Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 230451

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1151 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Quiet and pleasant conditions this afternoon with dry ridging aloft
and northeast Kansas wedged between the sfc trough across eastern WY
and the ridge axis towards the Texas gulf. Light southeasterly winds
weaken early this evening under clear skies. Mid level ridging
shifts eastward as a very weak perturbation crosses the central
plains overnight. In response, the sfc trough and weak boundary
veers light winds to the north during the day Sunday. Not expecting
any precipitation or cloud cover without any lift and moisture
within the area. Highs tomorrow are a few degrees warmer given we
start out in the lower 50s. Expect overall readings to be in the
middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Pattern for the week is overall on the quiet side, as the state
remains on the southern side of stronger systems moving across the
northern US. Shortwave trof still progged to drop into the Central
Plains Tuesday night into early Wednesday and have kept chances
for thunder these periods. Ridging aloft builds in behind overhead
for the late week into early weekend before another weak front
approaches next weekend. Highs run from upper 60s to 70s through
the week with lows generally in the 40s and 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 22 2016

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Short-range models continue to highlight LLWS concerns through
the overnight hours with winds between 1000-2000ft approaching
40kts. A wind shift is expected Sunday morning as a weak cold
front tracks southeastward across the area.




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