Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 051744 AAA

1244 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Above average confidence in the short term with very little to
discuss and decent model agreement.

High pressure at the surface and aloft should keep the region dry
through the period. Relative humidity time heights show low level
moisture with increasing mid to upper level moisture through the
period which translates to cloud cover but think there will be
periods of sunshine each day too.

Temperatures should be above normal through the period with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

The extended part of this forecast package begins with the approach
and onset of rain chances beginning Thursday afternoon and
departing Friday evening.

The main player for any cold frontal convective activity will be
west-northwest zonal flow that develops and persists across the WFO
PAH forecast area from Thursday through late Friday night. The
greatest forcing and thermal packing aloft will likely remain
north/northeast of the WFO PAH forecast area late Thursday into
early Friday, limiting widespread lift along the base of the
westerlies.  The closed low over the extreme southwest U.S. and
northern Mexico may briefly inhibit the forward speed of the mean
shortwave moving across the WFO PAH forecast area late Thursday into
Friday and may help briefly enhance lift along an impinged
deformation zone stretching from the southwest U.S. closed low to
the base of the westerlies.  The main impact with the
aforementioned interaction of the closed low to the base of the
westerlies would be to prolong the duration of precipitation chances
over the WFO PAH forecast area.

The ECMWF/Canadian have shown to be the preferred guidance with this
precipitation event since the middle of last week. The GFS has been
too aggressive in timing and QPF amounts. Given the recent data
ingest concerns, my confidence in the GFS solution is marginal
although I have overall higher confidence on the timing and intensity
of the event passed on the ECMWF and Canadian model guidance.

Otherwise, five degree above normal temperature values are expected
to occur before the frontal passage on Friday, with near normal
temperatures expected though at least next Sunday.


Issued at 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2015

Nrly/nerly winds today will be a bit more robust than Tue as the sfc
pressure gradient subsides, but still generally below 10 kts. Some
shallow fog may occur late in the night at the typical fog prone
sites such as KCGI. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected under some
high cloudiness associated with a minor mid level shrtwv,
particularly Tue morning.




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