Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 222205

National Weather Service Topeka KS
405 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 403 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

The large scale pattern featured a broad and deep long wave trough
dominating the eastern CONUS with upper ridging just off the Pacific
coast. One short wave was sitting off of Oregon, underneath the
broad ridge, while a stronger short wave trough was quickly moving
east along the Aleutians. The first wave will weaken and cross the
Plains mid-week while the second system will organize over the
southwest by late week.

In the near term, the upper flow pattern will lose its northerly
component with zonal flow by late Monday. At the surface, light west
to southwest winds are expected through Monday in the absence of any
strong pressure gradient. The light breeze should be enough to keep
the boundary layer a bit mixed overnight with low temps holding in
the middle to upper 20s, although some valleys could become calm and
thus colder. Plenty of sunshine and west to southwest winds will
allow highs on Monday to climb nicely, ranging from the middle 50s
in far northeast KS to the lower 60s in central and east central

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 403 PM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Quiet conditions are expected Monday night through Tuesday with
somewhat zonal mid-level flow over the central U.S. and with the CWA
being wedged between surface high pressure over the southeastern
U.S. and surface low pressure across the Rockies.  Models show an
increasing pressure gradient developing over the forecast area
Monday night through Tuesday as the area of low pressure begins to
advance into western Kansas. With these expected breezy southerly
winds and mostly clear skies, have trended a few degrees warmer with
temperatures (even low temperatures). With increasing southerly
winds beginning Monday night, expect lows in the mid 30s. Winds may
gust upwards of 25-30mph Tuesday and Tuesday night, so bumped highs
into the mid/upper 50s with lows in the low/mid 40s.  Models show a
weak embedded shortwave developing within the mid-level flow Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This wave in combination with an increasing
southerly low-level jet over the CWA should aid in some moisture
advection into the area. However, model soundings show a fairly
shallow layer of saturation in the low-levels, so may see
predominantly areas of drizzle develop over the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Wednesday may be the warmest day of the week with
highs reaching into the 60s as a result of the persistent warm-air
advection from the gusty southerly winds. The saturation depth looks
to increase Wednesday night with better moisture advection into the
area, so areas of rain will become more widespread through the
evening and overnight hours into Thanksgiving Day.

Thanksgiving Day afternoon and evening are still the most
interesting times in the extended forecast period.  During the
daytime, guidance is still suggesting that upper level energy will
influence the area adding additional lift along with some mid level
instability.  This will likely lead to periods of heavy rain and
perhaps some isolated thunderstorms over northeast KS.  Late
afternoon into the evening on Thanksgiving is where the concerns lie
with precip changing to more of a mixed bag situation along with
frontal passage. Modified cP air will be pushing down into the
Central Plains which will create some concern for post frontal
precip exiting East Central and northeast KS to switch over to
freezing rain or some type of mix for at least a few hour time
window.  Now, with that said, there is a chance that air aloft may
still be warm enough to support all liquid precip making it to the
ground and the time frame bringing the uncertainty may be shortened
a bit if the column is still too warm.  The situation with the mixed
precip really seems to hinge on how quick the colder modified polar
airmass makes its way into the region.  This should be better
resolved over the next couple days, but the trend has been such that
there is enough of a signal to at least raise the awareness that
folks will need to pay attention to the changes in the weather
during Thursday into early Friday morning.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1105 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2015

Dry air allows for clear skies and VFR conditions throughout the


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Drake/Hennecke
AVIATION...Heller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.