Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 290815
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
415 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...POORLY ORGANIZED TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS JUST WEST OF
HAITI...RIDING WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPLY-STACKED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EASTERLY BREEZES HAVE FRESHENED THIS
MORNING...AVERAGING NEAR 15 KNOTS AT THE MARINE OBSERVATION
PLATFORMS. A ROUND OF EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COOLED
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 80 AT MOST ISLAND LOCATIONS. THE RADAR IS NOW
ECHO FREE...ASIDE FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CAY SAL BANK.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA (OR A WAVE-
LIKE VERSION) WILL SLIDE WEST ACROSS CUBA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE APPROACHES...A MOIST...CONFLUENT...AND MORE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE
WILL IMPINGE UPON THE FLORIDA KEYS. NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF
ERIKA WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF ENHANCERS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...CLOUD LINES...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ANDROS ISLAND. THE
AXIS OF ERIKA WILL REACH OUR AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING WITH
HER PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...RAIN CHANCES PEAK AT 70 PERCENT ON SUNDAY.
AS ERIKA MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...THE CONFLUENT
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT WILL RETAIN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN BEHIND ERIKA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. NO CHANGES NEEDED THROUGH LONG TERM.

&&

.MARINE...TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST INTO EASTERN
CUBA TODAY. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR ERIKA TAKES THE SYSTEM ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA...POSSIBLY REACHING THE FLORIDA STRAITS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...IF IT KEEPS ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MARINERS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA FOR
THE LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...AND A ROUND OR TWO OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME ACTIVITY. ASIDE FROM
CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED WEATHER...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO GENTLE OUT OF
THE EAST NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  91  79  88  79 / 50 60 70 60
MARATHON  93  79  89  79 / 50 60 70 60

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........CLR
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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