Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 261102

National Weather Service Paducah KY
502 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Issued at 502 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 300 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Had to add light showers/sprinkles to the forecast for early this
morning per latest radar trends. Temperatures also staying up as
southerly breezes persist. Otherwise the main challenge is the
heavy rain event, FFA headline. Briefly for today, kept a slight
chance of showers mainly west, with some retrogression west with
the chances by afternoon. Will be a mild and breezy day.

Overall synopsis...a large h5 low over the Intermountain west will
sit nearly stationary today through 12z Saturday, with an
energetic SW flow pattern across our region north of a ridge over
the Gulf of Mexico. The upper low will start to head east Saturday
night. A front will enter the region Friday and move slowly
southeast through Saturday. Meanwhile substantial H8 SSW
flow/moisture transport will develop and persist tonight through
Saturday night. Moisture will also feed into the system from
Sandra. The result will be occasional showers from late tonight
right on through the weekend, with locally heavy rain on tap. May
take a little longer to realize notable QPF across our far SE
counties in west KY toward the KHOP area.

In terms of storm total QPF, we think the NAM is too high. The
latest ECMWF backed down slightly on amounts. The GFS may be a tad
too high as well. If deeper convection to our WSW intercepts some
of the transport, this will have an effect on amounts. Right now
we have 3.5-4.5 inches storm total across the FFA watch area,
which would be less than our "Flood" event last week. We could
see isolated higher amounts especially west of Highway 67.
Generally 2-3.5" elsewhere, save for the KHOP area, around 1.5".
The rain (rates) should taper off a bit more Saturday night. All
through the event we will likely be absent of thunder. Temps are a
blend of MOS and base model output.

Changes made to the Flash Flood Watch. Friday is a rather busy
day, including travel. 6 hr FFG values are currently 2.75-3.5 over
SEMO in the watch area. We are forecasting 1-1.5" for 12 hours
high end for Friday daylight. We should be in the process of
saturation Friday, not flooding. Therefore we have delayed the
Watch start time to 00z Saturday and will run it through 06z
Sunday. As stated prior, this will likely be a slower response
Flood type of event, not Flash Flood. The typical filling of
streams, ditches and standing water that develops in low lying,
poor drainage areas. We do agree that rises on some SEMO rivers is
a bit of a concern. Anyway, we lack deep convection and
substantial short term high rain rates for noteworthy Flash
Flooding, pretty much exactly like the last event. But the
headline is already out. It`s simply not worth the potential
message confusion. In the end, the MND header is Flood Watch, and
the public likely doesn`t respond any differently regardless of
the perceived wording enhancement.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Models show showers remaining widespread across the PAH forecast
area Sunday, and kept precipitation chances in the likely to
categorical range. The focus of higher QPF will remain across our
southeast half of counties where the front will be laid out, but
overall amounts do not seem any cause for concern. The progression
of the front will continue to be very slow, remaining in our eastern
counties into Monday. This will continue to give our region good
chances of showers Sunday night into Monday. Models are in pretty
good agreement showing a surface low surging along the front Monday
into Monday night.  This will finally trigger some eastern movement
of the front. Precipitation chances will begin tapering off from the
west late Monday into Monday night, with showers only lingering in
our far east counties by Tuesday. Dry conditions will return for mid

Extensive cloud cover/rain will keep overnight lows very mild and
daytime highs near seasonal in the early part of the extended.
Daytime highs will even increase a few degrees for Monday as the
surface low moving north gives us some temporary southerly winds.  A
cool down will begin Tuesday night as winds become west to northwest
with high pressure building to our west.  Readings will drop to a
few degrees below seasonal normals for Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Issued at 502 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

VFR ocnl cigs 4-7k/ft through the day with VCSH this morning as
isolated light showers/sprinkles move NE. South winds up to 10 kts
with some slightly higher gusts through the TAF forecast. Chance
of showers starts to work in from west later tonight.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
     for ILZ080-084-088-092-093.

MO...Flash Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening
     for MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.



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