Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 272348
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
548 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 548 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

Return flow continues tonight, with a lead impulse generating
showers by midnight across our west counties, eventually area wide
overnight, though the KY Pennyrile may be late with lower chances.
Thunder chance will be limited to SW IL, SE MO for a few hours
when a pocket of instability aloft lifts NE with the wave.

As large scale ascent increases through the day Monday ahead of
energy moving NE from the Southern Plains and Arklatex regions
toward our area, widespread showers will increase in coverage and
intensity through the day. The front at 18z will be across central
MO into western AR. Very impressive wind fields develop during the
afternoon and evening. as the solid shield precip area shifts
east with time (decreasing coverage by 00z SEMO, SW IL). Question
then becomes, will any activity develop with the actual front,
where all the models point to some surface based instability. This
is still a big question mark. So as SPC shows, the marginal area
barely extends into SEMO, WRN KY. Too many question marks. This
instability is mainly derived from steepening lapse rates with
time, as we are only looking at upper 50s to near 60 for temps and
mid to upper 50s dew points right ahead of the front. Still think
we are mainly looking at gusty showers, maybe a few lightning
strikes due to lowering freezing levels. The activity will quickly
end from west to east 00z-06z, dry after midnight. Rainfall
amounts are slightly up from previous. 1.25-2.50" possible, still
highest SEMO, into far west KY. Typical model variances.

Tuesday is dry, then we have another chance of showers over mainly
southern and eastern sections of the FA Tuesday night as energy
aloft moves SW-NE across the area, coincident with an eastward
moving front.

Temps are mainly derived from Blend data vs. MOS. Could see rather
gusty winds Monday into Monday evening ahead of the front. In fact
winds could be more than forecast given a below 1000mb wave
develops along the front, enhancing pressure falls. Unfavorable
low level lapse rates however, may temper gusts. Thus no headlines
for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

The only really system we have been watching for the last couple of
days in the longer term period has been an upper level shortwave and
sfc cold front moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models
have not been handling the degree and position of the moisture surge
along and ahead of this front very well and have been very wishy
washy with their solutions. Some model runs showed the
moisture/precip to our southeast, some showed it arching back into
the eastern half of our area. Latest data suggests that while there
may be some lingering precipitation in our eastern counties at 12Z
Wednesday, the trend will be for the upper wave to continue
progressing eastward during the morning and pushing the
precipitation out of the area. Hate to keep flip flopping the
forecast for Wednesday and Wednesday night so will at least leave a
small hint of rain possibility in the far east for Wednesday
morning, which lines up well with the GFS ensemble precip mean.

Behind the frontal boundary which will pass through on Wednesday,
colder air will be advecting into the region. While temperatures
will remain in the 50s on Wednesday, even cooler readings can be
expected for Thursday and Friday. High pressure will shift
east into the region Wednesday night into Thursday which will
keep things dry.

Beyond Thursday, the main upper level system responsible for the
Tuesday night/Wednesday shortwave will continue to shift eastward
and weaken. At the same time, an upper level short wave dives south
across the western US and deepens into a cutoff low and slides into
the Baja Peninsula by the end of the day Friday. This scenario puts
our region between the two systems with generally high pressure
being the main feature at the surface. And that means little to no
chances for precipitation through at least Friday. This also means
no large swings in temperatures either. We expect highs to remain in
the 40s and lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s for the remainder
of the period.

The upper pattern becomes a little more disorganized for the weekend
and models are not in agreement at all so will leave dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 548 PM CST Sun Nov 27 2016

A major storm system will bring deteriorating conditions in
rains/showers beginning late tonight at KCGI and spreading
steadily eastward through the day. Not sure how much coverage of
showers there will be initially, but a solid band of heavy rains
will bring the worst conditions as it moves eastward through the
area during the afternoon. IFR or lower conditions are good bet
with this band. South winds will increase through the night and
be gusting by sunrise. The strongest winds with gusts well into
the 20s will occur at KCGI.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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