Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 170902 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
301 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) I
Issued at 301 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

Snow will continue to rapidly diminish from west to east early
this morning, lingering over west KY and especially the lakes area
eastward through daybreak and shortly after. Probably mostly short
in our warning area (mostly 2-3.5"), though I`m sure we`ll get the
renegade higher snowfall report or two after sunrise. Anyway, no
changes to headlines this late in the game.

Cold is the story today through Tuesday with this next arctic
plunge. Highs today and Tuesday mid 20s to near 30, with cold wind
chills, in the teens during the day, and as low as zero to 5 above
late tonight. May see some cloud redevelopment and flurries later
today, into the early evening. Otherwise quiet weather. Tuesday
night, used a non-diurnal temp trend as southerlies develop, which
should cause steady temps after midnight. Otherwise, stayed at and
below guidance given the decent cold advection and added snow
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2014

Surface high pressure over the southeast U.S. will keep our region
dry Tuesday night into Wednesday, and a return of south to southwest
winds will help temperatures moderate a little from the very cold
temperatures early in the work week.  Models continue to show a weak
dry cold front moving across the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio
valleys Wednesday into Wednesday night.  This will bring another
shot of colder air, with highs Thursday and Friday again dropping
back a couple to several degrees.

For Thursday night and beyond, models continue to be all over the
place.  GFS brings in a shot of precip late Thursday into Thursday
night, then another shot Saturday and through the weekend. ECMWF
bring precip into the area late Friday and continues through the
weekend.  GEM keeps us dry through 12z Saturday, but does match up
well to the GFS at that time.  Went ahead and kept some small PoPs
in across much of the PAH forecast area Thursday night for some
light snow.  By Saturday, when models seems to be lining up, went
with slight chance pops for Saturday for most of the PAH fa, with
increasing chances Saturday night into Sunday.  Fortunately, it
looks like temperatures will be warm enough that it will just be
rain through the weekend.  High by Sunday will only be a few degrees
below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 301 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

Snow will be winding down early this morning, with improving
conditions expected. WNW winds will stay up in the 8-15 kt range.
Later today, may see some lower cloud re-development and some
flurries. Should clear out for the most part tonight.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     ILZ087-089>094.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     ILZ075>078-080>086-088.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ110>112-114.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     MOZ076-086-087-100-107>109.

IN...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     INZ085>088.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     INZ081-082.

KY...WINTER STORM WARNING until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     KYZ003>005-007-010-014-015-018-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 6 AM CST early this morning FOR
     KYZ001-002-006-008-009-011>013-016-017-020>022.

&&

$$










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