Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 131104
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
505 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated aviation section for 12z taf issuance

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

A solid deck of low clouds over our region is the main forecast
issue for today and tonight. Although the majority of model
guidance clears us out today, there is no sign of a clearing trend
yet. Satellite imagery shows the clouds extend upstream all the
way to the Great Lakes region and Appalachians. There had been
some clearing over the Ozark foothills earlier, but the clouds
have begun a southwest drift back toward kpof.

As high pressure moves east across Illinois today, our low level
flow will turn more easterly. It would take a southeast or south
flow to bring drier air into our region. The 00z nam model
sounding for kpah indicates the stratus will become trapped under
a subsidence inversion. If the nam is correct, a low overcast will
persist through Tuesday morning. Given that the past 24 hours of
model runs have been too quick to clear things out, the nam looks
pretty good right now. High temps will be lowered for today based
on a slower clearing trend. Temps today should rise no more than
several degrees from their lows. Lows tonight will depend on
clearing. Lows will range from the mid 30s where it clears to the
lower 40s where clouds hang in.

On Tuesday, areas of low clouds in the morning should finally be
pushed out by southeast low level winds. Highs are forecast to be
mostly in the mid 50s.

A southeastward moving cold front will move into western Missouri
Tuesday night. Warm advection clouds and showers may develop as
far southeast as the lower Ohio Valley by morning. The showers
will become widespread on Wednesday as the front reaches southern
Illinois and se Missouri. There may be a few rumbles of thunder in
se Missouri and southern Illinois, where showalter indices are
forecast to be zero or a little lower. Showers will end from
northwest to southeast Wednesday night as the cold front passes
through.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

At 12Z Thursday, surface high pressure will be centered over the
upper/mid Mississippi river valley, with whatever is left of the
aformentioned frontal boundary well to our south. Models have slowed
down the return of moisture so Thursday is now expected to be dry.
The surface high will shift east during the day on Thursday
allowing for our winds to eventually shift around to the southeast.

By Thursday night, southwesterly low level flow will increase and we
will see moisture and chances for precipitation overspreading the
area from southwest to northeast through the night. Best chances for
rain and isolated thunder will be across SEMO, southern IL and far
west KY. But there are still some timing differences with the
models.

There are still pretty big discrepancies between models on how they
handle the Friday/Friday night system. It is all tied to the upper
level trough that will be coming ashore on Thursday and how it
evolves during the day and into Thursday night. The faster GFS
continues to look like somewhat of an outlier, with the sfc low
developing over northeastern KS Friday morning and then rocketing
northeast into northwest IL by 18Z Friday. The slower ECMWF and
Canadian develop the sfc low over the northern or central Plains by
Friday afternoon. Not sure how much precipitation will see in the
warm sector on Friday, but chance type POPs will work for at least
the morning hours especially since the ECMWF and Canadian still have
deep moisture/QPF lifting northeast. Backed off on the blend`s
categorical POPs and lowered to low end likely Friday afternoon to
collaborate better with surrounding offices, but if the slower
solutions end up panning out, part of the area may remain fairly dry
on Friday afternoon as we remain in the warm sector. Surface winds
will become pretty gusty on Friday as well with the tight gradient
in place. Friday will be the warmest day of the week with temps
soaring into the 60s.

Despite the timing differences on the advancing cold front, it
appears the Friday night time frame should see the highest rain
chances as the cold front traverses the region from west to east.
There will likely be adjustments made to POPs Friday evening vs the
overnight hours as the speed of the front is better nailed down.
Could see some lingering rain on Saturday morning in the far east
but the majority of the precipitation should be east of us by then,
given the all over speed of the various ensemble mean solutions.
Sunday should be dry with high pressure dominating.

Continue to monitor strong convective chances but not a slam dunk
forecast right now. Plenty of shear and sfc dewpoint are continually
progged to rise into the upper 50s but decent instability may be
lacking as well as upper level dynamics. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 505 AM CST Mon Nov 13 2017

Widespread mvfr cigs will continue this morning. As high pressure
moves east across Illinois this afternoon, areas of clearing are
likely to develop. Although vfr conditions are forecast by early
this evening, there is a good chance that mvfr cigs will continue to
pester some areas tonight. The timing of clearing could be delayed
again in future tafs. Winds will be northeast 5 to 10 kt, decreasing
to near calm late tonight. No vsby restrictions are anticipated.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...CW
AVIATION...MY


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