Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 262337
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
637 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

After a break in the showers tonight, the next H50 short wave will
move east into the central Plains and Ohio Valley regions on
Monday. Associated surface low will eject from nw AR/sw MO into
southern Illinois and southwest Indiana as we head through the
day and into the evening. This will put most of the region within
the warm sector out ahead of advancing cold front. There is some
uncertainty as to the degree of instability that can become
established as much of the day could be littered with ongoing
precip. However, models continue to insist on MUCAPE values from
1000-1500 J/KG with surface dew points approaching 60 degrees and
steep mid level lapse rates. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear values expected in
the 40-50 kt range and decent turning of the winds in the lowest 1
KM would be sufficient to support organized convection with
bowing segments and large hail the main threats. However, cannot
rule out a tornado or two if such an environment develops. The
entire forecast area has now been highlighted slight risk by SPC.
Locally heavy rainfall could also cause a few issues.

Cold front to swing through and end precip from west to east
Monday night, and a ridge of high pressure will then move in
Tuesday/Tuesday night. This will allow things to dry out, though
am not sure we will see much in the way of sunshine Tuesday. May
end up with a persistent layer of stratus trapped underneath the
frontal inversion most of the day.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

A large and amplified mid level trof/closed low will be over
northern TX by midweek. Shower activity associated with warm air
advection ahead of this system should begin to affect locations
mainly west of the MS River through Wed evening in the form of
mostly lighter showers. Isolated lightning is possible in the
westernmost counties of southeastern MO through then.

The showers will continue to expand eastward across the PAH forecast
area early Thu, with a possibility of a dry slot punching in from
the south, just ahead of the nearly stacked low. This could limit
the strength and coverage of tstm activity (and PoPs) Thu morning
and into the day. This possible minima of PoPs and tstm activity
will translate eastward during the day. The medium range models are
in better agreement than they have been at this time frame, but
timing of features can still be off by many hours, so there is some
uncertainty as to when the dry slot may have its effects. Wind shear
parameters aloft may be conducive to some strong tstm development on
Thu, but instability does not appear to be robust at this time.

Post warm fropa (sometime late Thu), PoPs will remain high but
thunder chances will diminish as the low skips by just to the north
of the PAH forecast area, leaving behind only clouds and showers
Fri. Some clearing of skies is possible late in the day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 637 PM CDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Winds will become light and variable this evening, and that may
allow fog to form before clouds begin to increase after midnight.
Opted to leave it out for now, but adjustments may be necessary.

Strong warm advection will bring an area of convection eastward
through the region from late tonight through the morning hours.
Look for a couple of hours of impact at each terminal. Hit TS
pretty hard at each location. There should be a few dry hours to
start the afternoon, but with an upper-level storm system
approaching, scattered thunderstorm development is a good bet by
mid to late afternoon. Just went the VCTS route this far out in
the forecast. The forecasts are VFR outside of TS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...MEFFERT
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...DRS


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