Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 291717
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1217 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

After scattered strong to severe storms impacted portions of the
Ozarks Sunday evening, today looks relatively quiet. A weak cold
front will clear the Missouri Ozarks this morning with a wind
shift to the northwest and a slightly drier low level air mass
advecting in. Highs today will range from the lower 80s across the
eastern Ozarks to the upper 80s across far southern Missouri and
along the I-49 corridor.

A weak upper level disturbance in a northwesterly flow aloft will
swing into northern and then central Missouri by early this
evening. There will be an outside shot for a rogue shower or
thunderstorm with this feature up towards Lake of the Ozarks later
this evening or overnight, but most (if not all) areas will remain
dry.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We will then get into an unsettled weather pattern starting around
midweek. The setup looks good for a mesoscale convective system
(MCS) to develop and slide southeast across the region Tuesday
night and Wednesday morning. Short wave energy will be diving
southeast across the Corn Belt with a low level jet overriding a
strong low level theta-e gradient. We are still not quite sure
where this MCS will track, but odds are highest along and east of
the Highway 65 corridor.

Global models then depict more MCS potential as we head into
Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with this threat
continuing into the 4th of July weekend. Afternoon thunderstorm
chances will be highly dependent on outflow boundaries and whether
or not the atmosphere can recover from any morning convection. We
will have to watch the hydro situation closely as MCSs tracking
over the same areas would certainly pose a flooding risk.
Temperatures from mid to late week will be dependent on convective
coverage and timing. Generally speaking, we are looking at near or
slightly below normal high temperatures and near normal low
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1208 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

We expect VFR conditions at all southwest MO airports for the next
24 hours as a relatively dry airmass spreads southward across the
Ozarks. Winds will remain northwesterly through the afternoon and
evening before gradually backing to southwest Tuesday morning.
There may be a rogue shower or storm over the region later this
afternoon as a weak disturbance drops southeastward from Iowa, but
think the better chances will be east of Springfield from 22Z -
03Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Terry








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