Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 010324

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
924 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Issued at 924 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Stratus deck translating through the northern half of the WFO PAH
forecast area, playing a little havoc in timing and placement of
sensible weather elements, such as temperature, wind, and
dewpoint. Channeled vorticity along the southern edge of a slowly
retreating cyclonic flow associated with a Great Lakes low is
aiding in lift of moisture in the 1-1.5km AGL layer. Drier air is
advecting (lower dewpoints in Missouri) and may trend
mixing/erosion of southern limit of stratus through 1 am CST with
rapid clearing after that time. Adjusted grids/forecast again to
reflect th onset and departure of the stratus overnight.

UPDATE Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Low pressure lifting northeast out of the Great Lakes tonight and
Thursday will bring cooler westerly flow to the region. Despite
abundant sunshine, day time temps will struggle to make it close
to seasonal norms. A rather chilly dome of high pressure will be
settling in over the region Friday into Saturday, with dry
conditions and temps continuing close to normal for this time of
year. The high will scoot off to the east Saturday night/Sunday as
a weak short wave and associated trof of low pressure at the
surface push east toward the mid MS River/lower OH Valley regions.

As early as Saturday, pcpn is possible across the southern half of
our region, as isentropic lift ahead of an eastward-moving southern
stream low pressure system taps into deepening columnar moisture
over the region. By Saturday night, the pcpn signal will increase
some. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty as to how
much if any precip makes it to the ground. GFS is now the
wettest, esp along/north of the Shawnee Hills, in generating QPF
in the .10 to .20 inch range between midnight Saturday night and
sunrise Sunday. Other models keep things mostly dry.

Ice nucleation does appear likely Saturday night, with complete
saturation in the -12 to -20 layer. Also, low level temps should
be cold enough for some very light snowfall, possibly mixed with
light mixed with light rain in southwestern IN, most of southern
IL, and the northern Pennyrile region of KY. Ground temps are
still warm tho, so about all those areas might see after midnight
will be flakes in the air, and no impacts are expected at this
time. Pcpn should be all rain by mid morning Sunday, and moving
away to the east quickly.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Low confidence in next weeks storm models have varying

Right now the 00z Wed ECMWF seems to be the odd one out...while the
12z Wed ECMWF is much more in line with the GFS and Canadian and
better agreement with the forecast builder solution. Still a lot of
room for variation in the possible scenarios. So will try to focus
on the common or similarities among the solutions. There will be
rain showers Monday into Tuesday as southern flow aloft captures a
surface low and lifts it northeast into the region. There will be no
surface based instability with positive LI`s and surface based CAPE
at zero. Aloft we do have some brief instability with K index
reading around 30c. MU CAPES well below a hundred to single digits
most of the time. Showalters stay positive through the period.
However they do start to approach zero near the KY and TN state
line. So a clap of thunder will be possible but should be limited to
southern portion of west KY. For now the chance is to slight to
introduce. Otherwise Temperatures will start out near normal Monday
and slowly warm to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.


Issued at 504 PM CST Wed Nov 30 2016

Satellite tracks low VFR Cigs just north of terminals, but
with close call/potential impact for KEVV/KOWB will carry a
temporary CIG there this evening. Otherwise High pressure takes
control with VFR and Westerlies generally around 10 kts (diurnal)
or less (night) through the package.




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