Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KKEY 230631
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
231 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
KBYX detects no precipitation echoes. Skies over the island chain are
clear. Winds over land are north to northeast near 15 mph. C-MAN
winds, on average, are north to northeast at 15 to 20 knots.
Temperatures are in the lower to mid 70s.
.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
An area of high pressure over the southeastern United States will
build southeastward down the Florida peninsula today through Monday.
This area of high pressure will be reinforced by a stronger high
pressure system over the north central United States Monday night and
Tuesday. The air mass currently over the Florida Keys may modify
enough by Monday night and Tuesday to support slight chance POPs.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Saturday)...
The aforementioned strong high pressure system should move eastward
across the northeastern United States Tuesday night through Thursday
night. An area of low pressure may develop over the Bahamas or
western Caribbean Sea late this week into the upcoming weekend.
Forecast confidence in this scenario is low at this time. The long
term portion of the forecast will feature windy conditions, with POPs
increasing to low chance category by Wednesday.
A small craft advisory is in effect for the coastal waters of the
Florida Straits today due to sustained north to northeast surface
winds near 20 knots. Small craft are urged to exercise caution on the
coastal waters of Florida Bay, the Gulf of Mexico, and Hawk Channel
today due to sustained north to northeast surface winds of 15 to 20
knots. A small craft advisory will likely be required for the coastal
waters of the Florida Straits tonight and Monday. A small craft
advisory may be required for the coastal waters of Florida Bay, the
Gulf of Mexico, and Hawk Channel tonight and Monday. A small craft
advisory will likely be required for all Keys coastal waters Monday
night through at least Thursday night.
Expect gentle north breezes overnight, with winds veering throughout
the 24 hour period. Fresh gusts nearing 20 kts are possible after 10z
as the boundary layer elongates, with gusts dropping off with the
diurnal change (00z). Otherwise, expect VFR and nearly clear skies at
both KEYW and KMTH.
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 2005, a large
waterspout passed within 3 to 4 miles of the west end of Key West.
This waterspout was embedded in an outer rainband of Hurricane Wilma.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West 80 72 82 74 / 0 - - 10
Marathon 81 72 82 74 / 0 - - 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ052>055-072>075.
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