Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 210443
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1143 PM CDT Mon Oct 20 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Ridge axis on water vapor imagery centers over the western high
plains this afternoon as two shortwave troughs were noted off the
northwest coast and the Midwest regions respectively. Area of high
pressure at the surface is gradually spreading south and east through
KS under light northeasterly winds and highs warming into the lower
and middle 70s.

Surface ridge axis slides over northeast Kansas this evening as
winds shift to the east and become light. A decent inversion near
the surface develops once again with clear skies creating conditions
for patchy fog again Tuesday morning. The inversion on forecast
soundings from around the area is not as strong compared to last
morning so not entirely confident in fog being widespread. Any fog
should quickly dissipate shortly after sunrise as light
southeasterly winds return during the afternoon. A similar airmass
in place under weak flow will bring another warm afternoon to the
CWA. Raised highs tomorrow a few degrees in the lower and middle 70s
as it appeared short term guidance was running slightly cool for
today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

Upper ridge extending over the plains into Canada early Wednesday
shifts eastward through the day as next upper trof crosses the
northern and central Rockies.  Outside chance in the early morning
hours for a shower or thunderstorm along the mid level front in the
overnight low level jet, but chances were too low to add to the
forecast just yet.  By late day, precipitation chances spread into
the north central counties, then across the remainder of the area
overnight. Still looks like better lift and best rainfall chances
are in the midnight to 7am window on Thursday, although amounts have
come down somewhat with generally a quarter to half inch of rain
possible with locally higher amounts. Very little instability in the
column aloft, but enough to warrant a slight chance for some thunder
ahead of the trof passage. Post frontal showers may linger a bit
into the morning hours but expect to dry out for the afternoon.
Airmass temperature change is not significant this far south of the
better energy, with highs in the 70s still expected both Wednesday
and Thursday.

Broad upper ridge over the southwest states amplifies over the
plains through the weekend, before southwesterly flow returns on
Sunday as next upper trof approaches for Monday.  As a result,
middle to upper 70s are on the slow increase through Sunday.  By
Monday could start to see influence of next front, but this far out
only have a slight drop in high temperatures and will keep a dry
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. May see
some MVFR vsbys with fog formation and could see some IFR or LIFR
for brief periods at TOP from 11Z to 13Z with calm winds and clear
skies. Winds become southeast under 10 kts after 14Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...53





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