Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
000
FXUS63 KSGF 171728
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Elevated fire weather conditions through Tuesday.
- Sub freezing temperatures forecast for Monday and Tuesday
morning`s.
- Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
early this morning shows the cutoff low in about the same place
as last night at this time in Arizona. High amplitude ridge axis
extended from the Pacific west of California to the northeast
into the Pacific northwest. East of that ridge axis, a polar jet
streak was shifting southeast across the plains and upper
Mississippi valley which helped to push a front through the area
earlier today and this evening. Mid level cloud cover was over
the southern half of Missouri, however precipitation was south
of the area with the better lift and moisture. Temperatures over
the area were still in the upper 40s to upper 50s across the
area with dew points in the upper 20s to low 40s.
Today and tonight: The cold air mass will continue to plunge
south into the area today with cloud cover eventually ending
during the late morning and early afternoon. Winds will then
gust into the 20 to 30 mph range. Afternoon humidity levels will
dip into the 20 to 32 percent range which will bring about
widespread elevated fire weather conditions. Afternoon highs
will be cooler than yesterday...in the low 50s to around 60. A
cold night is in store for the area with a hard freeze over much
of the area. While we are not quite doing freeze warnings yet
for the Spring growing season, those who already have outdoor
vegetation growing may want to take preventive measures for a
hard freeze over the next couple of nights. We are looking at
lows in the mid 20s to around 30 tonight.
Monday: While plenty of sunshine is expected with a dry air mass
moving overhead, it will be cold with highs only in the mid to
upper 40s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper
50s to low 60s. Another afternoon with humidity levels in the 20
to 30 percent range will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions again.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Sub Freezing temperatures again on Monday night: While the
Canadian high pressure system will push south of the area on
Monday into Monday night with a return to a southerly wind, the
dry air mass and clear sky will allow temperatures to dip back
into the mid 20s to low 30s across the area for another hard
freeze for all but the far west.
Elevated fire weather conditions continue into Tuesday: Dry air
will continue into Tuesday afternoon with humidity levels again
dipping into the 20s and 30s.
Rain chances return late Wednesday into Thursday night. The
cutoff low in the desert southwest will begin to open up with
the trough shifting eastward during the middle to later part of
the week. Some timing and location differences are still
occurring within the ensemble data, however it does bring rain
chances back to the area from late Wednesday into Thursday
night.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Mar 17 2024
VRF conditions will occur across the area this afternoon through
Monday as surface high pressure moves over the region. Northerly
wind gusts up to around 20kt will occur this afternoon into
early this evening then winds will decrease some tonight and
will become more northwesterly on Monday and gusty winds of 15
to 20kt will develop again late Monday morning.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Wise