Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 141722

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Another unseasonably warm day is in store as southerly winds
increase ahead of an approaching front. Highs will again climb
well into the 80s.

A front will remain nearly stalled much of today from western
Oklahoma into northwestern Missouri. Expect convection to develop
along the front during the day as a potent upper level trough
approaches from the west and the environment becomes more

By late afternoon an axis of moderate instability will stretch
from northern Oklahoma into western Missouri. Meanwhile deep
layer shear and synoptic scale lift will be on the increase.

Expect strong to locally severe convection to develop within this
corridor by late afternoon into the evening. This activity will
congeal into a squall line that will surge southeastward into
southern and central Missouri this evening and into the south
central Missouri during the overnight hours.

There will be at least a limited risk for severe weather tonight
generally northwest of a Branson to Salem line with the greatest
risk northwest of a Joplin to Eldon line this evening. Damaging
straight line winds will be the primary concern.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The cold front and associated showers will push rapidly off to the
southeast Sunday morning ushering in a much cooler airmass.
Temperatures will remain generally in the 50s Sunday.

The cooler weather will persist into early next week before a
warming trend returns heading into the middle and later part of
next week. Dry weather will prevail next week with the next chance
of rain not arriving until next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with gusty south to southwest winds at the surface this
afternoon and early evening.

By late this evening and through tonight, pilots will need to
monitor radar trends as showers and thunderstorms are expected to
become widespread across the Ozarks Region.

This activity tonight could bring flight conditions down into the
IFR or MVFR ranges if thunderstorms directly impact an airfield.

A cold front will swing through the region, shifting surface winds
to the northwest by early Sunday morning.

Safe Travels.




LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Cramer is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.