Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 100537
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1137 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
Issued at 934 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
GOES Sounder Water Vapor Imagery showing gradual loss of deep
layer moisture from northwest ot southeast across the WFO PAH
forecast area. This in line with transition of the focused
(channeled) vorticity shifting east across the area. The loss of
moisture and lift is eroding the western edge of the intermittent
snow showers and flurries across the area. The current forecast
appears to handle this transition well overnight and into
Wednesday morning. The HRRR, Canadian, NAM-WRF, and GFS support
With the decreasing cloud cover (decreasing moisture depth) and
increased radiational loss with the marginal snow cover,
temperatures should continue to fall overnight at a good pace.
Even with a more relaxed wind gradient, wind chills will still
move into the single digit range. Will shift the focus of the
current special weather statement toward wind chills overnight.
Next chance for snow showers looks on tap for the afternoon hours
on Wednesday over Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 221 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
Time/height cross sections show ribbon of low clouds is going to
hang thru pm hours, and may well hang thru much of night for our
eastern counties...despite Satellite`s show of sunshine working
into western counties already. Snow showers should remain
scattered about into evening hours before diminishing, as drier
air does work down the column after midnight especially.
After a brief lull in pcpn tmrw, another lobe of vorticity
rounding the base of the mean long wave trof will squeeze out more
snow showers Wed night. Another burst of 1/2 inch snows, maybe a
little more, can be expected across the heart of the FA.
Temps remain below freezing thru the bulk of the extended,
although southwest counties will rise above for Highs on Thursday.
Wind chills tmrw morning at school bus time will be within a
couple or three degrees either side of zero for most of FA, tad
warmer south/west but still single digits.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 221 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
On Friday morning, the highly amplified upper pattern will still be
in place. A strong closed low over the southern part of Hudson Bay,
will move southeast during the first half of the weekend. We thought
that there would be enough energy aloft and moisture to warrant some
snow showers Friday and even though the better chances will be to
our east, we will be keeping the slight chance for snow in our
Another slug of cold air will arrive Friday night into Saturday.
While we may see a brief rise in temperatures on Friday, cold air
will be infiltrating into the area later in the day and continue
into Saturday along with strong northwesterly winds. Actually, we
will likely see temperatures on Saturday that are very similar to
what we are seeing today but we should see more sunshine on Saturday
which will help. This cold air will be arriving along with a
Canadian sfc high that drops southeast throughout the day on
Friday/Friday night. Models indicate the center of this high will
remain over the Great Lakes region but it will be close enough to
make for another cold night Saturday night/Sunday morning.
The next item of concern will be a system arriving on Sunday. Models
have definitely provided a bit more consistent signal when it comes
to this event, at least in timing. The GFS/ECMWF indicate a
shortwave will swing down from the north central Plains into the
area Sunday. While it looks like snow for a good part of the area, a
warm nose between 850mb-700mb could make things interesting for
areas like SEMO, where sleet and/or freezing rain could enter the
picture. The ECWMF keeps temperatures cold enough for all snow there
however. Just something we will need to keep an eye on for now as it
is way to early to get fancy with winter wx type. In addition, there
is some pretty decent looking QPF depending on the model and model
run you look at (12Z GFS/Canadian/GEFS have the highest QPF), so it
will definitely be one to watch.
The wave associated with this system should move east of the area by
Monday morning. So while there may be some lingering POPs Monday
morning, the afternoon looks good, at least for now. While some
models show yet another wave coming down the pike at us as early as
Monday night into Tuesday, models are not as consistent on that
Issued at 1137 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016
The 06z Wednesday WFO PAH TAF issuance provides a transition to
VFR conditions for KCGI and KPAH, with a slower transition for
KEVV and KOWB. The main change is moving from one system to
another and the intermittent transition in ceiling heights.