Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
552 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

An active pattern is shaping up over the next several days. Many
topics warrant discussion with this forecast package, including
low clouds today, the potential for thunder tonight into early
Wednesday, unseasonable warmth Wednesday and especially Thursday,
and another chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night.
Fortunately, forecast confidence is relatively high with decent
overall model agreement.

But starting with the weather at hand, another dry day is shaping
up for the Heartland as high pressure continues to shift east of
the area. GOES fog imagery indicates the advection of low clouds
into southern portions of western Kentucky overnight. Both NAM12
and GFS20 925mb relative humidity depictions pick up on the clouds
fairly well. Both models suggest that while the clouds may continue
to creep northward into the area early this morning, they should
begin to shift east by late morning and afternoon as low level
flow becomes increasingly south southwesterly through the day.

Tonight through Thursday night, an energetic west southwest flow
pattern will become established over the Heartland. Increasing
Gulf moisture on strong low level south to southwest winds will
interact with at least a couple of atmospheric perturbations to
result in the potential for showers and perhaps even some
thunderstorms. The first such period of showers is forecast to
arrive after midnight tonight and last into Wednesday morning.
Forecast marginal elevated instability should support the
development of at least widely scattered thunderstorms over the
southern 2/3 of the area after midnight. The thunderstorms should
rapidly diminish Wednesday morning as warmer air aloft stabilizes
the atmosphere. Rainfall amounts with this first round are
forecast to range from one quarter to one half inch.

Rain chances decrease Wednesday night into early Thursday,
although it`s difficult to rule out the development of widely
scattered showers in the moist flow regime. Another round of
showers is forecast to arrive Thursday night with the approach
and passage of a cold front. Once again, marginal elevated
instability supports at least a slight chance of thunderstorms,
particularly during the evening hours Thursday. Rainfall totals
with this round should range from one half to one inch. Multi-day
totals in the 1 to 2 inch range should not be enough to cause
significant water problems, but some minor issues could arise in
locations that receive the heaviest and most persistent downpours.
Fortunately, temperatures through Thursday night are expected to
remain warm enough to keep the precipitation in liquid form.

A warming trend will take place through most of the short term.
Highs today are forecast in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with
readings near 60 on Wednesday. Thursday may turn out to be the
warmest day we`ve seen in quite some time, with highs in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Those would be warmest highs since late
November and early December. Breezy conditions will develop on
Wednesday, but it will be downright windy by Thursday with winds
sustained 15 to 20 mph and gusts as high as 30 mph forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

At 12z Friday, GFS and the Canadian show the cold front just
southeast of the PAH forecast area, while the ECMWF is a bit slower
and has it still in our far southeast counties.  Post frontal
precipitation will be mixing with and changing over to snow before
ending from northwest to southeast Friday into Friday evening as
colder air moves into the region.  With the wintry precipitation
potential on the tail end of the activity, any snow amounts are
expected to be little to none, especially with ground temperatures
likely pretty warm after such unseasonably warm temperatures in the
days prior.  Models seem to be wavering on just how far south the
front will move, which puts precipitation ending times in question,
but the preference right now is to lean toward the more consistent
GFS run.  GFS indicates high pressure building in the behind the
front, pushing it far enough south to give us dry conditions late
Friday night into Saturday night.

Temperatures will be near seasonal on Saturday, then with winds
shifting back to the south, we should see a significant warm up to
well above normal readings Sunday into Monday.  Overnight lows
Sunday night will be close to our normal highs.  A warm front
lifting across and lingering near or over the region will put us in
an unsettled pattern Sunday into Monday.  Models, in typical
fashion, vary in just how far north it will go and the overall
movement of front, but on and off shower chances look to be a good
bet at this point for the end of the weekend into early next week.


Issued at 552 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2018

As the center of high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to
shift eastward, northeasterly winds are forecast to veer to
southerly by this afternoon. A deck of MVFR clouds has progressed
northward out of Tennessee early this morning and will impact all
forecast terminals through the morning. Much of this is expected to
mix out by the afternoon, but scattered to broken mid clouds will
linger. A mid level disturbance will bring showers to the region
after midnight tonight. The potential for thunder is relatively
small but will need to be monitored. MVFR ceilings will accompany
the shower activity, and IFR conditions may develop towards daybreak




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