Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 220542

National Weather Service Paducah KY
1142 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 318 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

We are in for one cold night tonight, with the coldest temps so
far this season on the way. Wind chills were already in the 20s
in the nrn half of the PAH forecast area this afternoon. Behind a
cold front, nwrly sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 25 to 40
mph are expected to diminish quite rapidly from west to east after
dark. Latest data indicates that under clearing skies and lighter
wind conditions, lows will range from the middle teens to about 20
degrees across srn IL and the lower half of the 20s elsewhere.
Wind chill readings should be mostly in the teens by sunrise.

Fast cyclonic flow aloft will prevail through the weekend with a
lobe of sfc high pressure moving through the region. Into early
next week, though there will be a ridge of high pressure at the
sfc in the Deep South and quasi-zonal flow aloft, low level return
flow of any consequence is not shown by the models to start up
until the very end of the short term, hence the forecast is mostly
clear and bone dry, with an eventual rebound to near seasonable

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 334 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

High confidence in the short term for dry forecast lowers a bit late
in the week regarding the exact timing of the next toward the
next strong signal coming Thanksgiving into Friday.

An upper level low coming onshore over the Pacific Northwest late
Monday is forecast to dig into the Rockies by mid week. The low will
eventually phase with the main upper level trough over Canada by
late week. Successive perturbations ejecting northeast from the low
will bring more clouds and eventually significant rains to the area
by late in the week.

Dry weather is forecast to persist over much of the region through
Wednesday with near seasonal temps. As mentioned
earlier...significant rains seem to be on tap for late in the week,
esp later Thursday night through Friday. The main question is how
quickly it arrives on Thanksgiving/Thu night, and how quickly it
exits Friday night/Saturday. The 12z op run of the ECMWF is still a
good 12 hours slower than the 12z GFS, tho the models seem to be
converging some compared to last night`s runs. Will continue to play
a blended solution for now, which paints a soggy Friday for sure,
with chances increasing dramatically from west to east Thursday
night. If the GFS ends up closer to reality, Thanksgiving afternoon
could even be quite wet.

Another shot of chilly Canadian air will follow for the holiday
weekend. Most indications are that we should be drying out by that


Issued at 1142 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

MVFR cielings have slowed their progress across the area
significantly late this evening, but they should clear KEVV
shortly and KOWB by 09Z. Northwest winds will continue to
diminish, and with surface high pressure over the region, light
and variable winds are likely through much of Sunday. Eventually a
light south wind will develop at all sites, primarily for the
evening hours.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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