Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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770
FXUS63 KTOP 081739
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1139 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level low centered just west of the
Great Lakes region, with the western edge of the deep mid-level
trough stretching across the Northern and Central Plains.  With an
embedded shortwave skimming just to the east of the area, there was
an increase in low-level moisture early this morning. Model
soundings show some weak instability present in the low-level
saturation layer, which was enough to help produce some light snow
squall showers across the area (primarily across eastern Kansas).
With the better moisture and instability focused further east in
Missouri, some very light snow accumulation will be possible across
far northeast and far eastern Kansas however many locations likely
will not see any snow accumulation.  Short-range models and model
soundings suggest that these light snow squall showers will persist
through the morning hours but gradually exit to the east, with dry
conditions by early to mid afternoon.

Models show a very strong low and mid-level jet tracking across
central and eastern Kansas today, with 45-50kt winds at 850mb. With
model soundings showing decent mixing early this morning and this
decent mixing persisting through much of the day, expect these
strong winds to mix down to the surface, resulting in another very
breezy day.  The strongest winds are actually expected this morning
with sustained winds of 25-35mph and gusts of 45-50mph likely before
gradually diminishing by mid to late afternoon.  As a result, a Wind
Advisory remains in effect for the entire outlook area today.  The
passing embedded shortwave along with the persistent breezy
northwesterly winds will help to advect some cooler temperatures
into the area with highs only reaching into the 30s to possibly near
40 degrees today.

Cloud cover should start to scatter out some during the overnight
hours tonight with northwesterly winds continuing to support some
cold air advection. As a result, lows tonight will likely drop into
the upper teens to low/mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

The long term forecast is rather quiet in terms of sensible
weather. The only precipitation chances worthy of mentioning in
the forecast are small and focused on Sunday as several model runs
have brought a storm system across the central Plains. However,
to be fair, the model trend has been toward a less impressive
storm system over the past few runs, and the operational GFS now
steers the system north of the local area. Otherwise, will still
want to keep an eye on Thursday night into Friday, and possibly on
Wednesday as weak clipper systems will move quickly through the
northwesterly flow pattern with an outside chance to clip
northeast KS with flurry or light snow activity.

Otherwise, still looking for temperatures to modify a bit through
the week, although have trended a few degrees cooler than previous
forecasts in several periods as that northwesterly flow looks more
likely to maintain itself longer and farther south. This would
prevent the warm air and upper ridging from building east into the
local area and result in more gradual warming with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

VFR conditions expected. May have a few periods of flurries over
the next few hours but cigs and vsbys should stay well above MVFR
levels. Wind fields steadily weaken after 21Z but mixing will
likely persist through much of the period to keep gusts in the
forecast.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-
026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...65



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