Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 310450
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1150 PM CDT Sat May 30 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Persistent stratus cloud deck has been slowly eroding from the
northwest today, but it appears unlikely that clouds will not
dissipate much east of the Highway 81 corridor by this evening.
There have also been a few stray sprinkles moving south across
northeast KS as well...and these should continue slowly drifting
south through sunset. With the clouds in place, afternoon highs will
struggle into the lower 60s. Despite the cool day, the clouds will
also keep the overnight hours a bit warmer despite incoming surface
high pressure...and lows should range from the lower 50s east to the
middle 40s in north central KS where more clearing is expected. See
some minor potential for fog in areas that experience clearing, but
north central KS is having a fair amount of dry advection through
the evening... mitigating the fog potential. If holes open in the
cloud deck farther east, patchy dense fog could develop but this is
contingent on any clearing and a light northerly breeze should help
mitigate that potential a bit as well. Clouds should scatter out
across the entire forecast area by mid morning on Sunday. No
precipitation is expected, winds will be generally less than 10 mph,
and should see a good amount of sun. This will make for a pleasant
Sunday afternoon with highs in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

Sunday Night to Tuesday...

Tomorrow night the moisture begins to advect northward over the high
plains. During this time the flow aloft remains out of the northwest
as the upper ridge builds over the southern Rockies. There is a
slight chance precip develops in western KS/NE and progresses
eastward into central KS during the early Monday morning hours.
There is a decent amount of dry air in place that be will rather
difficult to overcome, so do not have a lot of confidence in those
chances. Late Monday the models are hinting at a shortwave rounding
the northern periphery of the upper ridge. This feature is forecast
to track over western NE during the evening hours where upslope flow
and better moisture should support thunderstorm development. As of
now there are not many signs that suggest this complex really holds
together into central KS, unless the wave happen to track further
south.

Tuesday Night to Saturday...

NE Kansas stays on the edge of an upper-level ridge for the period,
as a prominent upper-level low remains situated over the SE CONUS.
Flow to the north is unsettled with multiple shortwaves moving
through bringing chances/slight chances for thunderstorms for NE
Kansas from Tuesday night to Saturday. Models indicate that the bulk
of precipitation will stay north of our area, with our best chances
for heavier precipitation Friday night and Saturday.  While there is
quite a bit of instability every day, shear remains unimpressive for
the most part.  The GFS indicates that Thursday night would have the
best chances for any stronger storms as 0-6km shear reaches up to
30kts.  Temperatures range from the lower to mid-80s for the period
with lows in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

For the 06z TAFs, main concern is with the stratus deck that is
lingering across some of the TAF sites. Clouds have scattered out
near KMHK while KTOP/KFOE remain on the edge of the overcast MVFR
deck. While model soundings suggest this scattering of the MVFR
clouds to continue for a few more hours, they show the stratus
building westward back into the area and remaining in place through
much of the morning hours. Short-range models continue to show the
potential for high-end IFR cigs to develop near KTOP/KFOE around
sunrise with some slightly reduced visibilities possible. This
stratus should lift and diminish by late morning/early afternoon
with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the period.
Expect winds to veer to the east through the morning hours as
surface high pressure approaches the region.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Heller/Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke





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