Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 250415

1014 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

Issued at 1014 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Updated the aviation section.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 200 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Winds are still brisk/gusty but will diminish with the setting
sun. We`ll likely follow suite with our collab neighbors and let
the Advisory expire with the next package, as we`re already
largely below advisory thresholds.

Cyclone clouds are still rotating across the mid MS valley, and
will impact mainly our northern CWA thru the night. Small pcpn
chances appear to stay to the north.

Lower heights continue thru the day tmrw, and a clipper like wave
rotates thru the region Wednesday. This means, despite a return of
sunshine tmrw, we will be staying in the cooler than climo mode
thru Wednesday. However, it does look that the timing of the
clipper and its path is such that most/all pcpn should be liquid,
given it is mainly a daytime passage when surface temps are in the

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 200 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Models appear relatively consistent in their depiction during the
long term, thus confidence is higher than average.

In the wake of the Wednesday system, dry and cold weather will
prevail Thursday and Thursday night as northwest flow becomes
established between an upper level trough in the east and ridging
out west. Highs Thursday will struggle to reach 40 with lows
Thursday night in the mid 20s as the core of surface high pressure
passes through.

A substantial modification in temperatures will begin Friday and
continue into the weekend as the upper flow pattern becomes zonal
and low level winds become southerly. Unfortunately, the weekend
looks to be shrouded in cloud cover as models indicate a rapid
moistening of the atmosphere below 850 mb. With the abundant low
level moisture and weak isentropic lift, some light rain or drizzle
activity will be possible Saturday into Sunday. Highs will average
in the 50s both weekend days.

A somewhat better chance of rain enters the scene Sunday night and
Monday as a cold front makes passage. Even with the focus of the
front, rain totals should remain on the light side. Forecast models
agree that temperature profiles during this time will be too warm to
support anything other than liquid precipitation.


Issued at 1014 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

Clouds on the decrease, with clear skies expected for the rest of
the night. Light WSW winds expected to continue below 5 kts.
Some high clouds possible Tuesday, with NW winds 5-10kts. There
may be some cu/strato-cu around KEVV/KOWB, though model CU rule
progs are less supportive of this possibility, than basic RH progs.
Should be clear from 00z on with wind becoming calm.



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