Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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652
FXUS63 KSGF 220454
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1154 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Excessive heat continues across the area Today with the most
oppressive heat across SE Kansas into Western and Central
Missouri where temps are in the upper 90s. Locations further east
along the Ozark Plateau are being saved by mixing and therefore
less humidity however its still hot. A few afternoon cumulus will
continue but will wane after sunset. Southwest winds were gusty
in spots and this will also continue this afternoon and tomorrow.
Mild overnight Tonight with lows in the middle to upper 70s.

Saturday will likely feature the hottest day of the Summer with
the ridge axis directly over us and a 850mb thermal ridge edging
in. Highs will likely approach 100 in several locations. Did not
adjust heat headlines since indicies are panning out well
especially with the Ozark Plateau mixing/drying. Locations in the
Heat Advisory area will see Heat Indicies between 100-105 with the
Heat Warning area in the 105-110 range. Regardless of the
headlines, the message is the same, it will be hot.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

A shortwave and front will move south into the area overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning. Scattered showers and storms look
possible with this setup. This would be a welcoming rainfall to
the area. There are questions as to the speed of the front and any
lingering precip during the day Sunday. If clouds and rain last
then this would keep temps/heat down. If clouds and rain are more
scattered, and also any moisture pooling would allow for higher
temps and heat indicies. This would require an extension to the
heat headlines. This is more of a short term challenge at this
point but confidence is slowing increasing that at least a Heat
Advisory will be needed for portions of the area Sunday.

The front will either wash out or remain just south of the area
Monday and Tuesday. The area will be in northwest flow and with a
front in the area will need to watch for a few system to affect
the area during this time. Models do show the ridge building back
in by mid to late week and excessive heat looks to return during
this time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR. Conditions will be similar to the last
few days. Hot daytime temperatures with south to southwest winds.
Some moderate gusts will be possible with daytime/convective
heating after 15z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ070-071-079>083-
     089>092-094>098-101>106.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ055>058-
     066>069-077-078-088-093.

KS...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...DSA



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