Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250826 CCA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE SEEN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO WESTERN GULF
COAST CONTINUES TO LIFT NE...WITH BROAD AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS STREAMING FROM MS/WRN TN INTO THE CWFA. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRACK NE. CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE COURSE
OF THE DAY WITH THE MODELS SHOWING A DECREASE IN OVERALL MOISTURE.
A FEW SPOTS JUST TOUCHED LOCALLY DEFINED SUSTAINED CRITERIA (15
MPH / 1 HR) FOR LAKE WIND ADVISORY YESTERDAY. SEVERAL SPOTS WERE
OFTEN TIMES BELOW. 15 MPH IS MARGINAL TO BEGIN WITH...AND WITH
THE LOW TROP WINDS FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW YESTERDAY`S VALUES...NOT
GOING TO ISSUE ONE AT THIS TIME. LIKE YESTERDAY...IT CAN BE UP TO
THE DAY SHIFT. LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT REALIZED YESTERDAY AND THAT
WOULD BE THE CASE AGAIN TODAY. ALSO...AWFUL LOT OF FANFARE
YESTERDAY FOR SEVERE THAT NEVER REALLY MATERIALIZED. ONE OR TWO
ISOLATED INSTANCES WITH MAINLY STRONG STORMS (SPOT MARGINAL
SEVERE) DUE TO STRONG WINDS. WIND FIELDS DIMINISH TODAY WITH
CONTINUED INADEQUATE LAPSE RATES AND LACK OF FRONTAL FOCUS. NOT
MUCH CONCERN FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY.

TONIGHT SECOND WAVE CURRENTLY SEEN APPROACHING WEST TEXAS WILL
LIFT NE AND INCREASE CONVECTIVE CHANCES...ESPECIALLY BY MIDNIGHT
ON FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE AREA. SO THE EARLY EVENING...MAY NOT
BE THAT MUCH ACTIVITY...UNTIL THE WAVE ARRIVES. TUESDAY THE WAVE
AND MOISTURE CONTINUE TO LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN...PUZZLED
BY THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE FOR US. WINDS FIELDS ARE WEAKER
TUESDAY THAN WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. AS WE SAW...DESPITE YESTERDAYS
WIND FIELDS IT WAS DIFFICULT TO ACHIEVE SEVERE WITHOUT SFC TO LOW
TROP FRONTAL FORCING AND WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES. NOW WE DO HAVE
SLIGHTLY BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FORECAST TUESDAY AND A TAD
MORE INSTABILITY. SO AGAIN...GIVEN WHAT`S AVAILABLE...CERTAINLY
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO BRIEF SEVERE. BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING MAJOR. STRONG WINDS...MAYBE SOME HAIL.

A DECREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER MODERATE CHANCE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE THIRD IN THE SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A WET HUMID EXTENDED. LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
STORMS.

ONCE AGAIN THE MODELS AGREE ON NEGATIVE LI`S AND CAPES < 1KG/M/2 FOR
THE EXTENDED. K INDEX AROUND 30+ AND SHOWALTERS NEGATIVE MOST OF THE
TIME WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FEW OVERNIGHT PERIODS. THUS...ANY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY AT LEAST A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BUT AGAIN DO
NOT SEE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE WIND PROFILES. HOWEVER THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THIS
INSTABILITY CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WIND OR
HAIL. ALSO A BYPRODUCT OF USING THE SUPER BLEND OR EXTENDED INIT IT
WANTS PUT A LOW CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHC IN THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
THE SUMMER BARRING A DROUGHT OF COURSE. SO AGAIN TRIED TO PICK SOME
DRY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AS
WELL. I THINK THIS WILL BE A PERSISTENT ISSUE THROUGH THE CONVECTIVE
SEASON. THE LATEST GFS HAS COME DROPPED THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND WHILE THE ECMWF RETAINS ITS PASSAGE SUNDAY. WILL
WEIGHT THE ECMWF`S MORE STABLE SCENARIO FOR NOW BUT IT SHOWS A MUCH
WEAKER FRONT AS WELL. BOTH HOWEVER HAVE US ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY
HUMID CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND WHEN THEY DIVERGE. OPTED
ONCE AGAIN TO GO WITH MORE STABLE COOLER LATE IN THE WEEKEND
ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

HAD TO AMD THE TAFS BY 07Z TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CONVECTION AT THE
SITES THROUGH EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE...WITH THE DEPARTURE OF
THIS INITIAL MID LEVEL WAVE TODAY...DECREASING CHANCES MEANS NO
MENTION IN THE TAFS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. MAY HAVE TO
CONSIDER A PLANNING MENTION 06Z ON WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL WAVE
APPROACHING THE AREA TONIGHT. VARIABLE CIGS EXPECTED AND WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. GENERALLY VFR WITH MVFR AT TIMES. SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THOUGH GUIDANCE INDICATES NOT AS GUSTY
AS YESTERDAY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$


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