Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 161125

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
625 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Residual cirrus deck from earlier convection this evening across
western portions of the state. Expect this to clear later this
morning with scattered diurnal cumulus once again developing at
around 850 mb this afternoon. 500 mb ridge holds over the CWA
during the next 24 hours, resulting in light and variable sfc winds
and warming temps. Persistent weather pattern from yesterday
suggests similar highs are in store today with readings in the low
90s over east central Kansas, to the middle 90s in north central KS.
Light winds within the boundary layer assist little in mixing out
dewpoints, so expect readings in the upper 60s to be common -
resulting in heat indices ranging from the mid to upper 90s. Quiet
and mild tonight with light winds and mostly clear skies. Monday
morning lows are currently around 70, however may be a few degrees
warmer dependent on convection and residual cirrus that develops
this evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Main concern for the coming weak remains to be high temperatures and
apparent temps. Upper ridge continues to strengthen Tuesday and
Wednesday with low level temps steadily rising, especially during
these days, with 850mb temps in the 21-29 C range by Wednesday
afternoon. South to southwest winds increase during these periods
with little cloud to support good mixing. With nocturnal low level
jet increasing as well, overnight temps will likely stay in the mid
to upper 70s by Wednesday morning with highs in the upper 90s to
around 102 the rule for Wednesday through Friday. Dewpoint values
not looking extreme, but high enough to push heat index values to
the upper 90s to 105 Tuesday, and a few degrees higher area-wide for
Wednesday through Friday. Would not be at all surprised to see actual
temps and dewpoints higher than forecast given recent performance
and feel the going Excessive Heat Watch is well justified. Models do
try to break down the ridge enough for a weak front to enter the
area over next weekend for some potential for at least minor relief.

Will continue with small precip chances in north central Kansas
Monday night and Tuesday with enough continued model agreement in
the weak Rockies wave swinging far enough south for at minor
thunderstorm potential.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR prevails at terminals with light and variable winds becoming
southerly this afternoon around 5 kts.


Excessive Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
evening for KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.



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