Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250442
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE ALL POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI HAS PUSHED WELL WEST OF OUR
AREA...AND THE LATEST HRRR TAKES IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAREST CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
IS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHAT EVER
IS LEFT OF IT WILL NOT REACH OUR REGION BY 12Z.

THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER DEWPOINT GRADIENT TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE CALM AND SKIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD TAKE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS.
AS A RESULT...KNOCKED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE REGION.

WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO SATURATION BY
DAYBREAK...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FIRST ITEM IS...WE WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION OF SEMO. WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT ADDRESS THIS AS WE ARE BARELY AT CRITERIA. COORD WITH MEG
AND THEY DO NOT HAVE ONE OUT YET TO OUR SOUTH. HI RES MODELS KEEP
CONVECTION WEST OF SEMO REST OF TODAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND MONITOR. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION OVER SEMO (MAINLY LATE). HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WE HAVE HAVE A CONTINUED SLIM CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR WEST
SATURDAY. QUASI MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PRECLUDE EASTWARD
EXPANSION. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A NW FLOW ON THE EDGE OF H5 RIDGE TO OUR SW. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INCREASE FROM THE NW AS A RESULT. HEIGHTS START TO RISE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO OUR NE.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS DURING
THE DAY...AND NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF A SRN CONUS
MID/UPPER RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MED RANGE MODELS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES) HAVE SHOWN SOME
VARIABILITY...BUT ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...A ROBUST SHRTWV ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS...DRAGGING A SFC
BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT HUMID
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE IN NRN REACHES OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA ON MON/MON NIGHT. SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY MAY
ACT ON THIS BOUNDARY AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT ONLY FOR PARTS OF SERN IL/SWRN IND/ERN
PENNYRILE REGION.

TUE/TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY UNDER THE CAPPING INFLUENCE OF THE SRN
RIDGE...THEN HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO HAPPEN BY WED...AND THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP THE TROP`S MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AT
THIS TIME...FROPA IS SLATED TO OCCUR WED NIGHT. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PCPN FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION MAINLY EARLY THU. STILL...POPS WILL NOT BE HIGHER
THAN 40 PERCENT DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WITH DEWPOINTS INITIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S...EXPECT A
ROUND OF UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES THROUGH WED. READINGS
OF 105 (HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA) MAY BE COMMON IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
REGION MON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY TUE AND WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPAH/KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 07Z-13Z. MID-
HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI WILL
MAINLY AFFECT KCGI/KPAH OVERNIGHT. KCGI CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...RST



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