Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 091741

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1241 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

We will remain on the western periphery of surface high pressure
today. This will result in dry conditions and relatively light
easterly winds. Temperatures will be similar to what we saw on
Tuesday with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

Short wave energy will then begin to approach the region tonight
from the northern and central Plains. Isentropic upglide will
increase ahead of this feature resulting in increasing chances for
showers and thunderstorms over extreme southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri late tonight. Instability will be limited, thus
we are not looking at any kind of a severe weather threat.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

The threat for showers and thunderstorms will then continue into
Thursday as overnight activity slowly shifts east across the
region. Showers and thunderstorms will then remain possible into
Friday as higher amplitude short wave energy drives a front into
the region. The best chance for storms may come from Thursday
night into Friday morning across southeastern Kansas and
southwestern Missouri as models are signaling a fairly decent
setup for the development of a mesoscale convective system (MCS).

Chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend will then be
highly dependent on the eventual location of that front. The
synoptic scale pattern will continue to feature a west-northwest
flow aloft with embedded short wave energy. This will support the
continued development of nocturnal MCS activity. It is just a
matter of where this activity develops and tracks.

The big concern is the potential for heavy rainfall. At this time,
operational global models and the GFS ensemble indicate the
highest likelihood for heavy rainfall may occur from south-
central and southeastern Kansas into northeastern Oklahoma and
northwestern Arkansas. This may clip portions of far southwestern
Missouri. A swath of 3-6" rainfall amounts will be possible from
late tonight through the upcoming weekend in this corridor. The
eventual location of heaviest rainfall will be better ascertained
once we get a feel for the track of these MCSs.

Global models and long wave charts then indicate that the west-
northwest flow aloft will persist into early next work week.
Precipitation chances will therefore remain tied to that front. At
this point, indications are that the front may be south of the
Missouri Ozarks by that point.

Temperatures from late this week into early next week will
continue to be about 4-9 degrees below normal for this time of


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2017

For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFs: Generally VFR conditions are
expected at the TAF sites this afternoon through Thursday morning.
An isolated shower/storm is not out of the question this
afternoon/evening but coverage will be very limited with a low
chances of a TAF site being affected.

Mid level clouds should increase tonight into Thursday morning
ahead of an upper level disturbance but the better shower/storm
chances should occur just beyond this TAF period.

Winds will generally be out of the southeast this afternoon
becoming more southerly tonight.




SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.