Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 260726
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
226 AM CDT Fri Sep 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 201 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

A strong hemispheric positive height anomaly will remain centered
over the Ohio Valley through tonight. This will keep a synoptic
scale cutoff low in place across northern Missouri and the Corn
Belt. The status quo will therefore continue for Missouri Ozarks
weather through early this weekend with highs near 80 and lows in
the 50s to around 60. There will be an outside shot for a sprinkle
here or there as weak mid-level instability and moisture work
through the region. However most areas will remain dry.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 201 AM CDT FRI SEP 26 2014

The hemispheric pattern will then begin to change from late this
weekend into early next week with that Ohio Valley anomaly
quickly weakening. That cutoff low will begin to open up and get
picked up by the westerlies...likely tracking southeast across
Missouri on Sunday. We could see an isolated shower or
thunderstorm across primarily south-central Missouri, but moisture
quality and capping strength remain question marks.

Meanwhile, medium range models continue to support an amplified
trough developing over the western United States this weekend and
then ejecting one piece of energy across the northern and central
Plains later Monday into Tuesday. As this happens, we will see a
gradual return of Gulf of Mexico moisture. Initial chances for
precipitation look pretty low given that the track of the energy
will be so far north and west of the region.

A better chance for precipitation may then emerge as we get later
into next week as models bring a more amplified trough into the
central United States. Temperatures will be slightly above normal
with highs generally in the lower 80s with lows in the middle 50s to
lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT THU SEP 25 2014

Pilots can expect a continuation of VFR conditions tonight and
Friday. Surface high pressure centered to our east will remain the
dominant weather feature providing a light southeast wind.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Foster





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