Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 311141 AAA
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
641 AM CDT Fri Oct 31 2014

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

North winds are already beginning to increase this morning across the
region, as the coldest airmass of the season so far starts to move
south into the area.  Temperatures will continue to fall through the
remainder of the morning.  By afternoon, some locations may see enough sun
to (temporarily) halt the fall, or perhaps even warm a degree or
two, though anything above the mid 40s would be quite optimistic.
For most of the area, daily highs have already been met.

As cloud cover clears and the core of the Canadian surface high
settles south into the region, expect temperatures to absolutely
tank this evening.  Readings should quickly fall into the 30s by 7
or 8 PM, and fall into the upper 20s between 10 and midnight.  Low
temperatures will bottom out early Saturday morning into the low to
mid 20s.  It is important to note that in some localized areas,
particularly protected valleys, morning low temps in the teens are
entirely possible, if not probable.

Needless to say, this will end the growing season across the area in
one fell swoop. The Freeze Warning will continue unchanged.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

As the surface high begins to move south and east of the area, winds
will become southerly on Saturday, allowing temperatures to recover
into the upper 40s and low 50s.  A continued warming trend is then
expected for Sunday, with highs ranging from the low 50s over the
eastern Ozarks to around 60 across southeastern Kansas.

Gusty southwest winds are then expected for much of Monday as the
next storm system of interest approaches. Widespread rain and a few
thunderstorms associated with a slow moving front will move into the
area late Monday, with rain continuing for much of the day on
Tuesday and Tuesday night.  This system will be able to tap into
some subtropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which will
contribute to a healthy rainfall across the area.  Current
indications are for a widespread 1.5 to 2 inches of rain by the time
precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning.

Dry and seasonable weather is then expected for the tail end of the
extended forecast, with another system perhaps approaching for late
in the workweek and/or next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 641 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Strong cold front is now well south of the area. North winds will
be brisk and gusty, especially this morning into early this
afternoon, and slacken heading into the mid/late afternoon hours.
Band of stratus will bring a brief period of high end MVFR at SGF
and BBG this morning, though this cloud deck should quickly sweep
through the area over the next few hours. Otherwise VFR conditions
will be the rule as strong surface high pressure builds into the
area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 512 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

Record lows for November 1.

SITE...TEMP..YEAR

SGF...23...1991
JLN...22...1991
UNO...17...1993
VIH...21...1954

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...FREEZE WARNING from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Saturday FOR
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan
CLIMATE...Boxell






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