Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 262346
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
646 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Main concern in the short term is heavy rain/pulse severe threat
associated with the mcs over our region this afternoon. The
outflow boundary continued to sag south to the Tennessee border by
20z. The trailing end of the boundary appeared to have stalled
over the kpof area of southeast Missouri. A very moist and
unstable air mass continues to feed northward into the outflow
boundary and mcs. Surface dew points were in the lower 70s and
mlcapes were near 3000 on the south side of the boundary.

HRRR and SSEO guidance indicates there will be a gradual reduction
in convection along and north of the boundary tonight. However,
the process will be rather slow. Rainfall rates have been as high
as 3 inches per hour (per the kcgi asos this afternoon), which
bears out the flash flood potential in this soupy air mass. Will
allow the Flash Flood Watch to continue into the early evening,
but some counties on the northern edge will be cancelled. As far
as severe weather potential, there could still be a few cores
pulsing above severe levels along and south of the boundary.

Overnight, the hrrr guidance and sseo indicates an area of
convection will enter se Missouri not long after the evening mcs
fades out. The qpf forecasts of the lower res models such as the
gfs have been almost worthless in this moist southwest flow
regime.

A 500 mb shortwave will lift slowly northeast into the Plains on
Friday. This system should provide forcing for another round of
convection. The stronger upper forcing will pass to our north and
west, therefore the likely pops will remain confined to that area.
However, it is duly noted that pops have been underforecast over
the past couple of days. Given the continuation of very moist
southwest low level flow, heavy rain potential cannot be ruled
out.

Even though the shortwave will be undergoing a weakening trend,
another round of convection is possible Saturday. The air mass
will remain essentially unchanged as very moist southwest flow
persists. Pops will be in the 40 to 50 percent range. High temps
both Friday and Saturday are also a challenge due to the placement
of thunderstorm complexes. Will keep highs in the lower 80s both
days, but convection would likely make the duration of any 80s
fairly brief.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

A drying trend is still expected Sunday through Tuesday as weak
500 mb ridging replaces the departing shortwave trough. The low
level flow will veer a little more westerly, which should aid in
the drying. Isolated diurnally induced convection is possible
each afternoon, but coverage and duration should be significantly
lower than the next couple of days.

Wednesday into Thursday, 500 mb troughing will be traversing the
north central states. This trough will likely drive a cold front
southeast into the Lower Ohio Valley. Pops will rise accordingly.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Today`s MCS has mostly moved south and east of the TAF sites. Some
VFR light rain may persist for an hour or so at KOWB, and we will
be watching some scattered mainly light showers to the southwest
of KCGI for potential impact this evening. Otherwise, have a low
confidence forecast, which will be driven by convective trends
throughout the period. Right now confidence is only high enough to
mention TSRA at KCGI for the afternoon hours. Convective activity
will be lifting more to the north northeast tomorrow and should be
mostly confined to Missouri. Stay tuned for the inevitable updates
dictated by the latest radar trends.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS


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