Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 242210
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
510 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 507 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

Updated Aviation Discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

As a vortex in the Great Lakes area ejects into ern Canada, and a
swrn CONUS mid level ridge begins to expand ewd this week, the PAH
forecast area will remain under dry nwrly to nrly flow aloft, and
high pressure at the sfc. Mostly clear and very dry conditions
will prevail through the short term, with below average temps.
Overnight minimum temps are expected to flirt with record low
numbers at many locations tonight and Tue night.

The upper air pattern over our region will become a bit divergent
by Wed night while the low level winds remain mostly out of the
north to ne. Perhaps a few clouds Wed night may help to hold the
lows up a few degrees higher than previous nights.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

There is better than average confidence through the extended with
the synoptic features, but there is some variability in the models
with regard to sensible weather mainly over the weekend.

Cool, dry surface high pressure will dominate the region to start
the extended portions of the forecast, but it will begin to be
pushed east of the area Friday, as south winds try to develop.  This
will lead to some modest return of low-level moisture ahead of a
mid/upper-level disturbance that will move out of the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest and into our region by Saturday. This system
slowly meanders southeast through the region before exiting Monday.
500mb heights will be building up around this disturbance as
troughing pushes into the Pacific Northwest, so it could
definitely get hung up in our vicinity.

The 12Z GEM is quite wet with this system Friday night through
Saturday, while the 12Z GFS and ECMWF are considerably drier.
Surface dewpoints will finally climb into the middle 60s Saturday,
which may be enough to support at least some isolated convection.
Decided to add in small chance PoPs Saturday over most of the area,
and Saturday night across the north.

With the disturbance lingering through Monday and a moistening and
warming trend expected, it is reasonable to think that at least
isolated convection could also linger through Monday. For now will
leave Sunday and Monday dry, and assume that we will be capped.
Besides, we did not want to make too abrupt a change to the nice
totally dry forecast we inherited this morning.

Temperatures will gradually warm up through the period, approaching
normal Saturday and Sunday, and possibly reaching the lower 90s next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 507 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

Surface High Pressure works across the Mississippi Valley during
the forecast period...providing a light northwesterly flow regime
that`s largely diurnally driven. Skies will be moclear but there
may be enough bouyancy north and east to scatter high based cu
decks tmrw pm around 6K FT AGL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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