Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 141723
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1123 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

...FORECAST AND 18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Light to occasionally moderate snow continues across the area late
this morning. Heaviest band has shifted generally south of
Interstate 44. Roads are still partly to mostly covered in many
areas and high res models show the snow continuing a few more
hours so with this in mind will likely extend the Winter Weather
Advisory for parts of the area a few hours into the afternoon.
Highs will struggle to reach freezing but they will come close
across our west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

An upper level shortwave trough is currently diving south across
the central Plains early this morning. Snow has developed ahead of
this feature. Light snow has spread into the western portions of
the forecast area already this morning, but much of the
accumulating snow remains northwest of the area as of 3 am. KDOT
has reported that the snow is already accumulating on roads.

The vort max with the short wave and the area of snow will
continue to spread southeast across the area this morning. With
the recent cold weather snow should accumulate as it falls. This
will lead to most locations at least receiving a dusting of snow.
There will be a band that spreads southeast from east central
Kansas into southern Missouri that is capable of producing around
one inch of snow with localized amounts of up to two inches
possible this morning within this band. Light snow or flurries
will linger across the eastern Ozarks into this afternoon, but
amounts will be light with little accumulations.

Another upper level low will approach the region Monday morning.
Snow will develop again across the Ozarks, with another dusting
to one inch mainly north of Highway 60. The snow should weaken as
it spreads into far southern Missouri by Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Gusty northerly winds and a very cold air mass will spread into
the area behind the trough Monday night into Tuesday. Lows Monday
night into Tuesday morning will drop to near zero with wind
chills of -20 to -10 degrees. A Wind Chill Advisory will likely
be needed. Highs on Tuesday will only warm into the teens, as lows
again drop to near zero Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Winds will not be as strong Tuesday night, but wind chills will
start be able to drop to -10 to zero. Highs on Wednesday will warm
into the 20s.

An upper level ridge and warmer conditions will spread over the
area late in the week into next weekend with highs in the 40s and
even 50s are expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2018

Band of snow will continue for the first part of the TAF period
with low vis and reduced ceilings at times. BBG will expedience
most of this. Vis and ceilings should improve to VFR for late
afternoon and the the first part of the overnight hours. Low level
wind shear will develop overnight ahead of a approaching cold
front. Winds will remain out of the south and then southwest late
tonight. Another band of snow will move in similar times to today
reducing vis and ceilings to IFR at times.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Burchfield



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