Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 060402

1002 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2015

Issued at 951 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

We have made some minor temperature updates for the overnight
period. A surface ridge axis currently extends from central
Illinois into the Table Rock Lake region and then continues
southwest into southeastern Oklahoma.

Winds are starting to increase out of the southeast across
western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas behind this axis.
This will likely keep temperatures from falling all that much
more across this region. Overnight lows were nudged up 2-3 degrees
generally west of Highway 65.

In stark contrast, the combination of calm winds and fresh
snow pack will keep temperatures steadily dropping across the
eastern Ozarks. We are still on track for single digits across
south-central Missouri.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

Large area of high pressure at the surface continues to invade the
Midwest. In spite of full sunshine, northerly winds and fresh
snow/sleet pack have kept temperatures some 20 to 30 degrees below
average today. March sun angle is doing its work on existing
snow/sleet cover, but it will take another day or two before
everything is melted.

Forecast for temperatures tonight is about as tricky as it comes.
The surface ridge of high pressure will shift into the area this
evening, bringing light winds. With a clear sky in place,
temperatures will quickly drop this evening. As the high shifts to
the south and east, southerly winds will pick up across western
and northwestern areas and temperatures will level off/slowly rise
overnight. Now, in areas where snow cover exists across southern
Missouri, winds will not really respond there until daybreak
Friday. As a result, temperatures should drop considerably here.
The range of guidance for UNO from various models/MOS is -1 to 14
degrees. Given a current dewpoint of 5, have gone with lows in the
3 to 7 degree range, though valleys could indeed dip to around 0
degrees. As southerly winds develop across the area, will most
likely see readings bounce around from hour to hour. Needless to
say, it`s very tricky and updates should be expected.

A pattern change begins tomorrow and southwesterly winds will give
a nice boost to temperatures. We will still be below average for
highs, but given full sun and warm advection, temperatures well
into the 40s will feel nice.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

No major changes were needed for the extended portion of the
forecast. 12z suite of model output continues support previous
runs in maintaining a warming trend well into next week. The only
minor change to the forecast was to include slight chance PoPs for
rain across southern Missouri Sunday as a weak front moves into
the area. Models indicate that a little better moisture may be
available to this front. Otherwise, expect quiet and near average
conditions for the weekend and quiet and above average
temperatures for much of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 448 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions are expected through Friday with mainly clear
skies. Light and variable winds tonight will increase out of the
south to southwest on Friday.




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