Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KBOU 280237
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
837 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PUSHED TO THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SEVERE THREAT WILL
COME TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BUT SOME HEAVY RAIN
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE STRONGER
STORMS HAVE PRODUCED EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN. FOR THE MOST PART...THE
STORMS HAVE BEEN MOVING SUFFICIENTLY SO ONLY MINOR FLOODING
PROBLEMS...BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLOWING ON THE FAR NORTHEAST
CORNER WHERE FLASH FLOOD THREAT REMAINS. THIS THREAT WILL DECREASE
BY/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SUBSEQUENT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE WEAKER.

OVERALL...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASING FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER UTAH WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS COLORADO TONIGHT
AND INTO NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY. BEST LIFT IS AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER
WESTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET. THIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
HAS RESULTED IN SOME CLEARING AND PUSHED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CAPES UP TO 1500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
SHEAR MAY HELP A FEW SEVERE STORMS FORM. THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. A BOUNDARY
OVER THE PLAINS WILL PRODUCE CONVERGENCE AND MAY A FOCAL POINT FOR
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS. COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO. THE CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE MAINLY NORTH
WHILE THE ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO END/MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT OR JUST AFTER.

NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF COLORADO. STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. CAPES WILL BE 500 J/KG OR LESS. THIS
AND WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE. THOUGH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. COOL AIR BEHIND THE LOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

THURSDAY EVENING SHOULD BE THE TAIL END OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
RELATED TO THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...DRIER WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WEAK
UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY...WITH
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RISING HEIGHTS HELPING TO SUPPRESS MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WHERE THE HEATING OF THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN WILL BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
THAT DEVELOPS. SATURDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER AS WEAK
RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN...THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS SHOULD BE THE ONLY AREAS TO SEE ANY SHOWERS.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BROAD UPPER TROFFINESS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL EXPAND OVER THE ROCKIES AND DISPLACE THE UPPER
RIDGING TO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO...THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. A LOW AMPLITUDE...ZONAL FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT BACK INTO THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

SHOWERS/WEAKER STORMS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS WILL BE
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LAST PRECIPITATION DEPARTING KDEN
AROUND 04Z. THEN VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH ONLY A LOW
THREAT OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BELOW 2000 FT AGL 10Z-14Z. CURRENT
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD TRANSITION TO WEST/SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...THEN BACK TO NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KTS THURSDAY BY
16Z-18Z. SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED AFTER 19Z THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 838 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS...MAINLY EASTERN
SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES...WILL REMAIN TIL AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THEN LIGHTER RAINFALL WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS.

THE THREAT FOR FLOODING ON THURSDAY WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO WEAKER
STORMS AND A DRIER AIRMASS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...BAKER/BARJENBRUCH
HYDROLOGY...BARJENBRUCH/MEIER


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.