Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 120439
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 06z taf issuance.

Previous update issued at 730 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017...

Several modifications made to the near term forecast. We upped
lows tonight, given the clouds are going nowhere, per the light
mean 950-900mb flow from the north. Also raised cloud percentages
considerably all areas, with some breaks expected over the Ozark
Foothill region. Held on to the clouds longer farther west into
the CWFA for Thursday as well given the continued weak flow. This
will result in lower highs, especially from SW Indiana into the KY
Pennyrile over to the Ohio River. The NAM and RAP are the only
models that seem to have a handle and were followed closely. We
generally don`t concern with fog unless vsbys are at or below 1
mile. This an little observable sfc/blyr convergence through 12z
means drizzle is unlikely (stays north of the area). Patches of
insignificant P6SM drizzle can`t be ruled out entirely. So just a
dry, cloudy overnight forecast.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Stubborn deck of low level stratus has maintained a firm hold on
much of the area today. It is a fairly shallow layer with soundings
showing the depth less than 1000 feet. Some clearing has worked into
Carter/Ripley Counties and a fast erosion of the clouds is occurring
just to our south in Tennessee. The question is how far north does
this clearing make it before halting for the day. The northward
extent should be reached within the next hour or so, with the rest
of the region socked in through the night and into the morning
tomorrow. There may even be some southward expansion of the clouds
after dark.

Guidance is hinting at good fog potential overnight, but with
wind staying up just enough and clouds in place, wouldn`t expect
widespread fog. Stuck with the patchy fog mention for most areas.
May even be some light drizzle, especially in our northeast
counties late, closer to the surface trough pivoting through
Indiana.

Clearing should begin to progress from southwest to northeast
through the morning hours tomorrow, but clouds may stick fairly
tough through much of the afternoon in the Evansville Tri-State
area. With some sunshine, temperatures should warm nicely back
around 70/low 70s. If clouds linger longer in the east,
forecast highs may be too warm tomorrow.

Upper level heights rise on Friday in response to ridging
building north from the southeast U.S. This in combination with
southerly winds on the backside of surface high pressure will push
temperatures around 80 by Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Fairly high confidence in extended forecast with near record warmth
on Saturday replaced with cooler air early next week. We only have
one shot at precipitation during this time period, and that comes in
on Sunday into Sunday evening.

Upper level ridging will be in place over the southeast U.S. to
start the period, with an 850 thermal ridge extending into our area
on Saturday. This will lead to well above normal temperatures, close
to records in the mid to upper 80s. (Record highs are 88 in Paducah,
87 in Cape Girardeau, 90 in Evansville.)

On Sunday, shortwave energy moves across the Great Lakes region with
a cold front pushing into our area. The overall forcing and dynamics
aren`t near as impressive as they are further to our north, but
should still see a decent shot of some rain move from northwest to
southeast Sunday into Sunday evening. Still some subtle timing
differences with the 12z GFS remaining a bit faster with moving the
precipitation out. Instability looks marginal at best, so kept in
only slight chance of thunder with this system.

Surface high pressure builds back into the region on Monday and
persists for much of next week. This will result in temperatures
closer to normal or even a touch below normal for this time of year.
Highs may not make it out of the 60s for many locations on Monday
before rebounding into the low 70s Tuesday into Wednesday. With the
high expected to be overhead on Monday night, temperatures should
drop off nicely with MOS guidance hinting at even some upper 30s
possible in our northern counties near Mt Vernon, IL. Won`t go quite
that cold yet, but did nudge lows down a degree or 2 from what the
blend generated, into the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Main concern is when the low clouds will clear out of our area. Very
light low level winds are not doing much to push the clouds out. The
models keep low level winds light through Thursday, which means the
back edge of the clouds will not make much progress. MVFR cigs will
persist through the morning hours, and there could be short intervals
of IFR cigs early in the morning. During the afternoon hours, the area
of clouds will likely shrink from the south and west due to diurnal
heating and mixing out of the moisture. It appears that most locations
should become VFR by evening. Winds will be light through the period.
Some MVFR fog is likely during the early morning hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM...SP
AVIATION...MY



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