Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 270459
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AS EXPECTED CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND QUICKLY LIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AROUND
MIDDAY. SHOULD NOT SEE ANY OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...AS A COOLER...DRIER
AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
BEGINNING TO LOSE STEAM OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT
WILL LEAVE THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN INTACT TIL EXPIRATION.

THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EASTSOUTHEAST TOWARD
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WOULD BE SURPRISED IF IT SURVIVED ALL THE
WAY TO OUR REGION.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP DIURNAL CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO SEE NO
REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MOST GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
THE CONVECTION SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH WEST KENTUCKY INTO THE
EVENING...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN THERE WITH
LESSER/NO POPS IN THE NORTH.

GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY PUMPED UP AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS AND A LACK OF ANY TANGIBLE SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO GET MUCH CONVECTION GOING. A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...SO WILL KEEP
THE LOW/SLIGHT CHANCES POPS GOING.

WITH THE DIURNAL NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY...FIGURE THAT
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DRY. BUT...THE GFS DOES DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AS
MINOR DISTURBANCES IN THE WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STREAM OVER
THOSE AREAS. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST/WEST
JUST TO BE SAFE. ELSEWHERE KEPT THURSDAY NIGHT DRY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOONS...WITH MIDDLE 80S FORECAST...AND UPPER 80S NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. NUDGED LOWS DOWN A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST EACH
NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO LINGER AWHILE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WE WILL BE WATCHING HOW TWO UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS OUT WEST PHASE AS THEY EVENTUALLY TRY TO MERGE OVER THE
COUNTRYS MID SECTION. BY MIDWEEK...THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL BE COMING
ONSHORE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN MEXICO. BY 12Z FRIDAY...THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL HAVE DIVED SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHILE THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM ENDS UP OVER OK/TX. THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER OK/TX WILL QUICKLY SCOOT NORTHEAST AND BECOME
ABSORBED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM. SO IT REALLY ENDS UP BYPASSING THE
AREA. SO AS FAR AS POPS ON FRIDAY...ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE MERELY
BASED ON AIR MASS TYPE POP UPS. HOWEVER...WILL HEDGE HIGHER ON POPS
IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE
JUST TO OUR WEST AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL FLOW.

MEANWHILE...WE WILL BE WATCHING THE PROGRESSION OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO WESTERN TEXAS AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY...FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND HAVE ENTERING OUR REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A DECENT FOCUS FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH THAT WAS MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH THE ROCKIES EARLIER...WILL BE PHASING WITH OTHER SUBTLE
WAVES IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT AND MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS WILL
KEEP PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW MODEL RUNS ARE
ADVERTISING A CLOSED/CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE IN OUR
VICINITY. BUT I CAN ALSO FORESEE MODELS SETTLING DOWN A BIT WITH
THE BUSY UPPER FLOW AND WE COULD END UP DRIER THAN WE HAVE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK (I.E. LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF
IS INDICATING).

TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT THEN DROP
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S AS WE ROUND OUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AND SCT-BKN050 CUMULUS AFTER 15Z. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 16Z-02Z, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5
TO 10 KTS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RST
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...RST



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