Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 190512 AAB
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

An upper level ridge of high pressure is currently pushing east
across the southwestern U.S. This is leaving the region in an
upper level northwest flow pattern. A weak disturbance is expected
to move through this northwest flow tonight and trigger storms
across northeastern Kansas into northwestern Missouri late this
evening. This activity will then push to the southeast overnight
into Tuesday morning, mainly remaining north and east of the area
but may clip portions of central Missouri. Theta-E differences and
MUCAPE values over 2000 J/kg could support a few strong storms
wind gust in excess of 50 mph with any line segments that can
develop.

An outflow boundary from this activity will develop and push south
through the rest of the area tonight and Tuesday morning.
Additional storms will be possible along this boundary with the
best chances remaining along and north of the Highway 54 corridor,
with storms weakening as the approach Highway 60. This convection
should dissipate by the late morning hours Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

The upper level high will move east and over the region by
Thursday. Storms are expected to develop across northern Missouri
again Tuesday night and push to the southeast again, but with the
upper level high pushing farther to the east this activity will
mainly occur north and east of the area, maybe just clipping the
far eastern Ozarks.

The upper level high will then remain over the region Thursday
into the weekend, ushering in a very warm air mass. Highs will
top up in the middle to upper 90s each afternoon Thursday into
this weekend, with heat index values generally in the 100 to 105
degree range. Afternoon mixing may help heat index values from
getting too out of hand but, never the less, hot conditions can
still be expected this week and weekend. Dry conditions are
also expected Wednesday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

Forecast remains tricky over the next 12 hours. Storms have fired
across central Kansas and are treking to the east southeast thus
far. This activity will continue to expand east and will
eventually move more toward the southeast with time. As a result,
have changed PROB30 groups at JLN and SGF to TEMPO for
thunderstorms prior to sunrise. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions will be
possible with the heavier downpours. VFR conditions are expected
from Tuesday afternoon and beyond.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Gagan





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