Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 030404
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1004 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN EYE ON DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...AS WELL AS THE HIRES MODELS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW AM STILL JUST EXPECTING LOW
STRATUS...MAINLY OVER LINCOLN COUNTY...BUT WITH GOOD ENOUGH
MOISTURE ADVECTION SOME FOG MAY BE ABLE TO FORM.

HAVE LOOKED INTO FORECASTED HUMIDITY AND WINDS FOR TOMORROW AS
CONDITIONS ARE MAY INCREASE FIRE CONCERNS. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...HOWEVER WINDS LOOK TO STAY
MARGINAL AND PRECIP HAS OCCURRED OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. NO NEED
FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ALL IS QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. A BIT OF CUMULUS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOUT AS EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH THE SETTING SUN. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF QUASI-
GEOSTROPHIC DYNAMICS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER TOMORROW THAN IS THE
CASE TODAY BUT STILL NOTHING TO GET EXCITED ABOUT...MAYBE SOME
MORE CUMULUS THAN TODAY. THE CIRA WRF SIMULATED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SOME STRATUS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY AND ITS ENVIRONS AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN
THE GRIDS.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TOMORROW IS AN INCREASE IN THE WINDS AND THE
ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. BEASTLY 90+ READINGS ARE
EXPECTED AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL MAXIMA IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY AS WELL. OFFICIAL RECORD HIGH OF 95 AT DIA SET IN 1995
COULD BE THREATENED. LOW HUMIDITIES IN AND CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WINDS TO ELEVATE THE FIRE DANGER ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTH PARK. NO PLANS FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MOST
OF THURSDAY. BY LATE THURSDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
TO INCREASE IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE LOW
LEVELS ARE QUITE STABLE SO ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AS THEY ATTEMPT
TO MOVE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLAINS. HAVE TRIMMED BACK
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE ALREADY LOW POPS...BUT SOME FURTHER
REFINEMENT COULD BE NECESSARY TO REMOVE THEM FROM THE I-25
CORRIDOR AS WELL. FOR NOW...HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN CONSIDERING OUR
PROXIMITY TO THE RIGHT REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL SPEED MAX.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP A RELATIVELY COOL AND SLIGHTLY
STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS MOST OF THE COLORADO PLAINS. AT THE SAME
TIME...THERE IS A MODEST THETA-E RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WHICH SHOULD BRING SCATTERED
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WOULD EXPECT
A FEW OF THESE TO DRIFT ONTO THE PLAINS EACH LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WELL...WITH A WEAKER CAP AND AGAIN THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON THE PLAINS WITH THE COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE AND LIGHT EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

ON SUNDAY...WEAK LEE TROUGHING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS CENTRAL
PLAINS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CAPES MAY
ALSO INCREASE WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...RESULTING IN A FEW STRONGER STORMS. OVERALL...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF ANY DEEPER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE SO THE THREAT OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LOW
DUE TO EXPECTED FASTER STORM MOTIONS AND LIMITED PRECIPITABLE
WATER.

BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WE SEE SOME POTENTIAL FOR DRYING WITH
A LARGER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD
SWEEP ANY DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST AND LOWER THE CHANCE OF ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS. TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN HERE WITH THE LATEST
12Z ECMWF SHOWING A SLOWER EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ENHANCED DRAINAGE FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS.  EXPECTING GENERALLY LIGHT
FLOW TOMORROW WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW PRESSURE OUT EAST AGAIN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KRIEDERMAN
SHORT TERM...ET
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...KRIEDERMAN


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