Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 112350
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

The AVIATION section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

First focus will be on freezing rain, ice potential. We will not
be issuing a Winter Storm Watch. What is more likely is an
eventual Freezing Rain Advisory. For now, most of the potential is
4th period. So we have some time to fine tune the forecast. We
will issue a outlook Special Weather Statement.

In terms of model preference. Coord with WPC and other offices
indicate the preference is a NAM/ECMWF blend, which has been
preferred for more than 2 days now. The GFS seems too warm and
the CMC too cold, for Thursday night through Friday night. We
could see some icing develop after midnight across our far NW
counties of SEMO, southern IL. QPF will be rather light. But as we
know, impacts certainly possible no matter how little. Friday, we
expect an uptick, starting by daybreak and continuing through the
morning in rain activity as the 32F line settles south to about a
line from Van Buren MO, to Marion IL to Princeton IN. Focus will
be along a corridor from Perryville to Du Quion to Fairfield and
points NW, where the greatest amounts could occur, say 0.10-0.15"
with some 0.20" possible just on the edge of our area
transitioning into the LSX CWFA. That`s getting close to warning
criteria. But for now we have to draw the line somewhere.

Saying exactly how much ice is always tricky. With this event, it
seems more likely accretions will be on elevated surfaces (trees,
vehicles, etc.). Sidewalks and untreated roads likely to be slick
as well. But for the main highways and streets, if well treated,
may not be as much of an issue. We`ll see. The FZRA chances will
continue into the afternoon, then end as temperatures start to
rise slowly by the end of the day and into the evening.

In the near term, just some light showers across the area. Will
continue with low PoPs through the evening with mostly cloudy
skies. Chances increase some after midnight, with elevated
instability present as well, for isolated thunder. Front pushes
through from NW to SE on Thursday, with a continued chance of
showers and isolated storms. Cannot rule out a strong storm during
the day. Temperatures will remain unseasonably mild tonight with
gusty south winds below Advisory criteria the rule.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

The main focus during the long-term period will be on a storm system
lifting northeast from the Plains early next week. This system will
be accompanied by the potential of heavy rain. Some thunder and
gusty gradient winds are also possible.

Prior to the system early next week, an extended period of generally
light rain is expected this weekend. A very shallow arctic high will
reside over the Great Lakes region much of the weekend. Shallow cold
air will be very persistent across the Lower Ohio Valley and
southeast MO. A deep layer of moist southwest flow aloft will
overrun light northeast surface winds most of the weekend. This will
result in a prolonged period of low stratus clouds, drizzle, and
intermittent rain. Some light icing may persist into early Saturday
morning along the I-64 corridor. There will be quite a wide range of
temps this weekend. Highs will range from the upper 30s along I-64
to the mid 50s along the Tennessee border.

Early next week, a vigorous storm system will lift northeast from
the Southwestern states across the Plains. Although the models still
vary with the surface low track, they almost all agree on a track
west of our region. A blocking upper-level high over the Southeast
is forecast to bring a halt to the eastward progress of the trailing
cold front. The models indicate a fairly good setup for heavy rain,
with a very deep southerly flow feeding moisture northward along a
quasi-stationary front across the Lower Ohio Valley. Strong low-
level flow up to 50 knots at 850 mb will likely result in marginal
instability for thunder. The main timeframe for heavy rain appears
to be Monday night into Tuesday, but there is still some variability
among the models. The ecmwf is slower to move the front east of our
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. 12z WPC qpf indicates a small
swath of 2 to 4 inches from west KY into northern Mississippi,
however the details are sure to change with an event 5 to 7 days
out.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Most guidance appears to be choking on the low-level moisture this
evening, indicating MVFR or lower ceilings throughout the area at
this time. All sites will begin VFR, but MVFR ceilings are
expected to develop throughout the area late this evening.
Scattered showers are expected from late evening until more solid
precipitation arrives near the cold front Thursday. Due to the
scattered coverage and fast motion of the showers, feel any impact
will be extremely limited tonight, so let VCSH handle it. Held
LLWS out of the forecast tonight with persistent gusts 20-30kts
forecast.

Winds will veer to west toward midday Thursday and eventually
will shift to the northwest with the cold frontal passage in the
mid to late afternoon. One or more bands of rain will accompany
the front through the area. MVFR rain a good bet, but IFR not out
of the question with the heaviest precipitation. Ceilings are
likely to drop to IFR levels near and behind the front regardless
of precipitation.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS



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