Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 270746
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
246 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

Another active period of convection is shaping up, with
instability/lift mechanisms present for an event this pm/evening
as the primary synoptic Low circulates first the warm front, then
the cold front, across the mid Mississippi river valley later
today and tonight. A slgt risk of svr storms exists per SPC SWODY1
from Missouri southward to the Gulf coast, including nearly entire
PAH FA. For us, that svr threat will be highest during the
afternoon/early evening, with waning storm chances into/through
the overnight hours, as convective elements are pushed
eastward/diminished.

Pops may linger overnight, but effectively a dry/mild period
ensues thenceforth through the remainder of the workweek.
Teleconnected ridging should hold off the model hinted return pops
Friday night, some of which could work into the SEMO Ozarks but
mostly holds off for the weekend.

Temps should range the 70s, or low 80s for highs, and 50s, or low
60s, for lows, through the period.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

A transition in the upper level flow pattern is expected during
the long term period. The active southwest flow will transition
to increasing troughiness over the Eastern states and ridging
over the West. This will result in a weaker west to northwest flow
aloft over our region early next week.

As far as the weekend system, model differences have increased
regarding this final southwest flow system. The surface low track
has changed appreciably in most of the models. The bulk of the
guidance now develops a surface low over the Lower Ohio Valley on
Sunday, which appears to be a reflection of a shortwave rotating
around the base of the Plains closed low. The models did not really
show this shortwave 24 hours ago, which is why their low track was
further north at that time. Despite the model changes in synoptic
features, there is not much change in the sensible weather forecast
for the weekend. It still appears numerous showers and thunderstorms
will occur Saturday into Sunday. Instability continues to look
marginal for convection on Saturday as the pre warm frontal airmass
will be rain-cooled. There is somewhat stronger instability on
Sunday as moisture pools near the low track. Some locally heavy
rainfall amounts are likely once again, although nothing excessive
is indicated at this time.

Drier air will filter in early next week, but the models vary in how
quickly the upper trough will swing southeast from the Plains.
Depending on the timing of the trough, clouds and some isolated
showers may linger through Tuesday. Highs will drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s. Lows will drop to around 50 by Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2016

MVFR cigs will present in convection, both during the pre dawn
hours and again with diurnal/pm convection. Outside those two
valleys, VFR bases anticipated. Similarly, showers/storms will
restrict vsbys to MVFR at times, and IFR is not out of the
question in a thunderstorm, though not included in the existing
package. Otherwise VFR anticipated until active convection.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$



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