Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 210454
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

The front that dropped across the area today will stall just to
our south tonight and Friday while a series of upper level
disturbances track east.

Showers across southern Missouri will temporarily diminish this
evening. However showers and some thunder will develop overnight
north of the frontal boundary as a modest low level jet and
isentropic upglide develop.

Waves of showers with embedded thunderstorms will impact the
region Friday and Friday night with the heaviest rainfall
concentrated across far southern Missouri and extreme southeastern
Kansas. With recent rains the ground is nearly saturated and it
won`t take too much more rain to result in flooding concerns.

Total storm rainfall including Thursday through Saturday will
generally range from 2 to 4 inches with the highest amounts across
far southern Missouri where localized amounts up to 5 inches
could occur. This excessive rainfall could lead to flash flooding
as well as river flooding. Basins of most concern include the
Spring, Elk, James, While, Big Piney and Eleven Point.

The Flood Watch has expanded farther east to include all of
far southern Missouri.

Deeper and stronger convection will be possible Friday along the
Arkansas border closer to the front and axis of higher instability.
The risk of severe storms is low but will have to monitor for any
potential northward progress of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

A showery and chilly day is in store Saturday as the upper low
tracks across the region. Highs will likely not get out of the 40s
in most areas.

Dry weather and a warming trend will return by Sunday into next
week. More active weather could again return later next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1154 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2017

FOR THE KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Convection becoming more numerous
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma as low level jet begins to
strengthen. Expect convection to become more numerous over the
next 2 to 4 hours across southwest Missouri. Mainly showers
expected with embedded thunderstorms. Flight conditions will
deteriorate late tonight into early Friday. Expect ceilings to
drop into the MVFR and finally IFR categories after 12Z.
Visibilities will also drop to 3 to 5 miles, with some isolated 1
to 2 miles possible in the heavier rains. Expect widespread
showers with some thunderstorms to prevail through the entire TAF
period, with heavy rains likely.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ077>082-088>098-
     101>106.

KS...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Raberding



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