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000 FXUS63 KSGF 220805 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 205 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009 .DISCUSSION... FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CURRENTLY...SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA FROM A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA THIS MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER LOUISIANA THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO GIVE US SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING IN AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH LOW TO MID 50S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE THE UPPER 40S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING TWO SHORTWAVES MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA FROM THE WEST. FIRST...CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH SECOND SYSTEM JUST COMING ONSHORE AND MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUT HERE TODAY AS THE GULF COAST LOW MOVES EAST. EXPECTING VERY NICE TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 60S AREA WIDE. FIRST SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE DRY AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY AND GULF MOISTURE RETURN CUT OFF FROM THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH...BELIEVE THIS WILL BE MAINLY A DRY FROPA WITH SOME VARIABLE CLOUDINESS. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO COOL ABOUT 4C...DOWN TO AROUND +5C BY MONDAY MORNING...SO WOULD EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S. THE SECOND SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM TRACKING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF GETTING GULF MOISTURE RETURN. GFS SHOWING LOW 50 DEW POINTS OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT MONDAY EVENING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. A 90KT JET MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. INSTABILITY IS NOT ALL THAT GREAT WITH AROUND 100-150 J/KG OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. PRETTY GOOD CAA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES FALL TO -2C ON THE GFS. UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. WOULD EXPECT TUESDAY TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WOULD EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LOW PULLS OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SECOND CLOSED LOW CLIPPING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -8C...925MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -4C ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. MODELS NOT SHOWING ANY QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WHITE STUFF OUT OF THIS AS THEY DO NOT TYPICALLY DO WELL ON PRECIP WITH THESE SYSTEMS THAT CLIP THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. WILL HOLD OFF FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO SEE IF THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES PERSIST BEFORE ADDING ANY SNOW INTO THE FORECAST. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY BEFORE SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLAYCOMB && .AVIATION... FOR THE 22/0600Z KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE W-E THROUGH MO LATE SUNDAY...BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. DSA && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
