Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 122035
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
235 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Quiet weather conditions are expected for tonight and Tuesday as
surface high pressure slides off to our east. We will see some
increase in high level clouds tonight. These clouds along with a
steady east wind will make overnight lows rather tricky. We have
elected to go on the cool side of guidance given the easterly
component of winds off of that high. We did not want to go with
the "coldest" guidance (such as the MET) as its dew points seem
erroneously low.

We will still have some cloud cover to deal with on Tuesday.
However, warm air advection will commence as winds turn around and
increase out of the south. High temperatures over most areas
should warm into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 143 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Low level moisture advection and isentropic upglide will then
bring increasing chances for showers later Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. It still appears that enough instability may be
present for a low-end threat for thunderstorms across south-
central Missouri.

Spring-like temperatures are expected from Wednesday into Thursday
as brisk and gusty south to southwest winds continue to advect in
warmer air and moisture. High temperatures in the 60s are still
expected for both days, with several locations pushing the 70
degree mark on Thursday.

Models then continue to indicate a strong cold front pushing
southeast through the region Thursday night as upper level energy
dives southeast across the northern and central Plains. Showers
and perhaps some thunderstorms appear likely with the frontal
passage, especially along and south of the Interstate 44 corridor
where moisture quality will be better.

Brisk north winds behind the front will then quickly usher in a
much colder airmass later Thursday night and Friday morning. We
could see a quick transition from rain to light snow. However,
this front and system continue to look very progressive. Thus, any
snow accumulations would be minor at best.

After a brief stretch of quiet weather later Friday and Saturday,
global models then indicate a southwesterly flow aloft returning
from late this weekend into early next week. We may therefore see
mild temperatures quickly return along with another system rolling
through the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1100 AM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Some mid level
moisture will increase from the southwest late tonight into
Tuesday morning. Surface winds will become more southeasterly
through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Lindenberg



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