Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 260600
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
100 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

AFTER COORDINATION WITH WFO LOUISVILLE KY AND WFO ST. LOUIS...WILL
BE POSTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 11 PM
FRIDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY NUISANCE WATER ISSUES WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS THIS EVENING...THE TRAILING RAIN WITH THE
MATURING MCS EXITING THE AREA WILL SERVE TO LAY THE GROUNDWORK FOR
MOISTENING THE GROUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF INTENSE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING OVER WATCH
AREA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN ANTECEDENT RAINFALL FROM LAST FRIDAY`S
EVENT WITH REMNANTS OF BILL...AM CONCERNED WITH WATER ISSUES OVER
SOUTHWEST INDIANA PARTICULARLY.

SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE INTENSE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.

THE 12KM NAM-WRF AND 40KM GFS EVENING RUNS SEEM TO BE HONING IN ON
AN AREA ALONG AND SLIGHTLY THE LENGTH OF INTERSTATE 64 IN SOUTHERN
IL AND SOUTHWEST IN AS A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN EXPANDING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATION
TOMORROW MORNING...EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH TO ROUTE 13 IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SHOULD SEE A RAPID LESSENING OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA AFTER 07Z-
08Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER WAVE WILL MOVE IN BETWEEN 13Z-15Z
FRIDAY.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
KEY TO BOTH THE FLOODING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL FRIDAY (TODAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

WITH THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY...AND DECENT UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND
SHEAR A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

ON FRIDAY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST AS A SHARP SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A LOW ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT WILL PULL/PUSH THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE SAME
SEVERE PARAMETERS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS PARAGRAPH MAY PRODUCE
SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. BEYOND THAT HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THE RECENT HEAT
SPELL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE NEXT
WEEK.

AFTER A DRY SUNDAY A WEAK SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE
HEARTLAND BRINGING RAIN CHANCES BACK AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WELL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF IMPULSES TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. FINALLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL OUT. RIGHT NOW
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE FRONT PUSHING JUST TO OUR SOUTH
RATHER THAN HANGING UP OVER THE AREA. THUS THE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
RATIONAL FOR THE EXTENDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN RECENTLY THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT
SLOWLY WARM AS WE HEAD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION DEPENDING ON
IF THE FRONT STALLS OVER US VS SOUTH OF US COULD GET ANOTHER COOL
DOWN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2015

NOT SURE HOW MUCH TS IS LEFT IN THE WEAKENING ARC OF CONVECTION
IMPACTING ALL TAFS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. TRIED TO USE A
VCTS TO HANDLE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD PASS OR DISSIPATE BY 08Z AT ALL SITES.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
ALL SITES BY MIDDAY...BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS NOT GREAT...SO THE TEMPO
FOR TS IS PROBABLY TOO LONG. THESE STORMS COULD HAVE SOME
SIGNIFICANT GUSTS.

AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE EVENING...THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>087.

MO...NONE.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ014-018>020.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS


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