Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 281848
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
248 PM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
Under mostly sunny skies and light south winds, temperatures are
ranging from the upper 80s to near 90 degrees along the island
communities. Meanwhile, local radars are void of any precipitation
echoes in our area. Surface wise, a large area of high pressure
is centered over the mid Atlantic states, with a ridge axis nosing
southward into the Florida peninsula. Winds across our coastal
waters vary from calm at Smith Shoal Light to southeast to south
at less than 10 knots.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday night)
Little change in forecast reasoning with light winds and moisture
limited below 700 mb for the next couple of days. Within this time
frame, wet cloud line genesis and possible outflow boundaries
emanating from our large surrounding land masses will be the
primary precipitation sources. Beginning Friday night and into
this weekend, even drier air will likely filter into our county
warning area. Subsequently, low chance pops will be retained for
the balance of this week with only isolated rain chances
beyond. See no reason to stray from high temperatures hovering
around 90, with overnight lows near 80 until winds freshen which
will keep low temperatures primarily in the lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
A low and mid level (below 700 mb) western Atlantic ridge axis
will remain anchored across the Sunshine State, resulting in a
gentle to occasional moderate easterly trajectory. With no
distinct low level undulation expected and only intermittent
pockets of higher moisture below 700 mb, 20 to 30 percent 12 hour
pops which coincide with MEX/ECE MOS guidance will be kept.
Outside of any heavy downpour, low temperatures will remain above
80 with afternoon highs around 90 degrees.

&&

.MARINE...
Light to gentle winds will predominate on Keys coastal waters
tonight and Thursday, before a modest increase overspreads our
entire marine district late Thursday night through Friday night.
With this subtle surge, an Exercise Caution Headline will likely
be required for at least the Straits of Florida and perhaps Hawk
Channel. Thereafter, gentle to moderate winds with the higher
winds expected on the waters south of the island chain are
anticipated for this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly east to southeast winds less than 10 knots are expected
through 29/18z at both the Key West and Marathon International
terminals. Low to mid level high pressure will cap any developing
towers, but scattered showers may develop in the afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1961, the daily record low temperature of 68 degrees was
recorded in Key West. Temperature records have been kept since
1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  81  89  82  89 / 30 30 30 30
Marathon  81  92  82  92 / 30 30 30 30

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...APA
Aviation/Nowcasts....BWC
Data Collection......Chesser

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