Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 202236
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
536 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Updated for 00z aviation only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

H5 ridging will begin bulging farther east into the region during
the next 24 hours or so. This will result in plenty of daytime sun
and little if any threat of rain. It will also result in a warming
trend that will last through the end of the short term (Tuesday)
Temperatures and dewpoints will rise to more normal levels Monday
afternoon, which means afternoon temps near 90 with heat index
values in the mid 90s. By Tuesday afternoon, should be lower to
mid 90s with heat indices close to 100 or so.

Patchy fog will be possible once again late tonight through
sunrise Monday. Though it should not be widespread, it could be
locally dense, especially toward dawn.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

The ECE/GFS/NAEFS ensemble means were in good agreement in the
extended period. The mid/upper ridge in the swrn CONUS, with trofs
in the nwrn CONUS and ern CONUS, will be suppressed mid-period by
the nwrn trof as it moves along the Canadian border. By the end of
next weekend, a long wave mid/upper trof may dominate the ern CONUS,
providing yet another cool down for the PAH forecast area.

On the ern periphery of the dominant high, the PAH forecast area
will see scattered development of showers and tstms mainly Wed
afternoon with the highest PoPs in the nrn half of the region. Wed
night, the convection will transition to the sern half as a shrtwv
trof rounds the ridge and merges with a "weakness" in the heights
over the Deep South. A cold front/sfc trof will also be driven sewd
by the shrtwv energy. However, the deterministic 12Z GFS and ECMWF
runs differ somewhat as to the nwrn extent of the mid level
"weakness", and therefore PoPs may linger over the sern half of the
region during the day Thu.

The influence of the dominant high should return for Thu night/Fri,
then the long wave pattern is expected to amplify, sweeping another
cold front into our region by Sun. Subtle shrtwv energy may help to
enhance deep moist convection in the nwrn counties Fri night, then
the entire region Sat, followed by the front Sun, which should
provide another interval of pcpn.

Temps will be noticeably cooler late Thu, along with lower
dewpoints. A warming trend can be expected until the very end of the
period (Sun, Day 7).

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 530 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Major update to existing tafs. Fog is the main concern with
surface high centered over the area...calm winds...and cross over
temps are expected to be prominent across the taf sites. The
reason KEVV and KOWB did not bottom out last night is they had
wind. That is not expected to be the case tonight.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KH
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...KH





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