Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 192330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT Sun Oct 19 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Upper trough axis this afternoon continues to rotate eastward
into southern Missouri. Expansive area of subsidence is spreading
southward through the plains behind a cold front currently over
central Nebraska. Weak isentropic lift associated with the upper
trough may produce isolated showers over southeast Kansas with
otherwise quiet conditions anticipated through the next 24 hours.

Scattered mid clouds are expected to linger before an upper
shortwave trough over the northern plains sweeps southeast
through the region, forcing a weak cold front through overnight.
Winds become light and variable as they shift towards the
northwest early afternoon Monday. In regards to lows, upper 40s
to lower 50s are common, warmer in spots where cloud cover is
slightly denser. Upper ridge axis pushes east over central KS
Monday afternoon as h85 temps increase between 11C and 13C. In
addition, clear skies will help boost temps a few degrees warmer
into the lower and middle 70s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

Near to above normal temperatures continue into the extended, with
dry conditions for Monday through Wednesday morning. Went on the
cool side of lows for overnight hours as high pressure settles in
then shifts slowly east. Highs in the 70s with lows in the 40s
east with near 50 west by early Wednesday.

Southerly flow returns on Wednesday and boosts moisture up over an
inch as the next upper trof approaches. EC is the slower, deeper
more southern outlier with the track of this system, and
consequently has higher total precipitation amounts, but is an
outlier from ensemble guidance and operational GFS. Others are
more progressive with better energy moving across the northern
states, and still appears to be a light to moderate rainfall with
locally heavy as the front passes. Better rainfall still in the
06-12Z, and could focus more on the northern border if more
favored northern track evolves. Kept some lingering slight chances
east on Thursday for uncertainty but may be clear of our area
earlier in the day. Highs in the 70s continue for Wednesday but
cool to the 60s behind.

Warm pattern continues as ridging returns to the Central Plains on
Friday into Saturday, with southwesterly flow aloft developing
into the late weekend. Lows in the 40s with highs in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 630 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

For the 00z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds overnight into Monday morning will veer from south the north
as a weak boundary tracks eastward across the area. Expect only some
low to mid-level clouds with this frontal passage.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke






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