Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 011819
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
220 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE LOWER KEYS...AS WELL AS OVER NEARSHORE GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS. ELSEWHERE...KBYX DETECTS NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL IN THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE WIND FIELD
LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ISLAND CUMULUS CLOUD LINES TO BUILD
DIRECTLY OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS MAY INVADE
THE SERVICE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL IN THE VICINITY OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST SHOULD BE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHORT LIVED MVFR/IFR WILL BE AT KEY
WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INDICATE IN THE EYW TERMINAL FORECAST.
AFTER 00Z...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 230 DEGREES AT OR ABOUT 6 TO
8 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z...THEN BECOMING VARIABLE AT OR ABOUT 6 KNOTS OR
LESS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1943...2.50 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM
RAINFALL MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON OCTOBER 1ST...A RECORD WHICH STILL
STANDS 71 YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  81 88 79 88 / 30 40 30 20
MARATHON  79 89 79 89 / 30 40 30 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE/FIRE/CLIMATE/DIGITAL...BS
AVIATION/NOWCASTS....................FUTTERMAN
DATA ACQUISITION.....................CHESSER

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