Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 231718

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1218 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Aviation update.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 154 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The current satellite imagery and surface plot shows more
plentiful moisture/clouds perched just to our southwest, poised to
make entry. Within/under them, are surface dew points in the lower
70s. The models have consistently lifted this broad area of
moisture from its Red River valley centered/source region,
northeastward with time Today, as a short wave of energy aloft
advects its positive vorticity toward the Tennessee valley.

As a result, today, we`ll see our pleasant lower 60s dew points
yield to increasing dew points, with lower 70s working their way
into/across SEMO to about the Mississippi river. That`s where the
main focus has been, and continues to be, for our 1st period
chance of pcpn. As one goes east of there, columnar moisture
drops off, the perturbation in the upper flow helping generate
lift flattens out/diminishes, and instability fields in relative
comparison are minimal.

Tonight-Thursday...the remainder of the FA warm sectors early in
the period...with surface TD`s now in the 70s CWA-wide and riding
out the remainder of the short term forecast. Bitmeal pieces of
energy aloft advect their way overtop the broad ridge of high
pressure aloft centered over the Dixieland and arcing into the
heart of our FA upwards to 594 DM at H5. This will effectively cap
off convection for much of the period for southern Ky, while
rimfire Pops occur primarily across our northern and western
peripheral counties. A frontal boundary, with hints of slightly
higher Pops, meanders its way toward said northern border by the
end of the period.

Temp (and humidity) wise, we`ll be moving from the seasonally
fantastic levels of days past to the more summer like feel thru
the short term, which by this time of year, means toward or even
slightly above climo norms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Early Friday, the medium range models were consistent in showing one
surface wind shift associated with a weak cold front across the PAH
forecast area. This feature should have little effect, including

Otherwise, the region will be under the edge of a persistent
southeastern CONUS ridge aloft, which will tend to limit the
strength and coverage of deep moist convection, with a diurnal
signal indicating generally about a 1 out of 3 chance of getting wet
during the daylight hours, and slight chances at night (mainly
evenings). One exception: it will be safe to say that areas west of
the MS River will have a slightly higher PoP Saturday (however no
more than 40%), as the models indicate a zone of warm advection lift
approaching our region from the west ahead of a northern stream mid
level shortwave, then deflecting around the southeastern CONUS
ridge. Isolated locations could possibly get a burst of heavy rain
with a storm through the extended period.

Expect muggy conditions, with dewpoints/low temps in the lower 70s.
Highs will be slightly above average from Saturday on, back to
around 90.


Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Band of showers, isolated thunder moving across southern MO,
northeast AR. Will carry -shra mention at the terminals this
afternoon. The portion headed for KPAH may not hold together as
the high res models show the activity splitting in two parts.
Will monitor. Otherwise VFR conditions for the most part. Late
tonight, early Wednesday, will go with a Prob30 for -shra to hint
there is at least a chance of additional activity. Winds will
generally be light SSE.


.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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