Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 211108
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
608 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Aviation update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Heat Advisory will continue through Sunday. Peak values today and
Saturday will be particularly unpleasant, from 105-110F nearly
everywhere. Perhaps slightly lower some areas Sunday with a chance
of convection and clouds in the forecast, though still high
enough to warrant the Sunday inclusion. We generally used a blend
of existing forecast highs with the latest MAV/MET MOS. ECMOS may
be a tad too high.

In the big picture, the mid level ridge will very slowly break
down today through Sunday. A boundary will approach the area early
Sunday, and essentially stall through Sunday night somewhere
across the area.

Strong NVA region that put a lid on all convection Thursday, will
cycle south today. A corridor of weak to no capping sets up during
peak heating north and east sections of the CWFA, with limited
moisture. Would not rule out isolated (10 percent chance)
convection in this area given the return, albeit weak positive
vort advection.

Should be void of convection Friday night through Saturday as
drier air works across the area. As the boundary enters into the
area Saturday night and persists through the rest of the weekend,
will go with slight to low/mid chance PoPs pushing from north to
south across the CWFA. Coverage and QPF still in question given
the range of solutions seen in the short range models.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

The medium range models were in reasonable agreement overall with
the mid level flow pattern over the CONUS, as a broad ridge begins
to expand eastward in the wake of a departing eastern trof. However,
while the ECMWF shows higher surface pressures moving into our
region behind a cold front initially, as do the other models, this
model has picked up a secondary mid level trof in the central Plains
that may begin to move into the PAH forecast area by Tue. Instead of
a dry forecast by Tue afternoon, blending the ECMWF in resulted in
at least slight chance PoPs for the southern half of the region,
expanding across most of the region Wed morning.

Beyond Wed, the capping effects of the ridge should keep the
coverage of showers and tstms very low for most of our region,
except possibly the northeastern quadrant, which may get clipped by
convective activity generated from the more active westerlies to the
north.

Temps are forecast to be about average for this time of year, with
dewpoints beginning their drop into the 60s starting Mon night.
Exactly how far they will drop is a bit uncertain with the local
differences in the models. At this time, we will forecast afternoon
heat indices well below 100 Tue and Wed. The heat index may flirt
with 100 in some locations by Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 608 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

VFR conditions, except for brief MVFR fog early this morning and
again late tonight. Some CU today, otherwise occasional high
clouds. SSW winds below 10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>022.

&&

$$


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