Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 242308
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
608 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies were alleviating the heat
somewhat this afternoon as a cool front hovered from central KS,
through Concordia and St. Joseph Missouri. Areas within the cloud
cover have remained in the low 90s while along and south Interstate
70, highs up to the middle 90s combined with mid 70s dewpoints have
resulted in heat indices from 100 to 110. Therefore will leave the
heat advisory as is through 8 PM this evening. Remnant showers
towards the Nebraska border have generated weak outflow boundaries
that may trigger a few thunderstorms late this afternoon-early
evening over far northeast and east central Kansas. Several previous
runs of the high resolution models support this trend, especially
given the weak convergence along the boundary. Steep low level lapse
rates underneath 2000+ J/KG of CAPE may develop a few stronger
storms. Effective shear near 30 kts would be enough to sustain these
updrafts, producing strong gusty winds. Other hazardous impacts with
these storms are low at this time. Incoming weak wave from the high
plains of Colorado may develop additional widespread precip across
areas generally south of Interstate 70 overnight. Forcing is not
particularly strong while the LLJ is not prevalent so confidence is
only as high as 40 percent with the uncertainty of coverage. Severe
weather is not expected with this activity.

Precip gradually comes to an end north to south Monday afternoon as
high pressure builds into the area. With easterly winds around 10
mph and clearing skies, temps are not hot in the upper 80s. Heat
indices stay below 100 degrees in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

On Monday night return flow will be well established across the
region as a surface high pressure slides through the Midwest. A
strengthening low level jet will center over western KS, and will be
the focus for isentropic lift. A few elevated showers and storms may
clip portions of central and southeast KS during the overnight. On
Tuesday the stalled frontal boundary over southern MO may be the
focus additional development especially over southeast KS. Within
the northwest flow aloft weak shortwaves look to track across the
northern plains. On Tuesday night one may be responsible for a storm
complex that moves through NE and possibly northern KS. Also, the
models are hinting at weak isentropic lift out ahead of the wave and
the possible complex. This lift may support showers and storms across
eastern KS as well although coverage does not appear to be
widespread. On Wednesday that shortwave appears to track over the
midwest and extend back over northeast KS. This may provide enough
lift for additional development especially in the evening when a
cold front approaches from the north. More shortwaves are forecasted
to track over the region within the northwest flow aloft. Since
these tracks are difficult to forecast and mesoscale features are
important factors as well it is hard to pin down the details at this
point. Therefore rain chances will continue through next weekend. As
of now we are not expecting any widespread flooding. Temperatures
will be much closer to normal through the extended with highs around
90 and lows around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday)
Issued at 608 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

There are a couple boundaries noted on radar near TOP and to the
south around EMP. The RAP and NAM suggest that a weak vort max is
responsible for the activity over northern MO and southern IA and
should continue propagating east with no obvious forcing
upstream, save for any convectively induced vorticity from the
convection off the mountains. Models seem to be focusing more on
the 850MB front with showers and storms developing along that by
mid evening. Based on profiler data, this boundary remains in the
vicinity of the terminals. So the forecast anticipates elevated
storm development by 03Z. Eventually this should slide south as
the surface ridge slowly builds south. So I remove the mention of
precip before dawn. With this being largely driven by mesoscale
features, will probably need to make adjustments to the forecast
as the evening progresses.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
KSZ021>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters



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