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000
FXUS62 KKEY 221852
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
252 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
FROM THE KBYX RADAR WE FIND SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE KEYS AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. FROM T A
SPACE REFERENCE FRAME WE SEE A DECAYING BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND A BROAD CIRCULATION NEAR THE YUCATAN....WITH
THE KEYS SITTING BETWEEN. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NEAR
5 KNOTS AT THE ISLAND TERMINALS...AND NEAR 10 KNOTS AT THE C-MAN
STATIONS SURROUNDING THE ISLAND CHAIN. ALL LOCATIONS ARE EXPERIENCING
HIGHER GUSTS IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.FORECAST...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OTHER THAN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. IN ANY CASE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL PROVIDE THE LIFTING FOR THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM THE DEPRESSION TO THE SOUTHWEST. A MESO SCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE DRY TORTUGAS.
THE MCV WILL LIKELY BE THE LIFTING MECHANISM FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THIS TIED WITH A FAVORABLE VEERING WIND
PROFILE WOULD GIVE MORE SUPPORT FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HAVE 100 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW
IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND REMAIN
SOUTH OF CUBA THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL PROVIDE GOOD
VENTILATION DUE TO THE CO-LOCATION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
JET OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS. SO THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL
INCLUDE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS...AND AT TIMES
LOCALIZED HEADY DOWNPOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT EXPECT A RIDGE TO BUILD
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNTIED STATES...USHERING THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA. THIS RIDGING WILL TURN WINDS NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AND BE A HARBINGER OF DRIER AIR AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF COOL
AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH IN COMBINATION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE
NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE
THROUGH THE KEYS AREA ON SATURDAY...DRYING OUT THE ENVIRONMENT...AND
FRESHENING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON ALL KEYS WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
UNTIL 12Z/23RD...OCCASIONAL SUB-VFR EPISODES CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE
KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS...OTHERWISE...CEILINGS WILL VARY
BETWEEN 040-080. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS...NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS OF AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...2008...7.30 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SETTING THE DAILY RECORD
RAINFALL FOR KEY WEST ON OCTOBER TWENTY SECOND. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR
KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  74  82  74  82 / + 90 80 70
MARATHON  74  82  74  82 / + 90 80 70

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........BWC
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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