Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231706
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1206 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Weather concerns remain low for today and tonight. Modest northwest
flow aloft is in place aloft with some bits of cirrus attempting to
work their way into the central Plains downstream of an upper low
off the California coast. Surface high pressure was centered over
south central Nebraska at 07Z with winds light to calm. Dewpoint
depressions are low, but there appears to be enough wind and dry air
off the surface to keep anything more than patchy very shallow fog
from forming through sunrise. This is the primary element to be
monitored in this portion of the forecast. The surface ridge slips
southeast into western Missouri today, veering winds to the
southeast during the day, but lower tropospheric temperatures remain
quite steady for another day of highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A
somewhat stronger pressure gradient will be in place tonight for
some wind to persist, and with scattered mid clouds making their way
in from the northwest, fog potential again appears low.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

Mid and extended range forecast is not terribly exciting weather
wise with only small chances for showers and storms mainly Saturday
night and Sunday time frame.  This is due to a semi-permanent
western ridge in place holding strong for much of the period.  This
leaves northeastern and east central KS in a northwest flow regime
set up. With quality moisture source region being mostly untapped,
any significant moisture will have to likely come with a modified
Pacific system into the Sunday time frame.  This is the most obvious
period where the western ridge perhaps flattens a bit as Pacific
shortwaves traverse through the Northern Rockies into the Plains.
Again, significant lift with any these and lack of real quality
moisture seems to present a problem for most model solutions to
break out any significant QPF over the forecast area.  Therefore,
keeping only slight to chance POPs over portions of the area mainly
north of I-70 corridor zones.  Western ridge appears to build again
into early next week suggesting a continued quiet weather period is
probably in store.  Continued modified Canadian surface ridging
pushing into the area should continue to support dry conditions.
With no significant airmass changes in store, temps hold fairly
steady and below normal just a bit for August.  Low to mid 80s
should do it for high temps.  Meanwhile, lows dip into the low 60s
with dry dewpoints in place.  All in all a nice week ahead and
welcome dry conditions in light of recent heavy rains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. There may be
some shallow or patchy fog early tomorrow morning, but not
expecting any visibility restrictions.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...Drake
AVIATION...Heller


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