Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 051737 AAA
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1137 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Updated the Aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

Weak high pressure was across the region early this morning, with
considerable low cloud cover along and east of I-55. Even where
the low clouds have cleared, high clouds quickly streaming
overhead. Today, focus will turn to H5 low center over north
central Old Mexico. This feature is forecast to reach southern TX
by 00z today, then eject NE to southwest TN by 12z Tuesday. This
model consensus track is a bit farther south than previous model
runs. Will not have much net change with respect to PoPs. However
QPF could be slightly lower, especially our NW counties tonight
through Tuesday morning.

To begin, the previous NAM versions of the past 48 hours were
obviously too fast, as it has slowed to a 3 day consensus of the
GFS/EC/CMC solutions. We delay start time to nearly sunset and
only along the TN/AR state lines. So essentially a dry day.
Tonight, we increase PoPs quickly through the evening, from south
to north. Large area of showers tonight, will shift east out of
the area Tuesday morning with the upper system passing to our
south and the deformation region departing. We kept a thunder
mention going tonight, though it`s still a bit unclear how far
north the elevated instability corridor will track with this upper
system. Tuesday afternoon and night will be dry. Most of
Wednesday will be dry as well.

The late Wednesday/Wednesday night system is entirely unimpressive
at this point. The long wave will yield only subtle large scale
ascent, with no surface reflection. Basically a chaotic moisture
field in the models, with elements never really coming together
for respectable precip. Will keep PoPs 20s and 30s, and QPF
minimal, just a few hundredths, if that. As far as type, a light
rain/sprinkle, flurry/light snow mix in the evening will
transition to just a slight chance of a flurry or very light snow
after midnight.

Temps throughout the short term will continue to be a blend of MOS
and base model blend output. This keeps us close to our inherited
numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 220 AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

In the wake of the Wednesday/Wednesday night system, strong Canadian
high pressure will be steadily building into our region on Thursday.
The tight gradient during the day will make for some pretty brutal
wind chills, which will be in the teens all morning and may remain
that way across parts of the area for the remainder of the day as
well. Some flurries may occur in our eastern areas early in the day
but low level moisture appears to move out fairly quickly. Seeing
the sun will make the chilly day ahead a bit more bearable though.

Overnight Thursday and into Friday, the gradient relaxes as high
pressure is centered just to our west. Even though there might be
some cloud cover to deal with up in the Evansville Tri State,
temperatures should have no problem dropping into the teens Thursday
night/Friday morning. The sfc high to our west will then shift east
and be centered over our region by 00Z Saturday. We will see very
little change in our high temperatures from Thursday to Friday, with
readings expected to be in the upper 20s to low 30s. Likewise, our
low temperatures Friday night will still drop down into the upper
teens to lower 20s as high pressure steadily shifts east through the
night.

Models have backed off the idea of a Saturday system and now are in
fairly good agreement of a chance for precipitation late Saturday
night into Sunday, ahead of an approaching cold frontal boundary to
our northwest. Any precipitation that falls during that time frame
would likely be snow but at this point, it does not look like much
with southern parts of the area having the best chance. Chances
appear better on Sunday but west KY appears to be the hot spot at
that time. During the morning hours, we would likely be looking at
frozen precip but by afternoon, temps warm up enough for all rain.

Things get interesting Sunday night into Monday as a boundary sets
up to our south and we get overrunning precipitation. Right now, it
looks like we warm up enough for this precipitation to be all
liquid. It will be one to watch however.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136AM CST Mon Dec 5 2016

While previous model runs insisted on clearing to VFR cigs today, latest
satellite imagery shows MVFR cigs already building back in from
the south. Expect MVFR cigs AOB 2kft to persist from this
afternoon through much of Tue AM. Rain will spread across the
entire region tonight S to N, bringing prevailing IFR cigs/MVFR
vsbys, with perhaps LIFR cigs/IFR vsbys at times around dawn.
Winds will generally be east AOB 10 kts today/tonight,
transitioning to NW overnight and strengthening Tue.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION UPDATE...BP2


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