Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291948

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
248 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

We have seen isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
develop this afternoon in a weakly capped environment. In general,
instability has been too weak to warrant any kind of severe
potential. However, some of the short range models indicate that
portions of south-central Missouri may see a brief window where
stronger pulse-type storms may develop late this afternoon into
early this evening. Otherwise, storms will diminish as we get
into this evening due to the loss of heating.

We are then generally looking at dry conditions from late this
evening into the early overnight period. A few storms may then try
and get into portions of extreme southeastern Kansas and west-
central Missouri late tonight as convection begins to shift
southeast out of the central Plains.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will then persist into
Tuesday as an upper level ridge of high pressure breaks down over
the region. We will also see a cold front begin to approach the
Ozarks in the afternoon. Temperatures ahead of this front will
still be rather warm with highs in the upper 80s to near 90

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

That front will continue to sink south through the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday as short wave energy dives southeast through
the Corn Belt. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will
increase...especially on Wednesday as that short wave energy
begins to influence the region.

Surface high pressure will then build into the region to end the
week. This will result in dry weather and cooler conditions. High
temperatures will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s to end the work
week with lows in the 50s over most areas.

Global models then indicate a return to southwest flow aloft
early next week. This will result in a warming trend along with a
slow increase in low level moisture. Any chances for precipitation
will likely be tied to short wave energy embedded in the
southwest flow aloft and/or afternoon pop-up storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Generally, VFR conditions expected through much of this TAF
cycle. There is a very small chance of a shower or storm this
evening across the terminals, however, the odds are so
small...decided to leave out mention for now. The only slight
issue looks to be with BBG and some MVFR visibility (light fog)
potential early tomorrow morning (similar to the last several).


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Frye is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.