Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 271944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
244 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Models still indicate showers and thunderstorms will be developing
by late this afternoon and will continue into this evening as an
area of low pressure surges out ahead of the approaching cold
front. Not sure of how widespread the convective activity will be,
but for now will go with high chance west to likely pops east late
today into this evening, and make some adjustments as things
develop. Showers and storms should be ending along and west of
the Mississippi River by around midnight, and across the rest of
the PAH forecast area by daybreak as the cold front pushes east of
our region Thursday morning. ECMWF is a little slower with the
cold front, but all the models in general have been a little off
in the timing with this system, so will just go dry after 12z
Thursday for now and make adjustments as needed.

We should see a brief break in our unsettled weather pattern
Thursday into Thursday night as a weak upper level ridge slides
across the area. By 12z Friday, models show a surface low over
the Southern Plains and a warm front lifting northward toward our
region. ECMWF and GFS are in good agreement spreading some
showers and storms into southwest portions of the PAH forecast
area by Friday afternoon, with showers and storms spreading
northeast across our entire region Friday night. Went with chance
pops for our southwest on Friday, the likely southwest to good
chance northeast for Friday night.

It will remain warm into tonight, and the air behind the cold
front is not much cooler than our current air mass, so
temperatures will only drop back a few degrees for Thursday into
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

At the beginning of the period, a complex pattern over the west US
will be characterized by a couple of lows over the Intermountain
West and Plains. A warm front will be in the vicinity. Will maintain
high PoPs for convection Saturday through Saturday night as energy
ejects ENE across the region from the trof to our west. PoPs for
convection will linger into Sunday. For the Monday through Wednesday
time frame, confidence lowers considerably with respect to the
evolution of the mid tropospheric flow pattern. Will leave a slight
chance of showers in for Tuesday/Wednesday as multiple solutions
suggest the chance. Other periods will be dry for now. However,
there will likely be adjustments to minimal PoP chances. Used a
blend of operational and ensemble MOS with our existing numbers for


Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Shra and Tsra are expected to develop through 00z across the TAF
sites, then taper off from west to east from 02z to 06z. Shra and
tsra are still possible after 06z due to a passing cold front,
but chances are too low to include for now. MVFR conditions are
likely with storms, VFR conditions are expected away from showers
and storms. Winds will be from the southeast to south at 8 to 12
kts with some higher gusts possible into this evening, becoming
southwest around 5 kts during the overnight. Gusty winds and hail
will be possible with stronger storms.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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