Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 111146
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
646 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Afternoon through Saturday night)
Issued at 500 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Rains should come to and end today as a cold front continues to
push slowly southeastward into Tennessee. The front will bring
more Fall like conditions for the rest of the week and right into
Saturday. However extensive low stratus exists all the way up
through the Midwest and Plains, so looks like we will not see much
of the sun until drier conditions mover in fro the weekend. a
weak over running regime could set up late tonight and Friday,
especially as one gets closer to the TN and AR borders. Therefore,
chose to increase chc pops for light rain at that time.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 500 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

Medium confidence in the extended weather. High confidence in the
cooler temps in the extended.

High pressure will build into the area in the extended and should
dominate the weather pattern. A couple of troughs move through next
week but moisture is limited. One moves through early in the work
week but both the 00z ECMWF and GFS paint less than a tenth over the
area. That far out will opt to keep the area dry although would
expect at least an increase in cloud cover and maybe virga or
sprinkles. But measurable rain remains limited in potential and
coverage. However this lends to the below normal temperatures
expected to prevail throughout the extended and will continue with
that trend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 645 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

With the passage of a strong cold front, showers and thunderstorms
producing IFR/MVFR conditions will continue across all TAF sites
through the first third of the period. After the precipitation
ends. MVFR cigs will continue through much of the TAF period.
Winds will become northwest AOB 10 knots in the wake of the front
through the first half of the period, then veer around to the
north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...KH





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