Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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851
FXUS63 KPAH 311728
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1128 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

For aviation section only.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 240 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

Average confidence in the short term due to model differences.

Strong southerly flow ahead of a system moving out of the plains
will continue to advect increasing amounts of low level moisture
across the area today. This combined with isentropic upglide on the
I290 surface should produce a deck of low clouds. Per latest 11-3.9u
satellite imagery, the low clouds are already beginning to develop
to the south and west of our area. A couple of models are cranking
out a hundredth or two of QPF this morning, and a couple are not. If
any precipitation should develop it would more than likely be
drizzle due to the shallow nature of the moisture (1000-850MB). Will
leave precipitation out of the forecast this morning for now.

As the aforementioned system and associated cold front approach and
cross the region today and tonight, the combination of deeper
moisture and better low to mid level forcing really come together
over our CWA, especially over the southeast half. Models indicate
instability over the southeast sections tonight, so included chc
thunder there. In the wake of this system precipitation will begin
to diminish from northwest to southeast late tonight into Monday
morning.

Monday afternoon and evening the region should be dry with high
pressure in control, however this period of dryness will be short
lived. An H5 trough over the four corners region is expected to
induce a surface low on the aforementioned front and lift it across
the central plains and into the Great Lakes region by the end of the
period. This scenario will produce overrunning precipitation across
our CWA starting late Monday night.

Precipitation chances will ramp up considerably on Tuesday as the
cold front associated with the system in the previous paragraph
crosses the region. The presence of a capping inversion should
result in a relative lack of thunderstorm development Tuesday
morning, but during the afternoon a squall line with embedded
circulations is expected to develop along and ahead of the front.
Decent low/mid level forcing, strong wind fields/shear, and
impressive temperatures/dewpoints/instability for this time of year
will come together setting the stage for a few storms to become
severe, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes the primary threats.

In the wake of this system, precipitation chances and any threats of
severe weather will rapidly diminish from west to east Tuesday
evening.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 240 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

The extended forecast period is basically a dry forecast period,
with only small chances for snow showers late Saturday night and
early next sunday morning.

The general flow is west-northwesterly through the period with low
to medium amplitude shortwave passages separated by 12-18 hours.
Most of the medium range guidance did fairly well on the timing of
these systems, but initialized very poorly with some of the sensible
weather elements, such as dew points and winds. For collaboration
purposes, some serious blending was required to reflect the sharper
gradients in moisture availability, as well as temperature and wind
changes.

Otherwise, overall temperatures will be at or below normal for the
the latter part of the week, given the general flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1125 AM CST SUN JAN 31 2016

High MVFR to low VFR cigs will prevail ahead of an advancing cold
front this afternoon and evening. In the wake of the front cigs
should become VFR starting at KCGI around 04Z. Southerly winds at
14-15 knots gusting up to 25 knots will drop off to AOB 12 knots
by late afternoon, then become northerly overnight AOB 10 knots in
the wake of the front.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GM
LONG TERM...Smith



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