Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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764
FXUS63 KSGF 270438
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1138 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Clusters of thunderstorms have developed over central MO, the most
notable of which is located near and east of the KC metro. A weak
front lies over central MO and is now reinforced by outflow
boundaries in some areas. MLCAPE values of 2000-3000 j/kg and
convergence on boundaries/weak shear will continue to allow pulse
storms/clusters to develop into the evening hours. Stronger storms
will pose a damaging wind threat. Locally heavy rain/localized
flooding, especially in poor drainage areas, will also be a
concern.

Activity should drift south and weaken tonight with some renewed
daytime showers/storms Monday focused farther south toward the
MO/AR border.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

An upper level pattern change continues to be indicated with a
ridge building over the western CONUS and northwest flow over our
region. Cooler/dryer sfc high pressure will move into the Midwest
for Tue/Wed.

Upper level shortwaves in the nw flow will eventually bring
periodic chances for thunderstorms as some low level moisture
return develops ahead of another sfc front late Wed/Thu.
Unsettled/active convective weather will then continue late in
the week as the low level boundary/baroclinic zone sets up over
the area and upper level shortwaves/lift continue to interact with
it. The ECMWF and GFS are in relative agreement through this
period, but mesoscale/small scale weather features are hard to pin
down this far out. However, it does look active.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Stronger convection from earlier in the evening has shifted south
of the CWA. Band of mainly showers from mid level clouds was over
southeast Kansas and western MO affecting the JLN terminal as of
0430z. We have this activity shifting east and affecting both
SGF/BBG during the overnight hours but should remain VFR. Am not
currently putting it in terminals, but will need to monitor for
some fog in the overnight period with a light wind expected to
develop and moist boundary layer due to this evenings rain.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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