Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011436
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1036 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...A HEALTHY NOCTURNAL SURGE IN THE SOUTH-EASTERLIES
CONTRIBUTED TO THE MAINTENANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THIS MORNING. RECENT RADAR SCANS INDICATE A DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE COVERAGE. THE SURFACE WIND-FIELD RANGES FROM SOUTHERLY AT
PULASKI SHOAL...TO EAST SOUTHEAST AT MOLASSES REEF...ALL ARE BETWEEN 5
AND 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE UPPER 80S
UNDERNEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.SHORT TERM...THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING INDICATES ADEQUATE MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...ASIDE FROM A THIN DRY LAYER NEAR 500 MB.
COMBINE THIS ANALYSIS WITH THE MARITIME TONGUE WHICH HAS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND THE THERMODYNAMICS FOR AN AFTERNOON
CLOUD-LINE SEEM FAVORABLE. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MEAN LOW
LEVEL WIND VECTOR FROM 070 DEGREES AT 05 KNOTS FROM 2 TO 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. OUR CURRENT FORECAST PLACES RAIN CHANCES AT 50
PERCENT...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. WINDS WILL LIKELY FALL OFF A CLIFF
IN A FEW HOURS...SO WE HAVE TRIED TO PORTRAY THIS WITHIN THE CWF.

&&

.MARINE...MARINERS AND BOATERS CAN EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE JUST
NORTH OF THE KEYS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF CLOUD LINES ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER KEYS. BECAUSE OF
THIS TEMPORARY MVFR PERIODS RESULTING FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MARATHON TERMINAL AND LIKELY AT THE KEY WEST
TERMINAL. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AS VICINITY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCLUDED AFTER 17Z...AND A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 18Z FOR KEY WEST. OUTSIDE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....DEVANAS
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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