Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 200447
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to slight model
disagreement.

Tonight overrunning precipitation will spread northeastward across
all but the far northeast sections of our CWA as a system lifts out
of the southern plains. The highest probability of precipitation
appears to be on Friday as the surface low associated with the
aforementioned system slides by just to the south and east of our
region. Model runs continue to show the highest precipitation
probabilities over the southeast half of our CWA, especially the
southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky.

As the low moves off to the east Friday evening, precipitation
chances will diminish from the west accordingly, with the entire
being dry after midnight. Saturday evening an H5 short wave will
dive southward across the region but with high pressure at the
surface and lack of moisture no precipitation is expected.

Temperatures will remain below normal through the period, but will
moderate back toward normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

Medium confidence in the extended.

High pressure will be firmly in place over the area at the surface
and aloft. This will result in a continued dry along with a warming
trend. The high will slowly break down Monday into Tuesday in
response to a strengthening  upper low over the west coast. As this low
strengthens the flow aloft will become southwest. This will tap into
the moisture off the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile at the surface high
pressure will be shunted to the southeast Atlantic coast allowing
the low levels to advect moisture in from the Gulf. The ridge aloft
does not break down enough to allow the cold front to come through.
However several perturbation in the flow aloft will allow for
several rounds of rain as we progress through the work week. Monday
and Monday night an inversion is in place with no surface based
instability. In contrast there is instability aloft with K index
values exceeding 30c. So will keep chance of thunder in the
forecast. As we head into mid week we do develop surface instability
with LI`s going negative and PW`s exceeding 1.5". The ridge does not
break down enough for the cold front to come through until next
weekend when the upper trough finally rotates through the region
kicking the cold front east of the heartland. This will make for a
very unsettled weather pattern through the work week with
temperatures near or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu May 19 2016

As a system lifts northeast out of the southern plains tonight,
overrunning precipitation will develop and overspread the TFA
sites. Except for possible MVFR cigs/vsbys in SHRA between
09Z-18Z, VFR cigs should prevail at all sites thereafter.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
LONG TERM...KH



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