Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 202310

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

The departing weak upper level wave that brought cloudy skies and
rain showers to the Ozarks today will exit to the northeast of
the region this evening. The system was leaving behind some
moisture from the rainfall as an area of high pressure moves over
the region on the eastern edge of an upper level ridge.

The high pressure will bring light to calm winds and clearing
skies to the Ozarks overnight. Temperatures will also fall into
the the upper 40s to lower 50s. This combination of residual moisture,
light winds, clearing skies and cool temps will bring the
potential for fog. Current expectations are for fog to develop
around midnight and continue through sunrise Saturday morning.
Will need to monitor for the development of dense fog as there are
some indications the visibilities could fall below a half to quarter
mile at times for some areas.

The fog will dissipate through the morning hours leaving the
Ozarks under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies for the remainder
of the day as temperatures climb into the middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the area Saturday
night and Sunday. There will be a very slight chance for
thunderstorms late Saturday night and early Sunday across the far
western CWA, if convection can manage to form over Kansas Saturday
night. Anything that does develop, however, should quickly
dissipate after sunrise as the LLJ weakens. Temperatures should
warm to around 80 on Sunday, with partly cloudy skies.

Additional scattered convection may develop across Kansas on the
nose of the LLJ Sunday night, which could then eventually affect
the western half or so of the forecast area Monday, aided by a
weak upper level wave moving through the area in southwest flow.
It remains questionable just how long convection will linger after
the LLJ starts to weaken, given what should be a rather strong
layer of inhibition for surface based parcels.

Monday night into Tuesday, a much warmer and more humid airmass is
expected to build into the area, as the upper level ridging moves
east and is replaced by broad southwest flow aloft, and southerly
winds at the surface.

Steep lapse rates aloft associated with an elevated mixed layer
will combine with dewpoints in the upper 60s and low 70s produce
moderate to high levels of instability. However, the EML will also
result in strong capping over the area, which will make
thunderstorm potential a challenging and low confidence forecast
for much of next week.

From Monday night through Wednesday, it appears that a nearly
stationary front will stretch across central Kansas, meeting a dry
line just west of I-35 in Oklahoma. These boundaries should be
the primary focus for convection on an afternoon basis, with
moderate shear and high to extreme instability over the Central
and Southern Plains. Anything that the SGF forecast area sees on
these days will likely be from convection that is able to move
east/northeast enough to affect the area. This would largely be a
mesoscale/short term forecast challenge, and thus confidence is
low in the particular details at this juncture.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, there is some indication that a
slightly more organized shortwave may eject east over the Southern
Plains, nudging the surface boundaries closer to the Ozarks. This
wave would also likely have the affect of decreasing the strength
of the cap aloft; both of these things would result in increased
chances for thunderstorms, some of which would likely be strong
or severe given the expected environment.

Right now, it looks like any severe thunderstorms that form next
week would potentially be capable of producing all forms of severe
weather. However, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest that very
large hail could be a particular concern. In addition, multiple
rounds of rain could pose a flood threat by mid week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri May 20 2016

Have been seeing some breaks in the overcast sky over the last few
hours on satellite and a few of the ceilings have started to lift
at observation sites. Should continue to see the clouds break up
over the final couple hours of sunlight here. With a light and
variable wind tonight and clearing sky, we are still expecting
some fog to develop after around 06z. Some areas may become dense
to around 1 mile in visibility and we have that going through
around 14z.


.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Lindenberg is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.