Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 172043

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
Issued by National Weather Service St Louis MO
343 PM CDT MON OCT 17 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

It has been an unseasonably warm and windy day across the region.
This evening looks to remain rather windy and quite mild. Winds
should then diminish and veer from the late evening into the
overnight hours as the pressure gradient relaxes with the approach
of the cold front, with the cold front near a central MO far
southeast KS axis by 12z Tuesday. The air mass is currently only
weakly unstable and very capped owing to very warm air aloft and
shallow moisture. There will be a gradual increase in moisture
overnight and also mid level cooling, however even with the front
entering the area in the early morning hours, I don`t see any
great signals for development along the front. If anything there
could be some sprinkles late.

The chance of precipitation will increase some on Tuesday as the
cold front continues to ooze southeastward. Mid level temperatures
will continue to cool and this will allow for improved instability
compared to today along with little if any capping by afternoon.
Given the frontal convergence, there certainly is enough to merit
slight chance pops. The front and clouds will put an end to the
record-ish temps of today, however the temps will remain above

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A stormy and wet period appears to be in the offing early. The
models diverge some on the exact position of the front Tuesday
night into Wednesday, however the general idea is the front will
continue to ooze southeast on Tuesday night and stall. The front
will then waver back northward some on Wednesday with the approach
of the upstream upper trof and migration of a decent surface low
along the boundary. These same factors along with increasing low
level forcing via a southwesterly LLJ and ample instability will
support increasing chances and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/night both along and north of
the front into the cool sector. The cold front will push through
the area Wednesday night will cooler air invading the region.
While the forecast for Thursday is currently dry, there is the
possibility at least during the morning we may need to eventually
introduce some pops as the digging shortwave remains upstream.

Cool but near average weather will persist on Friday. The pattern
aloft will deamplify some during the weekend into early next week
as the upper trof moves into the western Atlantic. This will bring
a return to a warm advection regime by Sunday and moderating


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

VFR conditions with gusty southwest winds will continue for the
next 0-6 hours at all three TAF sites. Gusts up to 35kts during
the afternoon are expected to diminish to around 15-25kts after
sunset, but if this diminishment does not occur, then there will
be a 4-6 hour window where LLWS becomes a concern due to the
strong winds aloft. Expect a wind shift at the surface after
18/12z when a cold front moves through the region. The front is
expected to stall across the region near the end of or just
beyond the valid TAF period. Depending on where the front stalls,
the winds at KBBG may become light/variable invof the stalled
front rather than W/NW after fropa.


Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

A much warmer air mass will spread over the area to end the
weekend to start early next week. Below are the record highs
and also record warm lows for Today (October 17th) and Tuesday
October 18th.

Record Highs:

October 17th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     89              1964
Joplin          88              1964
Vichy/Rolla     89              1950
West Plains     88              1953

October 18th:

City            Record High     Year

Springfield     87              2005
Joplin          90              2005
Vichy/Rolla     86              1953
West Plains     89              1953

Record Warm Lows:

October 17th:

City          Record Warm Low  Year

Springfield     63              1971
Joplin          65              1994
Vichy/Rolla     63              1998
West Plains     65              1998

October 18th:

City          Record Warm Low   Year

Springfield     65              1971
Joplin          64              1985
Vichy/Rolla     63              1971


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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