Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180454
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

As a subtle mid level trof axis finally moves away tonight, and is
replaced by quasi-zonal flow, light showers should end at least
temporarily across the entire PAH forecast area, with the
possibility of re-development in the southern Pennyrile region
late in the night. Patchy dense fog is possible tonight,
especially north of the OH River where there will be fewer clouds.

Much of the deeper moisture is forecast to remain south of the
region until late Friday, limiting measurable PoPs to generally
western KY and southern parts of southeastern MO until then.
Toward Friday night, large scale lift and low level moisture
transport is expected to begin ahead of an approaching significant
northern stream mid level trof and surface cold front. This will
result in increasing instability and coverage of showers and
tstms, especially in the western half of the region.

Though the sun may be seen from time to time, ample cloudiness
during the daytime will help to limit peak temps to somewhat
below average during the short term. South/southwesterly winds
will help to keep lows around 70.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

Above average confidence in the long term due to decent model
agreement.

Relief from the heat, humidity, and seemingly nonstop rainfall is on
the way, but not before a few more periods of rain chances at the
beginning of the long term.

Synoptically the scenario that has kept our CWA in a very wet
pattern for more than a week will begin to change as the upper ridge
over the southeast US begins to break down. As a result, the
approach of a bona fide cold front will produce the highest pops in
the period on Saturday. With the passage of the front Saturday night
into Sunday, precipitation chances will decrease from northwest to
southeast accordingly. There is a small chance showers could linger
over the far southern Pennyrile region of western Kentucky Sunday
evening.

From Monday through the end of the period, as cooler/drier high
pressure overspreads the region in the wake of the front, expect
below normal temperatures, plenty of sunshine, and lower humidity
through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Wed Aug 17 2016

VFR cigs and vsbys are expected to drop to MVFR through 09z,
especially vsbys, and persist through 18z. IFR vsbys and cigs are
possible at times between 09z and 13z. Conditions should
gradually improve to VFR between 18z and 00z. Winds will be light
south to calm through 13z, then increase from the south to
southwest to around 5 kts.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...RST



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