Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 230447
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1147 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2014

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Big high pressure dome aloft continues ridging over TN valley in
the short term period, thru the weekend, with the net result a
continuation of the high heat, high humidity environ covered by our
Heat Advisory. Most pm Heat Indices continue to top out in the 100
to 105 range, so we remain below warning thresholds even in
duration, save for the isolated locales that are more hit and miss
with their higher readouts.

Satellite/radar mosaic shows moisture/energy topping ridge and
spilling down affecting our far northern and northeastern
counties. This is adequately reflected in the going grids with a
slgt or small chance Pop tonight into the weekend, so little
change beyond minor massaging there.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

The big story of heat and humidity continues thru the early part
of the week, with our Heat Advisory in effect thru Tuesday. Heat
Indices topping out in the 100 to 105 range still look to be a
good bet thru Tuesday pm, as the High pressure dome aloft remains
circulated overtop our FA. This is not to preclude some smallish
mainly heat of day convection from developing though, as the high
becomes dirtied with time.

We see the main shift in the High occur after Tuesday, when
lowering heights from a developing trof to our west begin to break
down its hold over our FA. If the GFS is correct, it will
develop/sweep thru during the mid week with pcpn chances, followed
by a subsequent and hoped for break in the extreme heat and
humidity. Other models like the ECMWF are not so optimistic,
instead just dampening the peak effects of the High, with less of
a comforting cool off. Either way should see with a reasonable
degree of confidence a break in the extreme headline heat/humidity
beginning mid week, while the hoped for pleasant return to lower
80s/low humidity we`ll have to see if it can play out with time in
the models ensemble approach.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

Convection moved into the KEVV/KOWB sites a bit earlier then
expected but mainly impacted the KOWB terminal. This activity should
continue to move south and out of the area soon with not much
organized convection expected for the rest of the night. The area
will be under high pressure aloft on Saturday but a very weak
frontal boundary or trough will be bisecting the area, and may be
enough to spark isolated to sct convection during the day
areawide. Opted to add a vcts to all sites to highlight this
potential. Otherwise, light winds and some cu will likely develop.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR ILZ075>078-080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
     107>112-114.

IN...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KYZ001>022.

&&

$$





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