Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 210658
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
158 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

The forecast is generally on track. The surface front is now south
of the CWFA into TN/AR. However KPAH VWP still shows SW flow at
850mb around 35 kts, with the 5k/ft boundary still mostly north of
the CWFA. Elevated convection continues in an axis across
southeast MO to the confluence of the MS/OH rivers and just east.
This trend of convection streaming ENE into the area should
continue with a slight northward shift through the morning per the
hi res model output. Upper flow expected to back slightly. Chances
of convection will continue into the afternoon as well, highest
SEMO, lower toward SW IN/KY Pennyrile in terms of PoPs.

For tonight, compact h5 low, s/wv will be over the central Plains
around 00z, and head east, ending up over MO by midday Saturday.
PoPs will increase substantially overnight and continue into
Saturday morning. Elevated instability parameters for thunder
still enough to warrant a mention per lifting parcels from 800-750
mb and low end MUCAPES. Best chance across our southern counties.

The chance of showers will continue Saturday night, and persist
across the southeast 1/2 of the CWFA Sunday through early Sunday
evening as the upper low deepens slightly and ends up over the TN
Valley region by midday Sunday.

Will continue to hold off on any hydro related watches. Should the
day shift see a better signal they can launch one. For now, think
temporally we are o.k. given the rains will be spread out over
time through Saturday. Having said that, a few water problems
cannot be ruled out. It will be cool today through Saturday behind
the front. Stayed close to MOS. Model preference was an even blend
of the NAM/HRRR/GFS in the short term, and a GFS/EC blend beyond
30 hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Forecast confidence in the long term is higher than average through
mid week owing to good model agreement and a general lack of
substantial weather impacts. Confidence reduces to average late in
the week with more uncertainty over the evolution of the next
weather system to impact the region.

Starting with Monday morning, the upper level low responsible for
the wet weather over the weekend will be positioned over the
southeastern U.S. As this low continues to shift east of the region,
an upper level ridge will build east from the Plains. This will
result in a period of dry weather at least through Tuesday night.

A small chance of showers and thunderstorms enters the picture by
Wednesday and Thursday as some forecast models bring a weak frontal
boundary into the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys on
Wednesday, then return the boundary to the north as a warm front by
Thursday. Models do not have a good handle on this feature, so will
keep rain chances low at this point. Models do agree that the better
chance for showers and thunderstorms will likely hold off until
later in the week with the approach of a much stronger storm system.

A warming trend is expected through the extended period. Highs are
forecast to moderate from near normal in the lower to mid 70s on
Monday back to near 80 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday. Lows
should warm from the 50s Monday and Tuesday nights into the 60s
Wednesday and Thursday nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

Convection forecast to continue along a line from around KPOF to
KPAH to K2I0 through daybreak, with a slight southward shift
possible. Elsewhere isolated showers expected. Front continues
south and has nearly cleared west KY and SEMO. Still has another
2-3 hours to go. Veering NW-NE winds will follow, generally at or
below 10 kts. On and off convective chances will continue today
through this evening. Highest probability area is SEMO, southern
tip of IL and west KY. VFR to MVFR cigs and vsbys expected. IFR
vsbys cannot be ruled out with most substantial convection.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$



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