Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 180824
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
324 AM CDT SUN SEP 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Models show a weak upper level trof moving across the PAH forecast
area this afternoon. GFS keeps us dry, while ECMWF and HRRR generate
some light QPF mainly west of the Mississippi River this afternoon.
Included some slight chance pops for showers for a portion of our
southeast Missouri counties from 17z to 23z to account for it.
Despite northerly winds and some cloud cover, temperatures will be
a bit above seasonal normals today and tonight. Highs will be in
the lower to middle 80s with lows in the 60 to 65 degree range.

For tonight into Monday, surface high pressure will be sliding
east across our region. Winds will shift back to the south, and
temperatures will warm a few more degrees for Monday into Tuesday
night. Models show a weak cold front moving into the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio River valleys Tuesday and washing out
Tuesday night. Models keep us dry, and the only result will be
light winds shifting to the north Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun Sep 18 2016

Above average confidence through most of the period, then average
to below average at the very end due to slight model inconsistencies.

Still very little to discuss and very few changes synoptically
through most of the long term period. High pressure at the surface
and ridging aloft is forecast through most of the long term period
producing dry, warm, and humid conditions.

Friday night the GFS continues to weaken and suppress the upper
ridge slightly southward allowing a back door cold front to sag into
the far northern and northeastern sections of our CWA on Saturday.
In the process it also cranks out a few hundredths of QPF over the
same areas.

During the same time frame the ECMWF weakens the ridge but shows
deeper moisture and small precipitation chances over the southern
and western sections of our CWA on Saturday. The latest Superblend
model run appears to be picking up on that so will just go with
that which indicated slight chances area wide.

Temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1157 PM CDT Sat Sep 17 2016

Fog has begun to form across much of the region late this evening,
mainly in the kevv/kowb areas. Given the already dense nature of the
fog at some sites in southern IL and western KY, it appears lifr
conditions will occur at kevv/kowb through the early morning hours.
Fog is expected to form at kpah/kcgi during the overnight hours, and
lifr conditions are likely at times. Improvement is expected once
the sun burns off the fog Sunday, however it may be a little slower
than earlier forecast. The fog should lift into a cloud deck around
mid-morning, likely mvfr through midday. It may be mid afternoon
before vfr conditions are prevalent.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MY



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