Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 271734
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2015

...18Z Aviation Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Weak high pressure was over the area early this morning with a
highly amplified upper level pattern across the CONUS. Missouri
is currently in between the deep low affecting the northeast with
an intense Winter storm and a high amplitude ridge from the
southern Plains into the northern Rockies.

The short term forecast will be affected by this ridge shifting
eastward over the next couple of days bringing well above normal
temperatures to the region. This will be the main focus in the
short term.

A storm system will enter the west coast late in the week and will
affect the area this weekend with increasing precipitation
chances...possibly of the Wintry type. This will be the main focus
in the long term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Upper level ridge will continue to shift eastward today and into
the Plains as surface high shifts east across the region. Will see
some low level warm advection, but this really kicks into gear
tonight into Wednesday ahead of an upper level shortwave tracking
into the Plains. This will send a cold front towards the region,
but will not push through the area until Wednesday night. Out
ahead of the front, especially on Wednesday, gusty south winds are
expected with strong southwest flow at 850 mb. MOS numbers seem a
bit low and have adjusted temperatures up slightly both
today/Wednesday from MOS numbers.

Front will push through on Wednesday night, however most of the
precipitation will be concentrated closer to the low which will be
well to the northeast of us.  Will keep things dry for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 223 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

Main effect of the front will be the sharp cooldown from what we
will experience Today/Wednesday. Cold air will move back into the
area on Thursday with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s
for the rest of the week into the weekend.

A storm system will move across the southern Rockies and Plains
late in the week into the weekend, bringing a surface low to our
south Saturday night into Sunday. Both ECMWF/GFS show this, but
differ slightly on thermal profiles which would have implications
on precipitation type over the weekend. ECMWF is more bullish on
snow. For now will go with rain/snow in grids and products.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours, with the
only aviation weather concern LLWS tonight and gusty surface winds
tomorrow. The pressure gradient will increase late tonight across
the region, with LLWS developing as a low level jet develops.
Those stronger winds will then mix down to the surface starting
early to mid morning tomorrow, with southerly surface winds/gusts
increasing into the afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Boxell





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