Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 191134 AAA

634 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

The presence of a lingering H5 trough over the southern Pennyrile
region of western Kentucky combined with deeper moisture there will
produce plenty of cloud cover and small chances of showers and
thunderstorms through tonight.

Starting Sunday an H5 ridge will begin to build eastward across the
area from the central plains. This will effectively snuff out all
vertical motion and therefore no chances for precipitation through
the end of the period.

Temperatures and dewpoints will start off the period below normal
but with the ridge building in, these values will moderate back to
near normal by the end of the period.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

To start the period, the forecast area will be situated along the
eastern periphery of a strong upper level high centered over the
Central and Southern Rockies. This high should provide enough mid
level capping to keep conditions dry Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Heat and humidity will make a return as well. Highs in the lower 90s
and dew points in the upper 60s will yield peak heat index readings
in the mid to upper 90s both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

By Wednesday and Thursday, an amplifying upper flow pattern will
allow shortwave energy to dive southeast into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. This will result in the passage of yet another cold
front. We will continue to carry a small chance of showers and
thunderstorms with the passage of the front, though at this point
rain chances do not appear all that great. The best chance will
arrive Wednesday night, with chances increasing from the northwest
Wednesday afternoon and decreasing to the southeast on Thursday.

In the wake of the front, below normal temperatures are expected
Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds south from Canada. Right
now, this air mass does not appear as cool as the last few to impact
the region. However, highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the
mid to upper 60s will still be welcome relief from normal.


Issued at 634 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A surface low over south central Tennessee lifting northward will
pull a deck of MVFR/VFR clouds over the KPAH/KEVV/KOWB sites early
in the period. LIFR cig and vsby at KEVV should become VFR by 15Z.
May see LIFR/IFR cigs/vsbys toward the end of the period at all
sites. Calm to light and variable winds early will pick up out of
the northeast AOB 10 knots after 15Z, then go back to calm by 06Z.




LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RJP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.