Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 270759
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
259 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS ALL
OVER THE PLACE TRYING TO DETERMINE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTION IN THE PERIOD.

THE BIG STORY...IF YOU WILL...IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE RETURN
OF OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THAT
HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 105 MAINLY OVER OUR SEMO COUNTIES
BUT WILL BE HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD ON TUESDAY SO WILL ISSUE A
HEAT ADVISORY ACCORDINGLY AND JUST GO WITH AN SPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...CLOUD
COVER...CONVECTION...ETC HEAT INDICES MAY HAVE A HARD TIME REACHING
ADVISORY CRITERIA SO WILL NOT INCLUDE WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME.

IN THE MEANTIME...SINCE MODELS NOT GETTING A HANDLE ON CURRENT
CONVECTION OR FORECAST CONVECTION FOR THAT MATTER...DECIDED TO GO
WITH A COMBINATION OF HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS HRRR/ARW. OF COURSE
ALOT WILL DEPEND ON THE PESKY H5 RIDGE AND WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES THAT OCCASIONALLY NOSE IN ACROSS THE REGION SHUTTING
DOWN CONVECTION. A SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT JUST TO OUR NORTH AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING IS FORECAST TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA
TODAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME WHICH IS WHAT THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE BUT ON TUESDAY THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY WILL HAVE LIFTED BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA SO ANY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED
TO THAT AREA. NOT TOO SURE WHAT TO DO WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SO MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT SO WILL LEAVE DRY FOR
THE TIME BEING.

BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY WITH
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A BONA FIDE COLD FRONT. EVEN WITH VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...MODELS
SHOWING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY LINGER OVER OUR FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS SCOURED OUT BY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEYOND THAT IT SHOULD BE DRY AND GETTING COOLER
WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG TERM PATTERN WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.

IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS LATE IN THE WEEK.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST
TO RETROGRADE BACK INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. AS HEIGHTS FALL AND
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS...MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION. IN FACT...HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO
REACH ONLY THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SLOW WARMING IS ANTICIPATED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES. BUT EVEN BY SUNDAY...HIGHS SHOULD
NOT MOVE MUCH BEYOND THE 90 DEGREE MARK. DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN REACHES
OF THE QUAD STATE REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEEING A PERSISTENT SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS KEVV AND KOWB THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL TREAT IT WITH A VCSH
THROUGH MID-MORNING AND AMEND AS NECESSARY. NOT AS CONFIDENT IN
SHOWERS IMPACTING KCGI AND KPAH...SO KEPT THEM DRY. CONFINED FOG
FORECAST TO PREVAILING MVFR AT KPAH ONLY...AS IT IS THE LEAST
LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE SHOWERS OR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH BUILDING BACK
OVER THE REGION MONDAY...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ILZ075-076-
     080>094.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-
     100-107>112-114.

IN...NONE.
KY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KYZ001>009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...RJP
AVIATION...DRS


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