Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 040451
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1151 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
Issued at 640 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PoPs removed. Patchy fog added again. Adjusted evening
temp decline to match past 3 days (persistence), and adjusted
our rise (faster) tomorrow morning. Skies mostly clear.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Still waiting to see if any isolated convection forms late this
afternoon as latest satellite shows a healthy cu field. Will
maintain the isolated wording through 00Z to cover any late day
activity. Temperatures are in the lower 90s with heat index values
in the mid to upper 90s in many places.

12Z upper air analysis and water vapor imagery depicts a large
amplified upper ridge across the middle of the country, extending up
into Canada. An upper level low was situated over the Great Lakes
region. Over the next several days this ridge axis will slowly shift
east with time. But how far east it makes it into the CWA will
depend on the progression of a westward moving system slated to move
into the Carolinas by the end of the weekend.

In the meantime, our region will generally be on the east side of
the upper ridge aloft and high pressure at the surface. Disturbances
are progged to dive south toward the area. However...deep moisture
is lacking and will be lacking for a while. A ribbon of moisture can
be found in the 850mb-700mb layer but that`s about it. Enough to
warrant a few isolated, impossible to know where they will form,
type showers or storms...as we`ve seen recently. We will leave the
forecast dry for now. We might see an increase in deeper moisture by
Saturday night into Sunday, as the aforementioned system inches
closer to our eastern/southeastern counties. But models have still
not congealed on a common solution as to how far the better moisture
and/or precip will make it back into the area.

Therefore...expect the warm and humid weather to continue into the
first part of this holiday weekend. Persistence and latest guidance
numbers continue to indicate that lower 90s will be commonplace
Friday and Saturday...with dewpoints hovering in the upper 60s to
around 70. This will produce heat indicies close to 100 degrees in
many places.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Average confidence continues in the short term period due to model
differences, especially the latter two thirds of the period.

At the beginning of the long term period, weak high pressure at the
surface and aloft will be the dominant weather features affecting
our CWA, therefore dry conditions are forecast for the first two
periods.

The forecast for Monday through the rest of the long term period
becomes a bit more uncertain due to model timing and synoptic
differences. That being said, with the approach and eventual passage
of a cold front, precipitation chances slowly increase and
overspread the entire CWA with the best chances being Wednesday
and/or Wednesday night which at this time appears to be the most
likely timing of the fropa. With subsequent model runs pops may have
to be adjusted depending on a better handling of the fropa. At this
time thunderstorms are not expected to become severe during the
period.

Above normal temperatures at the beginning of the period will slowly
cool back to near normal readings by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1151 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

Starting to see the evidence of haze development in some of the
observations this evening, prior to the onset of fog. Minor
adjustments made for the use of MIFG versus a higher level IFR
visibility for KPAH, KEVV, and KOWB. Kept MIFG at KCGI to account
for ground fog near the sensor.

Otherwise persistance forecast again with this package. Any
cumulus development will be delayed as more energy is used heating
up the lithometers versus water molecules.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Smith


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