Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 190430
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1130 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)

Un-phased twin depressions were moving across the the United
States mainland today. Neither of which were impacting the Ozarks.
However, upper ridging in between these depressions was building
over the nation`s mid section, and will allow for a fantastic
weekend across the Ozarks.

Today was difficult for anyone having to be indoors. Under full
sunshine, temperatures warmed to near 70, with light and variable
winds.

As a surface ridge axis shifts into the eastern Ozarks tonight,
light southerly winds will commence for most areas. Look for
overnight lows to fall into the 40s.

Saturday will be another fabulous day for outdoor activities.
Mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 70s will feel
great. South winds will range from around 5 mph in south central
Missouri, to around 15 mph in the Osage Plains.

Perhaps a little more cloud cover on Sunday can be expected, as a
storm system approaches from the west. We still think mostly dry
conditions will unfold for Sunday, with highs back into the 70s.
It`s not until Sunday night or early Monday morning, is when rain
chances are back in the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Friday)

Accompanied by a cold front, our next storm system approaches the
region Sunday night into Monday morning. Models indicate surface
dew points increasing into the middle 50s. I suspect cloud cover
will limit diurnal warming, therefore, instability will be on the
low end. Updraft intensity will be affected by this, with general
showers and thunderstorms the primary risk with Monday`s weather.

After lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s Monday night,
temperatures will rebound back into the upper 60s and lower 70s on
Tuesday. A warming trend will ensue from there, with readings in
the upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. Wouldn`t be surprised to
observe some low 80s out toward Joplin or Pittsburg. No
precipitation is expected Tuesday through Thursday morning.

However, by Thursday afternoon and evening, both the GFS and the
Euro bring in a spring like storm system across the Dakotas. Weak
lift along with an approaching cold front should trigger some
convection across the Ozarks, either Thursday afternoon or night.
This system could be our next shot at some active spring like
weather.

Have a great weekend and enjoy the beautiful spring weather !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1124 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. A sfc
ridge will remaining place from the Great Lakes to east TX through
the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA





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