Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 120704
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
204 AM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 157 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

Short term forecast is still on track for Sunday night storm
system to move in. Will see pops shoot up to categorical/near
certainty after a warming/drying weekend.

Storms may contain heavy rainfall Sunday night. Forecast areal
average qpf for the event is 3/4" on average, with slightly higher
amounts south and slightly lower amounts north.

Pops linger thru Monday as the upper trof makes passage after the
surface system departs. Instability showers will remain the rule
as we transition thru the wetter environ to a cooler one as well.
70s and 50s will be supplanted by 50s and 30s, a notable drop
below climo.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

In the wake of the early week system, high pressure will build in by
Tuesday. This will result in a return to dry and unseasonably cool
weather during the mid week period. In fact, highs Tuesday are only
forecast in the lower to mid 50s. Frost will be possible Tuesday
night as clear skies and light winds allow temperatures to dip into
the lower and mid 30s by daybreak Wednesday.

The surface ridge will begin to shift east of the area on Wednesday.
Winds will back to the east and eventually southeast as a result.
This will yield a moderating trend as we head into late week. Highs
Wednesday will close in on the 60 degree mark, then surge well into
the 60s on Thursday.

The approach of upper level shortwave energy may result in our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday night and Friday,
however confidence is relatively low at this point. The latest GFS
and GEM are much more amplified with the upper level system, while
the ECMWF is faster and weaker. Prefer to maintain the going slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 157 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

VFR will be the rule thru the period, as we warm sector. As such,
the gradient tightens in response to the developing storm system,
and we may see winds gust back into the 20s mph if this plays out
as expected. Pcpn should hold off til after the effective valid
time, though cigs may lower thru VFR and flirt with MVFR by the
end of the period.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$





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