Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260821
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
321 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAIN NEAR TERM CONCERNS INCLUDE: (1.) THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS; AND (2.) THE BUILDING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH MID WEEK. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OVER
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND ITS IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES...CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY AVERAGE TODAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES THROUGH MID WEEK. IMPULSES OF ENERGY STREAMING SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES AS OBSERVED IN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT.

MOST HI-RES CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME PART OF
THE ONGOING MCS ACTIVITY OVER MISSOURI SHOULD MAKE IT INTO AT
LEAST THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...I SUSPECT THESE MODELS MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN THEIR
SOUTHEASTWARD DEPICTION OF SAID CONVECTION. THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO SOME WEAKENING AS IT MOVES FURTHER FROM
ITS ORIGINATION SOURCE. THAT SAID...ANY REMNANT MCV OR BOUNDARIES
MAY ACT TO SERVE AS A TRIGGER FOR NEW CONVECTION BY AFTERNOON IN
THE HOT...HUMID...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE ACTIVITY
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT IN CONJUNCTION WITH SPC`S DAY
1 OUTLOOK...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE CELLS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
INTO THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
FURTHER EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DROP OFF BY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS MAY
IMPACT TEMPERATURES ACROSS AT LEAST A PART OF THE REGION TODAY. AS
A RESULT...WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
WILL INSTEAD HANDLE ANY NEAR ADVISORY HEAT INDICES WITH A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT. IF CONDITIONS CHANGE...THE DAY SHIFT CAN POP AN
ADVISORY WHERE NEEDED.

BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
WILL BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN TO
DWINDLE. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL TAKE HOLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
90S AND HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AT LEAST 100 TO 105 ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM AS MODELS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT...TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT EXCESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO THE REGION IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF A BONA FIDE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS A RESULT...THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES AREA-WIDE SHOULD BE
DURING THAT SAME PERIOD. SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER INTO
THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST
KENTUCKY...OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVERSPREADING THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES ON WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE VERY
UNPLEASANT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE BUT
BEYOND THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE SHOULD MAKE FOR A MORE PLEASANT LATTER HALF OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION FROM 12Z TO 18Z.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A DECENT CHANCE THAT ANY SUCH COMPLEX
WOULD DIE OUT BEFORE REACHING THE TAF SITES...SO WILL LEAVE TS OUT
AT THIS TIME.

ALREADY GETTING SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG AS OF 04Z. WITH MID
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA...AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CEILINGS IN THE VICINITY OF 3KFT AT KEVV AND KOWB...KEPT
VISIBILITIES AT MVFR LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. DID INSERT MVFR
CEILINGS AT KEVV AND KOWB IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DRS


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