Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 141754
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1254 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Early this morning a broad upper level trough was located across
central Canada and the northern plains. This upper level trough will
move east into the the Great Lakes States during the day on Sunday.
A secondary trough over western Canada will dig southeast across the
northern high plains by Sunday Afternoon, then into the central
plains Sunday night.

Sunday will be nice as southerly winds warm high temperatures into
the lower to mid 70s. May see some scattered high clouds increase
late in the day.

Sunday night, southerly low-level winds will increase, transporting
deeper moisture northward across the southern and central plains.
After midnight isentropic lift will increase across northeast and
east central KS at the 310 K theta surface, combined with weak
ascent ahead of the digging H5 trough to cause scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop across northeast KS. The more intense
isentropic lift and ascent ahead of the H5 trough will remain across
eastern NE, northern MO and IA during the early morning hours of
Monday. At this time I kept likely pops after 9Z MON across the
extreme northeast counties. I kept chance pops across the remainder
of the CWA through the early morning hours of Monday. Both the ARW
and NMM (WRF model runs) keep the the stronger ascent north of the
CWA and do not forecast any QPF across the CWA during the 6Z to 12Z
MON forecast period. A surface cold front will be approaching the
northern counties of the CWA by 12Z MON. Overnight lows will only
drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s as winds remain southerly
through the night and surface dewpoints remain in the mid to upper
50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

As the upper trough dives southeast through the upper MS valley on
Monday and the llvl flow veers through the day...the cold front will
sinks southward across the cwa. Will therefore maintain highest pops
across the eastern counties with the potential for renewed
development along and ahead of the front in the afternoon.
With the clouds...precip and a slightly faster passage of the cold
front...have trimmed high temps by a degree or two most
areas...although highs from the upper 60s north to middle 70s south
will still be the rule. Will maintain a slight chance for lingering
showers south of I 35 Monday night...otherwise should see a dry fcst
across the cwa Monday night and through the day Tuesday with highs
in the low to middle 70s.

Another very weak shortwave trough will approach the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night which will help to induce warm air advection
from central into east central and northeast KS. This will provide
the next chance for thunderstorms...mainly across the southern half
of the area. Following this event...upper level ridging ahead of the
western trough will overspread the area later Thursday into Friday
with a brief break from thunderstorms. However...by Friday night
into Saturday...the trough and associated front should move through
the area with another chance for thunderstorms. Highs through this
period will commonly be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Went ahead with first introductions of TS mention for TOP and FOE
but only PROB at this point with some uncertainty how far south
elevated convection can form. Expect ongoing central KS very high
based convection to stay north of the terminals. Cold front
arrives in the late portions of the forecast with limiting cigs.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...65





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