Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
FXUS63 KSGF 072150
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
350 PM CST Fri Mar 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 255 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
The main forecast concern will be the precipitation, precipitation
type, and temperatures for Saturday.
High clouds increased today over the region, but a nice south wind
brought mild temperatures to the area. Temperatures in the 60s
were common. Even areas which still have some snow cover were in
the lower 50s over south central MO.
A sfc front now to the west and northwest of the area will shift
into the northwest cwfa late this evening, then through all but
the far southeast cwfa by daybreak Saturday. Some guidance,
particularly high resolution guidance is producing some light qpf
behind the front over the northwest cwfa. Guidance is already
overdoing moisture return somewhat over the area and have only
modest faith in precip developing tonight, but will hold out the
possibility of some drizzle/very light rain overnight north of
Weak boundary layer winds and some actual limited moisture return
over the southern cwfa may allow some fog to develop along and
south of the MO Ozarks Plateau late tonight and will mention at
least patchy wording for now.
Better chances for rain/precip will occur Saturday. Cold air
advection and slight cooling below 800mb may support a mix or
changeover to wet snow over the northwest cwfa. Given the progged
sfc temperatures, we are next expecting much if any adverse travel
impacts, but some minor accumulation may occur on elevated or
grassy surfaces over southeast KS into west central MO.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
Some precip will linger Saturday evening. Again, will have to
watch trends with temperatures and the timing of precip with some
chances for a little bit of a change over to wet snow.
High pressure will move through the region Sunday then a couple of
days of south or southwest winds will boost temperatures well up
into the 60s or possibly low 70s Monday and Tuesday.
Another front will shift southeast through the area Tuesday night,
but there is still a persistent discrepancy between the GFS and
ECMWF concerning the placement/strength/timing of shortwave and
associated sfc low moving through the area Tue night/Wed. In
general the ECMWF remains stronger with this system with more
precip and a rain-snow transition. The GEM and GFS are less
impressive. Will continue to mention a chance of rain Tuesday
Thursday-Friday: Looks quiet with fairly seasonable temperatures.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014
VFR conditions will continue through this evening with increasing
high clouds. A cold front will then pass through southern Missouri
late tonight. Southerly winds ahead of the front will shift around
to the north. Ceilings will also lower with MVFR ceilings expected
behind the frontal boundary. There are some weather models
indicating IFR fog potential tonight across southern Missouri...
mainly around the Branson terminal. While we are not quite yet
ready to buy into IFR fog, we do feel there will be some light fog
around. We have therefore included TEMPO groups to cover this. A
weak low pressure system is then expected to spread light
precipitation into southern Missouri from Saturday morning into
Saturday afternoon. We have introduced PROB30 groups at Joplin and
Springfield to cover what would be light rain potential along with
MVFR visibilities late Saturday morning.