Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 150854

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
254 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

A sfc front extends form western IA to the Flint Hills in KS. Low
level moisture advection has increased and this coupled with lift
with an approaching shortwave over the Plains has allowed showers
to increase in coverage over the past couple of hours. Elevated
mucape of 500-600 j/kg will support some lightning activity at
times late tonight into this morning as the front sweeps through
quickly early today. Moderately gusty post frontal winds will
diminish late today/tonight as a sfc ridge of high pressure moves
in from the west.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Thursday-Friday: Sfc high pressure will slip off to the east as
winds veer to the southeast then eventually the south. Another
front will move into the High Plains and south winds will become
gusty on Friday as the pressure gradient tightens. Low level
moisture will move back to the north quickly Thu night from OK
into eastern KS, and this moisture will spread east into MO Fri.
Stratus will spread into the area underneath and elevated mixed
layer/cap, and could see some very light precip Friday but not
much. Will need to watch sfc wind speed/gusts Friday for a
possible advisory for some areas, especially the western cwfa, but
cloud cover may limit gust strength potential.

Friday Night-Saturday: The next sfc front will move through late
Fri night and early Sat, reaching near the I-44 corridor by
12z/7am Sat. Most model guidance limits rain potential with the
front up until that time owing to the capping inversion. Lift
near the front will start to increase late Fri night as a
trailing shortwave start accelerate eastward into the Plains and
Midwest, but for the most part the better rain amounts look to
occur east and southeast of our cwfa. Some chance for thunder will
occur as the front exits, but weak instability will greatly limit
chances. Gusty post frontal west-northwest winds will occur Sat
before diminishing Sat night. Temperatures may drop somewhat
during the day Sat behind the front.

Sunday-Tuesday: A very dry air mass with sfc high pressure will
move into MO and the southern Plains Sunday. Gusty, dry s-sw
winds will return Mon as the sfc high shifts south and east. By
Tue, guidance timing differences exist concerning the timing of
the next front. In any case, moisture return looks limited with
small chances for rain at best.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1108 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Showers and some thunderstorms will be possible overnight into
Wednesday across the area ahead of a cold front which will sweep
southeast through the area Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear
will be strong as the low level jet sets up out of the southwest
overnight. The stratus has cleared out from earlier, but will
likely see a return overnight and especially along and just behind
the frontal boundary on Wednesday. VFR conditions will become
mostly MVFR, but some IFR will be possible as the stratus builds




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