Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 291854
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
154 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

THE HRRR PICKS UP ON CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IF OVERDONE A TAD. IT
BASICALLY MIGRATES SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS INTO OUR SEMO
OZARK COUNTIES TONIGHT. IT DOS NOT MODEL ACCURATELY THE WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN OUR EAST...BUT DOES SUGGEST SIMILAR TREND
THERE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OVER TIME...SYNOPTIC MODELING IS THE SAME...DRAWING FRONT IN AND
THIS WEEKEND WITH PASSAGE AND HIGH POP EVENT. LACKING STRONG
FORCING...IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH
PERHAPS PULSE MAINLY HEAT OF DAY STORMS BEARING WATCH ON THEIR
INTENSITY. POPS PEAK ALONG/AHEAD OF PASSING BOUNDARY SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.

ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT...POPS MAY LINGER BUT DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK DOWN THE
COLUMN. WE`LL SEE SOME DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE 50S THEN
AND EFFECTIVELY THIS WILL WORK TOWARD ENDING POPS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.

SUMMER LIKE WARMTH/HUMIDITY 80S/60S CONTINUES UNTIL FROPA...AFTER
WHICH THE MOVE BACK INTO THE 70S/50S COMMENCES SUNDAY-SUNDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WHICH SHOULD BECOME MORE FREQUENT AS WE HEAD INTO THE SUMMER
MONTHS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BROAD
RIDGING WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.

AS FAR AS THE SPECIFICS...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NOW LOOK MAINLY DRY
AND A LITTLE COOLER. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER AND A BIT COOLER.
POPS WILL BE REMOVED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE COOLER
AND DRIER AIR...INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR THUNDER. LINGERING
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUN
ON TUESDAY...HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES. AS FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING DRIER
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW MOST PLACES TO FALL INTO
THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE EAST
INTO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGHS RETREATS TO THE EAST COAST. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP. WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
COME A SMALL CHANCE OF DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND
STORMS...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL INCH BACK INTO
THE LOWER AND MID 80S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

DIURNAL CIG BASES FROM MVFR TO LOW VFR WILL BE COMMONPLACE...WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CHANCES POSSIBLE. AFTER NIGHTFALL...MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM WORKS MID BASED CIGS INTO/ACROSS
AREA. PATCHY FOG MAY OFFER MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS LATE...OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE NEARING FRONT TO AGAIN INTRODUCE MVFR CIGS TMRW MORNING
WITH CHANCE POPS/VICINITY THUNDER MENTIONED EARLY AND BECOMING
PREVALANT AS THE DAY WEARS ON.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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