Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 200535 AAA
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1135 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

...06z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

An upper low centered over central KS will move northeast with a
trailing shortwave moving through our area. The bulk of the warm
sector/warm air advection precipitation will affect areas east and
southeast of the cwfa, but some pockets of light rain along
with widespread low stratus/fog/drizzle will hang back over the
area tonight and early Friday. Dense fog is a good bet (already
1/4sm at KUNO). Short term guidance hits areas southeast of the
plateau (south central MO) hardest. A fog advisory is a good bet,
but coordination is still pending.

In the wake of the passage of the shortwave, guidance warms us up
nicely on Friday. This will be tied to how fast the stratus/fog can
clear. Progged soundings from the GFS keep stratus and KSGF before
clearing. Even just partial sunshine should warm us well into the
50s and lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Fri night-Saturday: Another upper level shortwave will take a
similar path to the one over our region now, moving from western
KS late Fri northeast into western IA by Sat morning. Deeper low
level moisture will be on our eastern cwfa border and points east
during this time, so really just looking at unseasonably warm and
dry weather.

Sat night-Sunday: There is pretty good agreement with another
shortwave moving east into the Arklatex region by 12z/6am Sunday.
Most guidance has the northern extent of rain moving through the
southern cwfa. Could be a few embedded thunderstorms but the more
active convective weather will stay off to our south.

Sunday night-Mon: Quiet and mild with an upper level ridge and
associated sfc ridge moving through. Can`t rule out some late
night shallow fog with light sfc winds.

Tue-Thu: An active/progressive pattern will continue with fair
agreement on another system/sfc low moving through Tue. Limited
moisture return will keep weather related impacts limited/nil
with low or limited precip chances. Colder, but fairly normal
temperatures for January are then expected Wed-Thu with dry
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1129 PM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

Expect a bounce back and forth of IFR and MVFR conditions Tonight
at the TAF sites as clouds/fog move through. Restricted
visibilities from fog will continue off and on all night and into
the morning hours primarily at the SGF and BBG TAF sites. Dense
fog is possible at times. Confidence in dense fog is lower at JLN.
Ceilings will improve to VFR generally after 18z as the storm
system exits the region. Winds will remain light during the TAF
period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MOZ055>058-067>071-
     078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for MOZ066-077-088-093-
     101.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Burchfield



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