Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 241532
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1032 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AVIATION SECTION UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ISOLATED STORMS MAY POSSIBLY OVERRUN AN OLD WARM FRONTAL (SECTOR)
BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED JUST TO THE SOUTH/WEST OF THE PAH FA. THIS
WILL IMPACT MAINLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES IN SEMO
TODAY.

OTHERWISE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL BE TO
RIDGE THE UPPER HIGH INTO/ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITH TIME.
RIMFIRE CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...MAY IMPACT
THE AREA...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN SLGT CHANCE MENTIONABLE POPS IS
ANTICIPATED MAINLY FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN OR WESTERN COUNTIES ON
THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. THIS OCCURS AS
NWLY FLOW ALOFT ALLOWS SOME WEAK RIPPLE/WAVE INFLUENCE TOUCHING
ONE OFF IN THE DAYTIME HEAT/HUMIDITY.

THE BROADER EFFECT OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE DOME ALOFT WILL
BE TO GRADUALLY DRIVE TEMPS/HUMIDITY UPWARDS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...CLOSER TO OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO NORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE WEATHER PATTERN ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED IS
LARGELY ONE OF PERSISTENCE AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THE QUAD STATE REGION
WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...WARM AIR ALOFT SHOULD ACT TO KEEP
A LID ON SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

HOWEVER...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WEAK IMPULSES OF ENERGY
ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH MAY YIELD SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES ACROSS
THE EVANSVILLE TRI-STATE...WITH LOWER CHANCES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE BORDERS. CHANCES ALSO APPEAR SOMEWHAT
MORE FAVORABLE BY MID WEEK AS THE MID LEVEL CAP WEAKENS WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO
MID 90S. THE HOT TEMPERATURES PAIRED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WILL YIELD PEAK HEAT INDEX READINGS FROM 100 TO 105 EACH
DAY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. LATE TONIGHT
SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE KPAH AND KCGI...LESS LIKELY KEVV/KOWB
AREAS. WINDS LIGHT.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$



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