Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 241142
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
542 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Precipitation was exiting the Ozarks this morning leaving behind
rainfall amounts ranging from 0.50 to 1.25 inches across the
region. We even had a few thunderstorms yesterday evening that
created some wind damage near Pierce City.
Northwest winds could be a little breezy today, with gusts up to
30 mph, particularly in areas near the Kansas and Missouri border.
Otherwise expected a dry conditions with highs ranging from the
lower 40s to the lower 50s. The warmer temperatures will occur in
far southwest Missouri.
Temperatures will drop well below freezing tonight as another shot
of Canadian air spread across the region. Look for overnight lows
falling into the middle 20s in most locations.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
An extended period of dry weather is forecasted through the entire
work week and upcoming weekend.
Deep northwest flow will become established across most of the
United States. This pattern will stick for several days, shutting
down the Gulf of Mexico.
We could see a couple of frontal passages this week. This first
one occurring on Wednesday, and another late in the weekend.
Ultimately temperatures will be slightly below normal this week,
with readings warming into the 40s on an afternoon basis. Lows
will range from the 20s to the 30s.
Beyond our seven day forecast, a major pattern change is progged
by both the operational GFS and ECMWF models. Southwest flow
evolves bringing an unseasonable amount of moisture and warmth
back into the Ozarks. This could set the stage for some active
weather about 9 to 10 days from now. Much could change in the
models, but it`s something to monitor with time.
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 535 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Low pressure over the Great Lakes
will continue to move northeast. Gusty west winds will continue
with a bit of an uptick in gusts with some daytime heating/mixing.
Winds will diminish toward sunset as the pressure gradient relaxes
and the lower atmosphere/boundary layer decouples. Some
stratocumulus may affect the area during the day (16z-23z) with
the best chances for ceilings at KSGF, but will keep tafs vfr with
no ceilings for now.