Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 012254
AFDSGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
554 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The potential for severe storms late this afternoon and tonight
still remains somewhat unclear. An outflow boundary from earlier
storms had initially pushed into east-central Oklahoma and northern
Arkansas. This boundary is now retreating to the north and was
located from near Ponca City, OK to just north of Fayetteville, AR.
To the north of this boundary, the airmass has remained fairly
stable from southwestern Missouri into the eastern Ozarks. There
is also a synoptic frontal boundary in place from northwestern OK
into northeastern MO. The atmosphere ahead of this front was only
weakly unstable across northern and central MO. A weak surface wave
was also noted on this boundary across western OK.

As we head into late this afternoon and early this evening, short
wave energy currently across the central High Plains will continue
to shift east towards our region. As this happens, that outflow
boundary will continue to shift north while the synoptic front
nudges south. We are expecting convective initiation starting late
this afternoon...potentially on both of these features. We may see a
window of supercell potential across southeastern KS and
northeastern OK where strong instability will exist (south of that
retreating outflow boundary). Any supercells will tend to slowly
move east-southeast. Large hail would be the primary threat with
any supercells. We have left a limited tornado threat in as a low
level jet develops this evening along with the potential for some
backing of surface winds with that surface wave. Any remaining
boundaries will also have to be watched for a low level vorticity
source...especially if supercells tended to track along them
(versus crossing them).

Speaking of that low level jet, convection will really begin to
blossom later this evening as this feature interacts with the front
and possibly that outflow boundary. This should begin to shut the
window for supercells but open the door for training line segments
and convective clusters. There will still be the potential for some
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief spin-up with any line
segments bowing to the east. Otherwise, heavy rainfall will be the
main concern as we get into later this evening and overnight.

The front is expected to slow down significantly late this evening
and stall across southern Missouri for much of the overnight
hours. As the front slides into the Ozarks, it is expected to
become oriented parallel to the upper level meridional flow.
This parallel alignment will work to slow the southern
progression of the front and allow showers and storms that develop
to move over the same locations for much of the overnight hours.
Additionally, that 30-35kt low level jet will begin to nose into
southwestern Missouri between 00z and 06z and feed very moist Gulf
air into the Ozarks. Forecast precipitable water values climb to
around 2 inches overnight. This will make for very efficient
rainfall production for showers and storms overnight. The right
entrance region of an upper level jet streak will also help to
produce deep layer lift across the area, only acting to enhance
the potential for heavy rainfall potential.

By early Tuesday morning the 925-850MB fronts will become the
focus for heavy rainfall as they settle across the I-44 corridor.
Current expectations are for 2-3 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts exceeding 4 inches in some areas.

The 925/850MB fronts will finally begin to shift south and east of
the region heading into Tuesday afternoon...taking the heaviest
rains with them.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

The upper level pattern is expected to change little through the
middle of the week with a flat ridge remaining over the southern
half of the CONUS. Despite the departing cold front from Tuesday,
some additional shortwaves are expected to move through the flat
upper level flow and interact with the continuing southerly flow
from the Gulf. This will allow for some lingering chances for
showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon.

A brief period of upper level ridging will limit the chances for
precipitation for the remainder of the week as the upper level
pattern begins to shift.

By early Saturday morning, the upper level pattern will become
more northwesterly as the upper level ridge shifts westward and
slides another front through the region.

The ridge will shift eastward once again on Sunday into Monday
behind Saturday`s cold front.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A temporary lull in shower and thunderstorm activity can be
expected for much of this afternoon with VFR prevailing. We will
continue to see brisk and gusty southerly winds this afternoon. We
are then expecting more thunderstorm development from late this
afternoon into this evening with periods of thunderstorms
overnight. MVFR and brief reductions to IFR can be expected with
these storms. The thunderstorms are then expected to end sometime
early Tuesday morning. We may see residual low clouds behind the
departing storms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 549 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

After a break from late morning through much of the afternoon,
thunderstorms started to redevelop around 21z along the frontal
boundary from southeast Kansas into central Missouri. The
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the front will continue to grow
in coverage and strength during the early stages of the 00z TAFS
with general line movement to the south through the mid to late
evening and overnight. While VFR conditions are expected outside
of the convection, MVFR to IFR conditions can be expected within
the convection. Heavy rain will be likely as PW values will be
nearing 2.00 in. Thunderstorm coverage should diminish towards morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>096-098-101>103.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Tuesday morning FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann/Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Lindenberg





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