Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291131 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

A very active weather pattern looks to continue for a few more days
across the region, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms through
Saturday.  Thankfully, confidence is increasing in a few dry days
late this weekend into early next workweek.

Starting out this morning, yet another area of elevated convection
is developing across northern Oklahoma and eastern Kansas, as a
relatively weak low level jet overspreads a 925-850 MB baroclinic
zone just southwest of the CWA.  Convection will continue to blossom
over this area through sunrise, lifting north and east with time. No
widespread severe weather is expected with this activity, though
periods of heavy rain and frequent lightning will be likely with any
thunderstorms.

Convection is then expected to expand in coverage through much of
the day today, with the approach of a few pieces of shortwave
energy currently to our west and southwest.  This increased upper
level support should result in fairly widespread showers and
thunderstorms through the day today.  Convection is then expected to
continue tonight, with weak height falls continuing to overspread
the region, along with the approach of a frontal boundary from the
northwest.  While a few isolated severe thunderstorms aren`t
entirely out of the question today, the overall threat appears
rather low.  Of more concern will be multiple rounds of heavy rain
given relatively saturated soils.  Will continue to coordinate an
expansion of the Flash Flood Watch with surrounding offices; while
exact counties haven`t quite been worked out yet, some expansion to
the east should be expected.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

The aforementioned front looks to make slow progress into the
forecast area through the day Saturday, likely resulting in a slow
end to the rain from the northwest to the southeast during the
latter portion of the day.

That front should then be to our south by Sunday morning, resulting
in what is looking like a rather nice day, with cool temperatures
and lower dewpoints building into the area. Highs on Sunday may
struggle to reach 70 degrees in a few locations.

Warmer temperatures and more seasonable humidity will begin to
return the area during the middle of next week, but right now, it
appears that increasing heights aloft may keep widespread
precipitation chances at bay.  That will be a welcomed opportunity
to allow things to dry out a bit.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 631 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

Rather unsettled period of weather expected for the next 24-36
hours across the region. Primary concern today will be the
increase in shower and storm activity. This will gradually result
in MVFR cig/vis, dropping to low end MVFR late this afternoon and
then IFR later on tonight. While there will be some break in the
shower/storm activity from time to time, pinpointing these breaks
is elusive.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR MOZ066-068>070-
     077>082-088>098-101>106.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan





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