Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 070844

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SPRINGFIELD MO
344 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0330 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2015

Fog is the main concern early today. The visibility dropped to
less than a mile briefly here at the office with shallow
radiation/ground cooling fog. Clouds over parts of the cwfa should
limit fog development, but where it stays clear, some dense fog is
obviously possible/likely. Will watch trends for a possible fog
advisory for the morning commute. So far we have not seen sustained
or widespread very low visibility.

Otherwise, the weather looks quiet with a sfc ridge of high
pressure beginning to shifting off to the east late tonight. Fog
will again be a concern for tonight, mainly for the southern and
eastern cwfa where sfc/low level winds will be somewhat weaker
closer to the exiting sfc ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 0330 AM CDT WED OCT 07 2015

No major changes to the forecast other than some minor timing

The upper level ridge over the area will weaken and shift off to
the east as a shortwave and associated cold front approach from
the west. Light sw sfc winds will boost temperatures Thursday
afternoon with low 80s common for afternoon high temperatures.

Timing may be slightly slower than previous guidance, but there
is good general agreement for a cold frontal passage Thursday
night. Most of the rain will be close to and behind the front with
some rain lingering into Friday, especially over the southern-
southeast cwfa. Severe storms are not expected given modest
instability. General rainfall amounts will be relatively light as

Sfc high pressure will quickly move in behind the front with
chilly temperatures by Friday night and early Saturday. Upper
level ridging will shift east into the area over the weekend and
associated sfc high pressure will move off to the east, so expect
a quick warming trend Saturday into Sunday.

Another shortwave and cold front will move through the area late
Sunday night/early Monday. A lack of deep moisture return will
greatly limit or preclude rain chances. Highs will be back up to
the low 80s in many areas for Sunday, well above normal for
early-mid October.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT TUE OCT 06 2015

Light winds and mostly clear skies will lead to fog development
tonight over portions of southern Missouri. The best potential for
fog will be at Branson and Springfield. A few mid level clouds
will limit the fog potential somewhat at Joplin. In summary, local
IFR visibilities with brief reductions to LIFR are expected across
southern Missouri into early Wednesday morning.

The fog will then lift starting around mid-morning on Wednesday
with MVFR ceilings persisting across portions of southern Missouri
through the remainder of the morning. VFR is then expected
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Winds will be light and variable through Wednesday evening.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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