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000
FXUS63 KTOP 140906
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
406 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING ACROSS
THE PLAINS. A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE EMERGING OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS HAS AIDED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION MOVING OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTHERN NE. ALSO ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS ALSO DEVELOPED WITHIN
WAA AND CONVERGENCE REGION ON THE NOSE OF THE LLVL JET ACROSS
SOUTHERN NE. AS THE CONVECTION GENERALLY MOVES EASTWARD...THEY MAY
CLIP/DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE MAY THEN BE A LULL IN CONVECTION CHANCES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS NE AND IMPACTS
PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA AGAIN. ONCE THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ENDS...THE CLOUDY SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT
SHOULD ALSO DECREASE...SO TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND AND WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 90S WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS...BUT WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING HEAT INDICES WILL COMMONLY BE
IN THE 100-103 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH THE
UPPER 90S OVER THE EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.

63

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH TX WILL
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
THE STRONGER ASCENT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.

THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND ANY TYPE OF LIFT SHOULD CAUSE
AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER LOW
FILLING INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. AS A RESULT...
THE 500MB WINDS WILL VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
WEST...AND INCREASE TO 40 KTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. GIVEN FORECASTED SBCAPE OF
2500 TO 3500 J/KG...THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE
MORNING BUT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WINDSHEAR LOOKS TO BE
WEST OF THE CWA ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL KS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FILL AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN KS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. IF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
KS...THEY SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY SHIFT EAST DURING THE NIGHT. IF
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER A SPECIFIC AREA OVERNIGHT THEN THERE COULD
BE SOME MINOR FLOODING.

HIGHS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-AMPLIFY
ACROSS NM AND CO. THIS WILL CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY. UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OR COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF KS. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL
THE EXACT PATH OF ANY MCS THAT DEVELOPS. THE 00Z NAM AND GFS MOVES
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF FORECAST THE COMPLEX OF STORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
WESTERN KS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND NORTHERN OK. THE
00Z ECMWF FORECAST WOULD KEEP THE COMPLEX OF STORMS WEST AND SOUTH
OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHWEST
INTO EASTERN KS. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS OK
INTO NORTH TX. THE FRONT WILL CURVE NORTHWEST INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
MOST OF THE UPSLOPE GENERATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWER TO MID 80S EXPECTED.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTER US WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS. STRONGER
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S. HIGHS WILL WARM
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

GARGAN


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO STAY NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH 14Z THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
15 KTS BY 16Z FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BACK TO THE
SOUTHEAST AFTER 01Z SATURDAY. SOME CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS AFTER 03Z SAT...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECLUDES ADDING VCTS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...53