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000
FXUS63 KSGF 151653
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1153 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

AS EXPECTED...A VERY MESSY WEATHER SITUATION UNFOLDING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.

WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF
TODAY...EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF TODAY.

WE HAVE A DANGEROUS SITUATION UNFOLDING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
SPRINGFIELD. DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES UPWARDS OF 5 TO 6 INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE FALLEN AND WE ARE BEGINNING TO GET GROUND TRUTH REPORTS
CONFIRMING THESE ESTIMATES. A SPOTTER SEVEN MILES SOUTH OF
SPRINGFIELD HAS MEASURED 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST TWO HOURS.
THIS STORM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND IS NOT ONLY PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT SEVERAL REPORTS OF QUARTER TO GOLF BALL
SIZED HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS SHIFTED INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING AFTER MAKING THE TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. BEST INSTABILITY
IS OVER WESTERN MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS WITH CORFIDI VECTORS
POINTING TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO BUMP UP POPS FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL MO. SCATTERED SHOWERY ACTIVITY TRYING TO
GET GOING OVER OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOW LEVEL
JET STREAK.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES
MOVE INTO AN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

EXPECTING SOME MORNING CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHWARD
MOVING MCS FROM NORTHERN MISSOURI. WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION TO WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENDS UP TODAY AS IT WILL
LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
AS WILL A SLOWLY EASTWARD MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY. BEST FOCUS FOR ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WILL BE WITH BETTER SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS. FORECAST
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A BIT WEAKER FURTHER SOUTH AND PRIMARY SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NORTHERN CWA TODAY.

NIGHTTIME CONVECTION WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WITH THE MAIN WAVE KICKING THROUGH WITH THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
EACH OF THESES WAVES COULD BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE
AREA...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.7 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONTINUOUS WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN
BETWEEN EACH OF THE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER...CURRENT FORECAST OF
ROUGHLY 0.75 TO 1.3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS EXPECTED COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WITH ALL OF THE RAINFALL WE RECEIVED DURING THE SPRING.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE AREA...HOWEVER
GULF MOISTURE WILL BE RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION BY THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG TAFS...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT KJLN AND KSGF
EARLY...BUT ANYTHING OTHER THAN VFR CAT CONDITIONS WOULD BE THE
EXCEPTION RATHER THAN THE RULE AT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSTMS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER
THE PLAINS SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HARD TO PINPOINT
WHEN/WHERE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR...BUT IN GENERAL BELIEVE KJLN WILL
HAVE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP THAN OTHER SITES AFTER 21Z. HAVE
PUT IN PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL SITES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE...GAGAN
SYNOPSIS...LINDENBERG
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...DSA