Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 060435
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

Some weak convection has developed across southwestern Missouri
along an area of weak convergence in the lower atmosphere.
Additional activity is ongoing across northern Arkansas in the
higher terrain. Some of this activity may linger into this evening
and should diminish with the loss of daytime heating. The
prospects for overnight convection then look low, but are not
zero. Weak low-level jet-lets will induce localized areas of
isentropic upglide which may be enough for an isolated shower or
thunderstorm.

More pop-up showers and thunderstorms will then be possible on
Monday as a weak short wave trough pushes across the area. The
best chance for thunderstorms will exist along and southeast of
the I-44 corridor. Highs again on Monday should be in the middle
to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A cold front will then push southeast into portions of extreme
southeastern Kansas and west-central Missouri Monday evening.
Thunderstorms will erupt late Monday afternoon along this front
from northern Missouri down the I-35 corridor into northern
Oklahoma. Cold pool conglomeration will be very aggressive as low-
level theta-e differentials will be strong. While this line may be
outflow dominant and starting to weaken by the time it reaches
west- central Missouri later Monday evening, the strong cold pool
alone may result in some wind damage potential. In addition to the
wind threat along the leading edge of this line, we will have to
watch precipitation amounts closely. High moisture content in the
atmosphere will support heavy rainfall potential as this weakening
line moves into western Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas
Monday night.

A good chance for showers and thunderstorms will then persist
through Tuesday and Wednesday as that front settles into our
region and remains nearly stationary. The prospects for heavy
rainfall will persist and a Flash Flood Watch may eventually be
needed. The potential for any strong to severe storms will be
highly dependent on how much instability can develop.

Global models then try to build a summertime upper level ridge of
high pressure back to the north and west across the Lower
Mississippi Valley late this week. This may promote that front
shifting back to the north of the Ozarks...along with the better
thunderstorm chances. After cooler temperatures around the midweek
period, a warming trend is in store for later in the week given
that ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1127 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

Pilots can expect primarily VFR conditions at area terminals
tonight and Monday. Some patchy fog may develop overnight
especially at the Branson terminal. South to southwest winds will
increase Monday ahead of an approaching front. The chance of
thunderstorms will increase Monday night as this system moves into
the area.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster





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