, high pressure at the surface and slowly
rising H5 heights are expected to keep the region dry through the
end of the short term period.

Temperatures through tonight will be above normal, then drop back to
near normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

Zonal flow aloft will prevail across a good part of the country at
the beginning of the forecast period, with a cut-off low developing
over AZ. Our region will be blessed with benign conditions through
the first half of the weekend. Starting Saturday night, the medium
range models indicated the low will begin to move eastward and open
up. Isentropic lift combined with increasing deep moisture well
ahead of the low should enable light pcpn to develop in our area by
then. Some light freezing rain appears possible late in the night,
mainly in the northern third of the region, and in the Ozark
Foothills.

From the latter half of the weekend and into Monday, the model
solutions diverge quite a bit, though the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means
don`t diverge all that much overall. The 00Z ECMWF/CMC appeared to
be faster with the forward speed of the opening southern stream
shortwave, and more amplified overall, while the 00Z GFS kept the
flow aloft over us much more zonal, and holds the low back a bit.
The pcpn shield appeared much more extensive in the ECMWF solution,
lingering it into Monday morning while the GFS rushes the pcpn out
by Sunday night, then brings it back in with overrunning associated
with the aforementioned southern stream shortwave.

Bottom line is that by late Sunday and into Monday, confidence in
any one solution is low at this time. Consensus suggests that the
latter half of the weekend will be wet, followed by a brief reprieve
early Monday, then a return of rain later in the day from the
southwest.

Temps should remain near seasonable averages through the extended
period, with no major cold outbreaks seen through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

Frustrating evening of chasing ceilings around mainly at KCGI.
Southwesterly low-level flow will be diminishing to around 5kts by
morning, but will continue to spread moisture northeast through
the area overnight. Not sure if this will be in the form of low
clouds or fog. Kept the forecasts at MVFR levels with a
combination of ceilings and fog overnight. Certainly cannot rule
out some IFR or lower conditions, but trends this evening have
lowered confidence in the possibility. This should not be a very
deep layer of moisture, so will have it dissipating by 15Z.

Lots of mid-cloud through the day with south winds increasing to
around 10kts across the region. A few gusts into the teens will be
possible. Another storm system will try to draw moisture back to
the northwest into west Kentucky Tuesday evening. Odds are that
any precipitation will remain south of the TAF sites and even
south of our entire area. KOWB is the most likely to see some
lower ceilings, but figure they will remain VFR.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS



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