Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 220450
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1150 PM CDT Thu Aug 21 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

An upper level ridge and a warm airmass is over the region this
afternoon. Temperatures have warmed into the the middle 90s across
much of the area. Dew points are a little higher this afternoon
than the last several days as mixing has been slower to develop
which allowed heat index values in the 100 to 105 range to occur.
Dew points are starting to mix down slightly now and should keep
overall heat index values in the upper 90s to 104 the rest of the
afternoon.

A little better mid level moisture is currently in place across
the eastern Ozarks and a few isolated storms are trying to develop as
of the mid afternoon hours. Think a storm or two will be possible
east of Highway 63 this afternoon, but most locations will remain
dry as these will be very hit and miss, small, and short lived in nature.

Storms are expected to develop again to the north tonight a lot
like last night but a tad farther south across northern Missouri,
remaining well north of the area. Will have to watch for any outflow
boundaries pushing south from this overnight convection on Friday.
A drier mid level airmass will be spreading into the area from the
northwest on Friday, but an area of better mid level moisture will
remain in place near the Missouri Arkansas border Friday
afternoon. If an outflow boundary can reach this area an isolated storm
could be possible, but overall, the potential for this is low and will
not include a mention of thunder at this time in any products.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

The upper level ridge will remain centered over the region through
early next week. Temperatures will warm into the middle to upper
90s on a daily basis during this time. A dry mid level airmass
will continue to spread into the region this weekend and forecast
soundings show a good setup for afternoon dew points mixing down
which should keep heat index values in check over the week. Heat
index values will likely be near or slightly higher than the actual
air temperatures with values in the upper 90s to around 100 each
afternoon into early next week.

An upper level trough will then push through the region during the
middle of next week sending a front through the area and a
slightly cooler airmass. The front will also bring chances for
scattered showers and storms to the region. Medium range models
do differ on the timing of the trough and front some, which
impacts when the precipitation chances will occur. Will just need to pin
point the exact timing with future model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

Summertime high pressure was dominating the Ozarks Region keeping
skies mostly clear and temperatures hot.

Pilots need to be aware that low level wind shear is expected the
rest of tonight. 40 knots of southwest flow at around 2000 feet is
forecasted, due to a low level jet strengthening.

No obstructions to visibilities or ceilings are forecasted at this
time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Cramer





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