Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271955
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

Very little change to the going forecast this afternoon, with
excessive heat expected to continue through mid week, before some
relief arrives with the approach of a cold front.

Starting out this afternoon, isolated thunderstorms have again
developed over the eastern Ozarks, where large scale subsidence
associated with the upper ridge doesn`t appear to be quite strong
enough to squash all updrafts.  This convection should remain fairly
isolated, and is expected to dissipate with sunset this evening.

Elsewhere, heat indices have again risen to between 100 and 110 this
afternoon, and will likely warm another couple of degrees by late
afternoon.  A very similar scenario is expected for Tuesday, with
highs again in the mid to upper 90s, with mid 70s dewpoints
producing heat indices between 103 and 110.  Since tomorrow will be
at least the third day in a row of solid advisory heat, will go
ahead and upgrade to an Excessive Heat Warning for the current
Advisory area, and an extension of the Warning where one is already
out.  While this the extension is really for tomorrow`s heat, will
make the upgrade this afternoon and continue it through tomorrow
evening for simplicity`s sake.  In the end, the message is that is
is hot, with significant risk of heat related illness if proper
precautions are not taken.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

By Wednesday, a stout shortwave currently moving across the northern
Rockies will continue east into the Great Lakes, helping to flatten
the upper level ridge and allow a cold front to move south through
the area.  Temperatures on Wednesday will still be warm, though some
increase in cloud cover should keep readings a bit lower, especially
over central Missouri.  Precipitation chances appear rather low with
this front, given fairly weak lift and an absence of good upper
level support.

Cooler, and perhaps more notably, much drier air is then expected
to build into the area Wednesday night, allowing lows to drop into
the mid 60s for the first time in some time.  Highs on Thursday and
Friday then look to be around normal for this time of year--upper
80s to around 90--but with dewpoints in the low 60s, it should feel
MUCH more comfortable than it has for the last week or two.

Temperatures should remain around seasonal averages through the
weekend, as the upper ridge is shunted back to the west and weak
northwest flow takes hold aloft. Right now, it appears that dewpoints
will remain low enough to preclude additional heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Any
isolated showers or storms should stay east of the TAF sites this
afternoon. Winds will remain light out of the south to southwest.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ056>058-068>071-
     079>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055-
     066-067-077-078-088-093-101.

KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 8 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
     097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Burchfield





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