Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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138
FXUS63 KPAH 060855
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 255 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

Confidence is higher than average in the short term with good
overall model agreement. A dry and tranquil weather pattern will
prevail over the weekend as high pressure shifts east of the
region. Increasing southerly winds on the back side of this high
will result in a warming trend through Sunday. Highs today are
forecast in the lower 50s, with mid 50s on Sunday.

Upper level energy currently entering the Pacific Northwest will
stream across southern Canada before taking a southeast dive into
the Upper Midwest late in the weekend. This will amplify the upper
level pattern across the nation and result in the development of a
deep low pressure system over the Great Lakes region early in the
new week.

Other than a drastic decrease in temperatures on brisk northwest
winds to start the week, the other impact for the immediate area
will be the potential for light precipitation. The first chance
arrives Sunday evening in the form of light rain with the passage
of a strong cold front. The second precipitation chance occurs on
Monday as waves of energy dive southward in the cyclonic flow on
the back side of the upper low. It will be cold enough through the
column for this precipitation to fall in the form of light snow.

While precipitation is forecast to be relatively light, some minor
snow accumulation certainly cannot be ruled out, especially across
portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, and western
Kentucky.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 1247 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

Sunday night, a strong 5220 meter H5 low digs plunges out of
central Canada and into/across the Great Lakes. It plummets 850
mb temps about 10C overnight. Surface temps still in the 40s the
first half of the night, will melt any falling crystals before the
air works down to the surface late in the night...by then...the
precipitating moisture all but gone.

However, on Monday... and even into Tuesday...as the Low slings
its way slowly across the mid-upper Ohio river valley...wrap
around moisture will precipitate/spit out from time to time some light
frozen qpf measured in the hundredths. As the thermal profile
steepens in the colder air, LSR starting at 10 to 1 transition to
15 to 1, which means we maybe could get some minor amounts (half
inch or so) for our eastern counties over the Monday Night-Tuesday
time frame, if all pans out same.

Even though Pcpn winds down by Tue night, as the Low spins on
out/further and further away...mean Long Wave troffing aloft keeps
coolish temps around even as surface High pressure works in later
in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1116 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

High pressure should produce VFR conditions at all sites through
the period. Light and variable winds overnight should pick up out
of the south southwest AOB 5 knots early Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...DH
AVIATION...JP



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