Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 172349
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
549 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A large area of scattered sleet, snow, and rain showers have
developed this afternoon from southern Kansas and Oklahoma, east
into southern Missouri. This activity has developed in response to
increasing synoptic scale lift ahead of an approaching short wave
trough. While we have gotten some reports of brief sleet
accumulation on road surfaces, roadways have largely remained wet.

As that trough pushes out of the Texas Panhandle region and into
Oklahoma this evening, we expect a large shield of steadier (versus
showery) precipitation to develop and move out of northeastern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri. Evidence of this shield
is already present from the Oklahoma City area down towards
McAlester, Oklahoma. We believe that this precipitation will be
heavier in nature as deep tropospheric ascent and weak instability
will be present. While the exact location of the rain/snow line is
still a tough call this evening, we believe that the presence of
heavier precipitation will maximize wet-bulbing and also transport
cooler air down towards the surface. This should result in moderate
snow/sleet transitioning to moderate snow as wet-bulbing finishes.
There is still the potential for some rain across far southern
Missouri, especially within areas of lighter precipitation.

This band of precipitation will then spread northeast across the
remainder of the Missouri Ozarks this evening as a snow or
snow/sleet mix. We are then expecting to at least temporarily lose
cloud ice as we head into later tonight and Thursday. This will
result in areas of drizzle or freezing drizzle. A thin glaze of ice
will be possible...especially on elevated surfaces across central
Missouri.

Any organized precipitation threat (snow or rain) will then largely
come to an end across central Missouri Thursday morning. Drizzle
will remain possible throughout the day and into Thursday night.
Freezing drizzle will remain a concern both Thursday morning and
again late Thursday night across central Missouri.

As far as snow totals, areas near the Arkansas border can expect up
to around a half inch of snow with some sleet. 1-2" are expected
along and north of the Highway 60 corridor. We did insert an area of
2-3" amounts from Warsaw down to Bolivar...east towards Rolla and
Salem.

With all of that said, we expanded the Winter Weather Advisory to
include all of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeastern Kansas
given the expected snow/sleet accumulations, potential for freezing
drizzle, and expected impacts during the evening commute (especially
across southwestern Missouri and extreme southeastern Kansas). It is
possible that southern portions of the advisory may need to be
trimmed early depending on where the freezing drizzle threat
materializes later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

Precipitation chances will continue for Friday and Friday night as
our area, especially our southern counties, get grazed by moisture
around the northern periphery of a storm system tracking across the
northern Gulf Coast. Model guidance and forecast soundings continue
to keep temperatures pretty close to the freezing line on Friday
over our northern counties while remaining above freezing through
the day on Friday over the rest of the area. By Friday night, we
will bring a rain/snow mix to all areas as colder air advects into
the region.

Expect cool and dry conditions through Saturday with slightly warmer
temps on Sunday as winds shift to the south ahead of the next storm
system developing over the northern plains. Temperatures should
remain warm enough to keep precip all liquid ahead of an approaching
cold front from late Sunday night through Monday night. Then we
could see a change over to snow late Monday night and Tuesday as a
cold front pushes across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports will
be dealing with deteriorating flight conditions over the next 24
hours.

A storm system has arrived, and is currently producing a large
shield of light rain with embedded sleet. Ceilings will continue
to fall into the MVFR and IFR category this evening and tonight.

Visibilities will also fall in category as the rain becomes
heavier. There is a chance for some snow, although the predominate
precipitation type will likely be rain and drizzle.

The drizzle will become the heaviest tonight into Thursday morning
as we begin to lose cloud ice.

It appears as though drizzle and low cloud cover will continue
through most of Thursday`s day period.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 9 AM CST Thursday FOR KSZ073-097-
     101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Cramer






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