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000
FXUS63 KPAH 150846
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
346 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

TODAY LOOKS LIKE ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME
INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/WEAK CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ANOTHER DAY OF
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH AT LEAST 900 MB...WHICH WILL
MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ONCE AGAIN. LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES ARE
NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY...SO A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL AGAIN
BE ISSUED.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS...WHICH YIELDS MID
80S AGAIN. BIAS CORRECTED MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER 80S IN THE
KEVV/KMVN CORRIDOR...SO TEMPS THERE MAY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TUESDAY. ELSEWHERE...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW TUESDAYS HIGHS.

THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
MID MISSISSIPI VALLEY TONIGHT. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SAG
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA LATE TONIGHT.
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE POPS TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES.

ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG OR NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AS THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE WEAKENS FURTHER OVER OUR
REGION. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY DUE TO LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAKENING UPPER DYNAMICS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED BY CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE
WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE AND SOUTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK/LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
WILL MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THIS FEATURE TO
INTERACT WITH. THEREFORE...POPS WILL INCREASE INTO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE /LOWER 80S/.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED 345 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST OVER SOME OR ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A SOUTH
WIND WILL PREVAIL...KEEPING THE AREA WARM AND RELATIVELY HUMID
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE 00Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER TO BUILD THE SHORT WAVE
RIDGE OVER THE REGION. THEY KEEP THE UPPER FLOW MUDDLED WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE AND A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHICH WILL DRY OUT SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. HOWEVER...AT
LEAST SMALL CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER RIDGING MAY FINALLY DRY OUT THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AS THE 00Z MODELS AGREE THAT AN OCCLUDED
STORM SYTEM WILL CLOSE OFF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER
MIDWEST. WILL KEEP MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE AREA BOTH PERIODS
JUST IN CASE THE MODELS TREND FASTER AGAIN.

THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT MAY BEGIN TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE
ECMWF IS WETTER AND SLOWER WITH ITS MAIN BAND OF QPF...WHILE THE GFS
IS RELATIVELY DRY AND DEVELOPS MORE SCATTERED QPF.

WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED STORM PULSE UP TO NEAR
SEVERE LEVELS IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. WITH THE GFS
ADVERTISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR AN INCH AND A
HALF...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SOME HEADING TOWARD THE LAST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT BOTH MODELS ARE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE WEST
COAST AND THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A FULL LATITUDE RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY COOL AND POTENTIALLY WET
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT VSBY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE MAIN FACTOR WILL AGAIN BE INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS...WHICH SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL TEND TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT CIGS WILL BE VFR.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR KYZ001>022.

MO...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114.

IL...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

IN...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM....DRS
AVIATION...MY