Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191144
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
644 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Weak warm advection along with a weak mid-level disturbance will
lead to increasing showers and thunderstorms over southeast
Missouri and the Purchase Area through the morning hours. Radar
trends support this idea, so will have PoPs increasing to at least
likely levels. There will be a rather sharp northern edge to the
activity this morning. This afternoon the coverage should dwindle
across the south, as the low chances spread northward through the
entire area.

Much of the area should see a lull for at least the evening hours
tonight. However, there is a decent signal for convective
development overnight and especially into Saturday morning, mainly
over west Kentucky, as another mid-level disturbance lifts east
northeast through the region. See no reason not to believe this
signal, so will have likely PoPs mainly over west Kentucky
Saturday morning.

The expected morning convection could have an adverse impact on
convective potential closer to the front Saturday afternoon and
evening. Instability will be difficult to find, and any
significant convection early in the day will only make
destabilization more difficult.

Given the mid and upper-level forcing with the trough, and the
surface boundary in the vicinity, some thunderstorms are likely to
develop, especially over the northern half of the area Saturday
afternoon and evening. Not so sure how much coverage there will be
over the southern half of the area, especially if there is
significant coverage of convection in the morning. The wind fields
will be increasing and may support a few brief severe storms with
primarily a damaging wind threat. The convection should pass
through the entire area Saturday evening, and it should dry out
overnight and be dry and significantly cooler Sunday.

With plentiful cloud cover and precipitation expected through
Saturday evening, small diurnal ranges will continue. Still
leaning above guidance for lows tonight due to stronger winds and
lots of clouds expected. Otherwise, stayed close to the consensus
of guidance for highs and lows. Sunday will be much cooler, with
highs near 80 with full sun. Welcome to fall?

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Above average confidence in the extended...mainly due to better
model consistency.

At the start of the extended models continue to be in firm agreement
with a surface high dominating the weather patter for the first part
of the week with some mild ridging aloft. We will start off the week
with temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal...then slowly
moderate to near normal by the end of the week. As the high slowly
drifts off to the east...a southerly flow set up as the Gulf opens
for business. This will coincide with an approaching cold front from
the northwest toward the end of the week. There might be some
isolated precipitation in the extreme northwest portions of the
area. Will wait and see what the extended init yields before making
final decision to include mention that early. Once again as we
approach the end of the week PWATs soar to around >2". Now here is
where the models have had some discrepancies. The ECMWF continues to
bring a cold front through Thursday into Friday...and now the GFS is
starting to come into better agreement. There is about 6 hours
difference in the timing but 7 to 8 days out thats not bad. The one
thing we need to be Leary of is if this front hangs up over the area
like this past weekend ones did. Which the models advertised it to
move through at seven days out just like this one next weekend. So
will monitor closer for any hints of such solutions drifting into
the models.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Showers will be spreading into KCGI and KPAH this morning. Cannot
rule out TS, but the coverage should be limited, so will not
mention in the forecast at this time. High confidence in MVFR
conditions this morning, and cannot rule out IFR. The coverage of
convection should slowly diminish this afternoon, but the chance
of TS will increase, especially over KPAH. There is a signal in
guidance for an increase in convection late tonight, but not sure
how much coverage will there will be prior to 12Z, so will keep
tonight dry.

KEVV and KOWB should see slowly improving conditions through the
morning, and it should remain dry. Cannot rule out a stray shower
or storm near KEVV and KOWB this afternoon and tonight, but the
coverage will likely be too low to mention at this time.

With persistent 5+kt south winds tonight, and plentiful cloud
cover expected, feel that guidance is way overdone on low ceilings
and fog forecasts tonight. Kept the forecast VFR at all sites
tonight, so the forecast is definitely optimistic.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...DRS



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