Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 220827
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
327 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

REGIONAL MOSAIC RADAR SHOWS SOME LIGHT ECHOES SPREADING NORTH
THROUGH NORTHERN ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE RAIN REMAINS SOUTH OF I-40. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL SOUTH OF
OUR AREA...BUT SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...BRINGS IT RIGHT UP NEAR OUR
SOUTHERN BORDER. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TODAY INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT WONT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES
THIS SIDE OF THE BORDER. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR RADAR
TRENDS AND ADD IN SPRINKLES OR A POP WHEN IT BECOMES MORE
OBVIOUS.

THE COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS SOUTHEAST INTO WEST KENTUCKY...AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW
MUCH FARTHER IT WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST. IT WILL RESULT IN A
DECENT GRADIENT OF TEMPERATURES FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST MAY NOT REACH 60...BUT IN
THE SOUTHWEST UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY.

THERE SHOULD BE RAPID CLEARING THIS EVENING...AS THE DISTURBANCE
THAT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAINS TO THE SOUTH PUSHES EAST OF THE
AREA. THE CLEARING SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY MONDAY. THE 00Z GUIDANCE IS NOT SURE WHAT TO DO WITH
DEWPOINTS...BUT THEY SHOULD DROP INTO/THROUGH THE 30S WITH A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FETCH. WINDS SHOULD STAY UP AROUND 5KTS
TONIGHT...SO HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT RADIATE TOO EFFICIENTLY IN THE
DRY AIR. HOWEVER...MOST PLACES EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI SHOULD
DROP INTO THE 30S TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM...GFS AND GEM HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI MONDAY...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
WITH THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF THEY ARE RIGHT
WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THAT TIME FRAME. THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 03Z SREF CONTINUE TO BE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE WARM FRONT AND
WETTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WILL KEEP POPS AT OR BELOW 30 PERCENT LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE
TUESDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...BEFORE THE
WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH. HAVE MORE POP THAN I WOULD LIKE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE IMPACTS OF THE WARM FRONT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE AREA IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. IF ANY
CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...STILL FIGURE THAT
SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH THE WARM FRONT TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY...WE COULD SEE A RANGE OF HIGHS...GREATER THAN
TODAYS...FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA. FIGURE
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH
SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND THE WARM FRONT IN THE REGION. SOME
SUNSHINE AND INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO A NICE WARM UP
INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IN THE
NORTHEAST LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ARE MORE REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD HAS BEEN ELONGATED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
TRANSITION FROM THE WARM SECTOR (AND WARM FRONTAL TRANSITION PERIOD)
CONVECTION AND THE UPCOMING COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
RAIN CHANCES BECOME A LITTLE MORE MURKY...AS THE POSITIVE TILT UPPER
TROUGH DEALS WITH SOME PHASING ISSUES THAT IMPACT THE DEGREE OF POST-
FRONTAL LIFT. FOR THAT TIME PERIOD, REDUCED OVERALL CHANCES FOR
RAIN, UNTIL THE MUCH SHARPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT, TERMINATING ANY MEASURABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

ALTHOUGH I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A SLIGHT EASTWARD
EXTENSION OF THE CURRENT SPC MARGINAL AREA IN DAY 3 OUTLOOK INTO THE
I-64 CORRIDOR IN S. IL, THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  THE
GFS/NAM HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE EVENT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR THE WFO PAH
FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE HIGHER POPS MAY BE 3-6 HOURS TOO
SLOW, BASED ON THE EXPECTED COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE
BETTER QPF TOTALS APPEAR ON TARGET FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. SEVERE OR NEAR SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS
TO BE ON TARGET WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL LATER IN THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADDRESS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK, SINCE TIMING/INTENSITY VARIATIONS OF
THE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT AND
MAY BE COMPLICATED BY SMALLER MESOSCALE ISSUES.

AS MENTIONED EARLIER IN THIS DISCUSSION, LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM
SOLUTIONS FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS AND THE GFS ON THE
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2015

ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS. LOW CONFIDENCE
CALL ON MVFR VSBYS AT KPAH AND KCGI BEFORE DAYBREAK. ENE WINDS AOB
10 KTS SUNDAY WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. MAYBE FEW-SCT LOWER
CLOUDS THAT SHOULD NOT BE AN IMPACT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH



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