Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 162239

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
539 PM CDT SUN OCT 16 2016

Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

This afternoon, we are on the fringe of a minor mid level shortwave
passing by to the north. This feature (and insolation) will create
enough lift through a deep enough moist layer for some low and
middle clouds to linger across mainly the western two-thirds of
the region, and these clouds are expected to diminish in coverage

West southwesterly flow aloft and a tightening surface pressure
gradient across the PAH forecast area will yield much above
average temps, plus mostly clear and breezy conditions for the
initial days of the week. Partially blended CONSMOS into the
provided max/min temps. MOS has been consistently suggesting highs
Monday/Tuesday a couple of degrees warmer then the blend (or more
at some locations). The occurrence of these mid to upper 80s
highs seemed likely with the deep southwesterly flow in place.
Thus, record maxes and max mins will probably be broken early this

Tuesday night, the models agree that a cold front will be
knocking on our northwestern door. This will introduce a slight
chance of a shower or tstm overnight for parts of southern
IL/southeastern MO. This will mark the beginning of a cool-down
period for a large part of the country.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

A cold front will approach the region early Wed morning as high
pressure aloft shifts east toward the se U.S. coast. The front will
not have much moisture or mid lvl forcing to work with at first, so
precip chances will stay fairly low through most of Wed.
The front will likely become stationary for a bit as the upper
steering flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a developing trof
out over the Plains. This trof will eventually interact with the
frontal boundary Wed night/Thu, increasing precip chances
considerably as the front begins to push se across the region. It
now looks as though much of the precip will occur in the post
frontal environment Wed night/Thu, so it`s still looking more like a
stratiform rain event as opposed to a convective/thunderstorm

Confidence has increased in the latter part of the long term as
models have converged on a more progressive and less amplified short
wave that should continue east toward the Appalachian Mountains and
East Coast Thursday/Friday/Saturday. Still, this will bring a
significant cool-down from the record/near record high temps of
Tuesday. Cooler high pressure nudging east across the MS River
Valley will bring temps back down below normal for the Friday/
Saturday time frame, with highs only in the 60s most locations and
lows in the 40s. However, a warming trend should begin by Sunday
as the high moves farther east and winds become more southerly.


Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun Oct 16 2016

Diurnal Cu today will return tmrw but probs be scattered as High
pressure at surface and aloft remains dominant. Increasing
gradient will make for stiff southerlies and gusts again tmrw pm
as well, not too dissimilar to today.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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