Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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545
FXUS63 KPAH 012242
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
442 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 439 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

Seasonally cool high pressure will continue to settle into the
region right through the end of the week and into Saturday as
well. This will keep things precip free until a weak short wave
aloft approaches the Plains Saturday night into Sunday. Will hang
with the notion that the event will be non impact and light, tho
some over our northern locations may see a bit of the white stuff
mix in later Saturday night into Sunday as surface temperatures
drop into the mid 30s. Light rain chances will continue for awhile
into the day Sunday, until the weak impulse scott by to the
east Sunday afternoon and drier air can may a brief return.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

High confidence early in the week decreasing a great deal by day 7.

Models are in fairly good agreement with the Monday into Tuesday
rain event. A closed low over the southwest US opens as it lifts
northeast with the mid level flow. It also becomes vertically
stacked with the surface low as it lifts out of the plains and into
the region. As mentioned yesterday there is no surface instability
to be found with surface based CAPE`s of zero and positive LI`s.
However in the southern portions of the area namely along and south
of the West KY parkway in KY and along US hwy 60 in SEMO...there is
some elevated instability. Albeit weak with showalters ranging from
zero to a negative three and K indices in the lower 30s. With this
showing up for the last couple of days introduced slight chance of
thunder. No big deal just a possible clap of thunder now and then.
After this the GFS and ECMWF really start to diverge as do the
ensembles with the next system coming with polar air in its wake.
The GFS keeps us completely dry while the EC brings a good deal of
moisture with it. Once again not high confidence in day seven
forecast but rain could change over to snow Wednesday night if the
EC has a clue. This will need to be watched closely for sure. Temps
will slowly fall to below normal as the cold blast of air comes in
mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 439 PM CST Thu Dec 1 2016

High pressure over the lower Mississippi valley migrates slowly
northeastward across the Tennessee river valley and toward the
Cumberland plateau over the course of this forecast. As a result,
a clear/clearing overnight sky with little/no wind will see some
high clouds start to appear tmrw as light westerly to
northwesterly winds develop on the northwest side of the ridge.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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