Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 300746
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
346 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The showers with embedded thunderstorms in the western portion of
the Keys service area has diminished in areal coverage over the past
several hours. Layered cloud cover is thinning along with the
showers. Winds are light, and if not variable, are favoring the
easterly direction. Temperatures are in the lower 80s along the Keys
island chain.

Weak but relatively broad high pressure across south Florida today
will ease eastward through late this evening and overnight. A weak
trough will extend from the southeast coast across north Florida and
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico through that time and further into
the weekend. A small pocket of relatively drier air will shift across
the Keys and surrounding waters today and tonight, but at least a
small chance of showers with embedded thunderstorms can not be ruled
out of the forecast. If anything, activity should favor the western
portion of the service area this morning as the lower flow settles
more uniformly from the east. A subtle but discernible wind surge may
refocus convective activity towards the island chain through the
afternoon.

Hurricane Matthew continues to strengthen in the east-central
Caribbean Sea. Matthew is expected to continue moving generally
westward today and tonight, and then turn northward south of eastern
Cuba later in the weekend. Forecast confidence remains low for early
next week due to the uncertainty regarding the path, intensity, and
structure of Matthew. And, it is still too early to determine what,
if any, impacts could occur in the Florida Keys through the first
half of the work week because of Matthew. Expect at least a chance of
showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. The late
periods of the forecast will remain heavily weighted toward
climatology.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect a light to gentle breeze favoring the northeast or easterly
direction for the next few periods with no advisory or cautionary
headlines anticipated for small craft. Forecast confidence remains
low for early next week due to the uncertainty regarding the path,
intensity, and structure of Hurricane Matthew, which is strengthening
currently in the east-central Caribbean Sea.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at both the KEYW and KMTH terminals
today, with light and variable winds early in the morning and from
the east by mid-morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
In 1963, Key West experienced its wettest September ever with 18.45"
of rain recorded. So far this month, only 8.03 inches have
accumulated in September at the Key West International Airport.
Rainfall records in Key West date back to 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  89  79  88  80 / 30 30 40 40
Marathon  90  79  89  79 / 30 30 40 40

&&

.KEY Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...04
Aviation/Nowcasts....KN
Data Collection......Fling

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