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000
FXUS63 KPAH 200157
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
857 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The clouds are holding strong over the Lakes and Pennyrile regions
of west Kentucky as of 0130Z. Don`t really see why they would go
anywhere, but even the guidance options that know they are there,
try to push them southeast overnight. Will have a slow trend to
the east with the clearing line.

Winds should go calm in most areas late this evening and overnight,
and as temperatures radiate down toward 60, fog formation is a
real possibility. Don`t want to go too far out on a limb with a
fog forecast until there are signs of it actually developing, so
will just add patchy dense fog over the entire area starting at
06Z, and will continue to monitor through the remainder of the
evening.

Used the LAMP guidance for temperature and dewpoint trends, and
that takes most areas into the upper 50s to near 60 for lows,
outside of the cloud cover.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The presence of a lingering H5 trough over the mid and upper Ohio
Valley combined with deeper moisture over the Pennyrile region will
produce plenty of cloud cover in that area through tonight.

Starting Sunday tho, H5 ridging will begin moving in from the
west. This will result in less cloud cover and bring a warming
trend that will last into early next week. Temperatures and
dewpoints will start off the period below normal but with the
ridge building in, these values will moderate back to near normal
by the end of the period...which means afternoon temps near 90
with heat index values 95 to 100.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The GFS/ECMWF ensemble means were in good agreement for this
forecast package. The trend lately has been toward a drier and
warmer pattern, at least through Wed(Day 5), with an expansive upper
high covering a large part of the wrn CONUS, right up to the
vicinity of the MS River.

The influence of an approaching and amplifying nrn stream mid/upper
trof and sfc front/trof will increase on Wed from the nw, but should
be greatest on Wed night, with PoPs no higher than 40 percent at
this time. Interestingly, the 12Z GEM has begun to show a tendency
to pinch off energy over the PAH forecast area Thu, like the ECMWF
has done over the last couple of days. Meanwhile, the 00Z ECMWF
became more progressive with the shrtwv, like the GFS has been the
whole time. Then, the 12Z ECMWF had the srn end of the shrtwv
phasing with a weakness over the Deep South shown by the
GEM/GFS/ECMWF, possibly resulting in lingering post-frontal PoPs for
the srn third of our region. So, some uncertainty of the smaller
details still remain among the deterministic models with this system.

For this package, we will go with measurable PoPs for the sern third
of the PAH forecast area during the day Thu, then dry as the front
begins to return back newd as a warm front. As the lower trop
moistens up a bit on Sat, the warm front should help to trigger
scattered showers/tstms across the area, mainly during the day.

Expect a brief cooldown for Thu into the middle 80s, with dewpoints
in the 60s followed by a general warming trend through Day 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 635 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Very weak pressure pattern through the period. Figure on nearly
calm winds tonight and a light northeast wind with mixing Sunday.

The main issue for aviation will be fog, possibly dense, outside
of the area of low VFR ceilings that will linger over the eastern
portion of the forecast area, including KOWB. The ceilings should
not reach KCGI and KPAH, so they have the best potential for fog.
The clouds will flirt with KEVV through the night, so things may
bounce around there overnight. Cannot rule out a period of dense
stuff there. KOWB should see more ceiling and less fog.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS