Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290900
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
500 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015


.CURRENTLY...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND THE LOWER KEYS WERE
DETECTED BY THE RADAR WITH A TRACE BEING OBSERVED AT THE KEY WEST AIRPORT
AND OUR RAIN GAUGE IN THE BACKYARD. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
70S ACROSS THE KEYS WITH NEAR 80 IN THE MIDDLE KEYS.

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN CONUS KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR OUR AREA.
THESE WILL COME DOWN DURING THE WEEKEND AND UP TO 12 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A PATTERN AS WITNESSED
IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PATCHES
OF HUMIDITY IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING BY THE KEYS. SHOWERS FROM TIME TO
TIME AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT OUR
WATERS AND ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING ON THEIR LAST COUPLE OF RUNS AN AREA OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...MOVING NORTH ACROSS OUR
AREA FROM TUESDAY NIGHT ON. PWAT ABOVE AN INCH AND A HALF AND UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS WILL COME WITH IT AND REMAIN ACROSS THE KEYS THROUGH MOST
OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND PROBABLY INCREASE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
AS IT STILL COUPLE OF DAYS AWAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AND ARE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A BIT MORE
TODAY TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE EASTERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON TERMINALS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND
10 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1960...2.04 INCHES
OF RAIN WAS RECORDED IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD FOR
MAY 29 IN KEY WEST. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04

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