Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 190840
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
340 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to
continue eastward through the Evansville Tri State and west
Kentucky through the morning. If there is enough sunshine, 06Z
NAM soundings indicate there may be enough instability to support
a few pulsy strong to severe storms this afternoon, mainly east
of the Lakes in west Kentucky. Wind fields are too weak for more
organized convection today. The primary upper disturbance should
push east of the area by sunset and that should bring an end to
any organized convection through the remainder of the short term
period.

The 00Z guidance continues to build an upper ridge northeast
across our region Wednesday and Thursday, while surface high
pressure settles in over the Appalachians. We should be dry both
days, but cannot completely rule out an isolated thunderstorm,
mainly in the heat of the day over west Kentucky. If an isolated
storm develops either afternoon, it will be pulsy again, as the
flow aloft will be very weak. Given the heat and humidity
expected, a stray storm may briefly pulse up to near severe
levels. Once again most, if not, all of the region will be dry
after today.

Southeast flow in the low-levels will keep temperatures from
really soaring past 90 degrees Wednesday and Thursday, but it
will still be 5-10 degrees above normal for both highs and lows
both days.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Fairly high confidence in the extended with decent model agreement.
The extended shows generally dry conditions due to high pressure at
the surface and aloft. However with southerly flow continuing to
pump in plenty of moisture and the occasional kink in the upper
level flow, there will be small chances for showers and storms. It
is here in the timing that the models differ a little. Sunday and
Monday have a better chance at isolated precipitation especially
during the peak heating of each day. Above normal temperatures will
persist through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1203 am CDT Mon Sep 19 2017

for the 06z Tuesday WFO PAH TAF`s, tempted to keep ceilings and
visibilities in the VFR category, with some visibilities in the
MVFR category through 12z-14z. A surface low and trough over
Southeast Missouri and Southwest Illinois will gradually lift
northeast toward southwest Indiana and northwest Kentucky toward
daybreak. There is some lower confidence on the evolution and
translation of the surface low and trough through the area
tonight, so added at least vicinity mention of showers for the
KEVV and KOWB TAF sites overnight.

The upper level trough axis should move through the region during
the morning, so anticipate VFR ceilings/cloud bases to dominate
through the remainder of the forecast period.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...ML
AVIATION...Smith


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