Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 250416
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1116 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Based on collaboration with Wichita, Topeka, and Kansas City, a
Heat Advisory has been posted for the Osage Plains Region.
Thinking is that Heat Indices may get close enough to 105 degrees
for an advisory in that region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)

Cooler temperatures and less humid weather was ongoing across the
Ozarks today. Easterly winds behind a cool front left us with
comfortable weather.

This drier airmass will have an influence on low temps tonight
with readings falling into the upper 50s in the eastern Ozarks.
Upper 60 degree lows are expected out toward Joplin and Pittsburg.

Warmer weather will begin tomorrow with highs in the low to middle
90s. A return of southerly winds combined with plenty of sunshine
will help the cause. These two factors will also come into play on
Saturday, with highs in the middle 90s. Heat indices will warm
into the 100s Saturday.

Little to no precipitation chances are in the forecast through
Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)

By Sunday a Canadian frontal system will approach and sweep
southward through southern Missouri. This feature will be forced
unusually south by an upper low that amplifies across the upper
midwest. This will allow for fantastic outdoor weather through
much of next work week.

There will be a 20-30 percent chances for showers and
thunderstorms as this system pushes through.

Models do not suggest much precipitation, however, I`m leary to
think that we all remain dry through this frontal passage. The
airmass should have ample moisture and instability to support
convection near the front on Sunday. Many locations could remain
dry, however, we do think some thunder will be possible.

Starting Monday, highs will warm into the lower 80s on an
afternoon basis through Thursday. Overnight lows will fall into
the 50s and 60s.

During next work week, there remains no identifiable signal for
good rain chances. There could be a couple of shortwaves that
migrate through the westerlies, but at this point, figuring out
when that happens is tough to pinpoint.

Hope everyone enjoys the cool weather next week. Have a good one !

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

Will see some surface wind gustiness at JLN on Friday during the
day as pressure gradient increases with the departing high to the
east and developing low to the west. VFR conditions are expected
through the period as an upper level ridge builds into the region.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR MOZ066-077-088.

KS...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 7 PM CDT Friday FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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