Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 150855

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 234 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

We will see a return to dry and seasonably cool conditions
today/tonight as an area of high pressure works slowly east from
the Plains. However, what looks to be the start of a major warming
trend will get underway on Thu as the high sinks southward toward
the Gulf Coast and surface winds become more southwesterly. After
max temps in the 40s to near 50 today, sunshine and southwest
breezes will help temperatures rebound well into the 50s to near
60 Thursday afternoon. Mid/upper level ridging will build east
into the region by late week, assuring a continuation of the dry
and unusually mild weather conditions. In fact, by Friday
afternoon, readings will be will be pushing 65 to 70 degrees at
many locations, some 15 to 20 degrees above the seasonal norms.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

The long-term period will be characterized by near-record warmth and
a couple small chances of precipitation. Pronounced 500 mb ridging
over the Ohio Valley will remain nearly stationary through Monday. A
trend toward more zonal flow will occur on Tuesday.

On Saturday, a 500 mb shortwave trough will advance northeast into
the mean ridge position over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The
models continue to indicate little or no reflection of this
shortwave in the lower levels of the atmosphere. Even so, most
recent gfs and ecmwf runs indicate some areas of light qpf near the
shortwave. A small chance of showers will remain in the forecast
south of Interstate 64, closest to the path of the 500 mb shortwave.
Anticipated clouds and possible precip will keep highs limited to
the 60s.

On Sunday, mid-level ridging will strengthen across the Lower Ohio
and Mississippi Valleys in the wake of the shortwave. A surface
ridge will build over the central and southern Appalachians,
resulting in a warm southerly flow across our region. Once again,
the mos temps from the gfs and ecmwf appear to handle the warmth
better than the 2 meter temps and ensemble blends. With considerable
sun, highs should top 70 in many areas. Records are generally in the
lower 70s Sunday.

On Monday, only a slight eastward shift in the ridge position is
expected. The sensible weather should be nearly identical to Sunday,
with highs in the lower 70s. A weakening 500 mb trough over the
western high Plains will start to affect our weather Monday night. A
chance of showers will remain in the forecast Monday night, mainly
west of the Wabash River and Kentucky Lake region.

On Tuesday, a small chance of showers will overspread the entire
region ahead of a weakening cold front. The 00z model suite
indicates the main belt of mid-level westerlies will be over the
northern states. This will limit forcing along and ahead of the
front. Although mos guidance indicates highs will reach 70 again in
most areas, the forecast will trend closer to 2-meter temps and
climatology due to increased cloud cover and precip chances.


Issued at 1129 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

IFR cigs possible at KCGI/KPAH for the first couple of hours,
otherwise VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the
period. Variable winds AOB 5 knots early will gradually swing
around to the north in the 08-10Z time frame, become gusty after
15Z, then back to AOB 10 knots after 00Z.




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