Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 211834
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
134 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Warming aloft thus far today seems to have capped most storm
activity. We`ll continue to carry slight chance for rogue updrafts
busting thru, but drop off aft 00Z to silent mentions. As a
result, heat indices were responding with Advisory levels and
nearing satisfaction of warning thresholds in the Ozarks, at this
writing.

Tmrw into this weekend looks like more of the same, as the broad
central U.S. High pressure ridge aloft extends itself robustly
from the central Plains thru the mid Mississippi valley to mid
Appalachia. In coincidence with that, the mean surface High
pressure center ridges across the Tn valley and into/across the
Commonwealth. The result will be building heat and humidity, with
a continuation of our heat headlines right on thru the weekend. A
look ahead could spell an extension of our Warning to our eastern
border, but will let collab play out on that for final call.

Near daily, esp heat of day, thunderstorm chances cannot be ruled
out completely, so slgt/small chance Pops warranted.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

The broad central U.S. ridge aloft, still strong Sunday, begins
to break down as it is dirtied early in the workweek by numerous
waves of passing northern stream energy. The ridge ends up
retrograding southwestward, allowing some of this energy
aforementioned to spill down across the Mississippi and Ohio
valleys. As a result, we`ll see enhanced Pops beginning Monday and
continuing in almost daily fashion for the remainder of the
period.

That means Sunday heat indices still at extreme levels, will begin
to back off during the weeklong period as convective chances and
residue/associated convective cloudiness muddies the diurnal
curve. It`ll still be hot/humid, but more typical summer like, and
less on the extremest end, so we`ll let the headline expire as
inherited. Monday actually looks like we could achieve advisory
levels, but is also our highest chance Pops day, which could
impact that negatively, so again, the expiration 00Z Monday seems
fit to stay at this writing.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 123 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Isolated convection possible anywhere. But best chance appears to
be NW of a KEVV-KCIR-KPOF line. No mention in the 4 terminal
forecasts at this time. Just CU, and light SSW winds. Will use a
persistence forecast for tonight. Some high clouds possible with
near calm winds and MVFR fog chance. Will monitor the possibility
for convection KEVV/KOWB by early tomorrow. Just an increase in
clouds in the planning part of the forecast for now given rather
low confidence.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ILZ075>078-
     080>094.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ001>009.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KYZ010>022.

&&

$$



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