Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 141304
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
904 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
THE KBYX RADAR IS SHOWING JUST A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE 250
MILE SCAN THIS MORNING. GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WITH NEAR 5 KNOTS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN...AND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT THE C-MAN REPORTING STATIONS SURROUNDING THE KEYS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS KEPT IN CHECK BY THE MID
AND LOWER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE THE EASTERN SEABOARD FROM NEAR
BERMUDA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

.FORECAST...
WITH THE RIDGE...MENTIONED ABOVE...IN PLACE THERE IS AMPLE DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CLOUD LINES...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BY WEDNESDAY THE MID TO
LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL SINK FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE STRAITS WHILE
KEEPING THE CLOUD LINES SHALLOW AND UNEVENTFUL. WITH THIS IN MIND WE
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN AFTER WEDNESDAY. WOULD EXPECT WITH THE
LACK OF CLOUD COVER THAT TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 90 OR ABOVE
WHILE SLIGHTLY BETTER RADIATIONAL EFFECTS WILL OFFER SLIGHTLY COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS...NEAR 80...DUE TO THE DRY AIR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECTING GENTLE TO LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THE
PRELIMINARY LOOK AT THE MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SHOW A VERY WEAK
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE WITH HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH ARE
INGREDIENTS FOR CLOUD LINES. WITHIN THESE CLOUD LINES THERE WILL BE
THE PROPENSITY FOR DEVELOPING WATERSPOUTS DUE TO THE LACK OF WIND AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE VERTICAL PROFILE. KEEP A WATCHFUL EYE
ON THE SKY AND RADIO TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR UPDATES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SLACKENING WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD ALLOW CLOUD LINES TO
FORM ALONG THE KEYS BY LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH THE KEY WEST
AND MARATHON TERMINALS WITHIN THESE LINES...AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR
SEVERAL HOURS AT BOTH LOCATIONS FOR THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE HOURS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1956...THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
IN KEY WEST REACHED 95 DEGREES. THIS SET THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD FOR JULY 14 IN KEY WEST. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE
BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....04
DATA COLLECTION.......DEVANAS

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