Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 020127
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
727 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 721 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

A FEW SHOWERS KICKED OFF IN A LINE FROM NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY TO
MORGAN COUNTY...HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS ON THE
PLAINS. THE MOUNTAINS ARE STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS...BUT ACTIVITY
IS STARTING TO WIND DOWN THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS MIXED OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
CONVECTION IS SUSTAINING ALONG THE UPSLOPE CONVERGENCE IN THE
FOOTHILLS...BUT SO FAR IS DYING AS IT TRIES TO MOVE EAST. WITH
PLENTY OF HEATING LEFT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DROP POPS FURTHER...BUT
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY EVEN BE LESS THAN FORECAST ON THE PLAINS
TODAY.

FOR SATURDAY IT WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER WITH ISOLATED MAINLY
AFTERNOON STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
LOOKS GOOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 119 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER UTAH SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT
MOVES EASTWARD TO OVER COLORADO BY SUNDAY. IT STAYS THERE UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING. THEN IS SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS CENTERED OVER
WEST TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING AT 12Z. THERE IS A WEAK UPPER LOW
PROGGED OVER THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. PRETTY WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED FOR US SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID DAY MORNING...THEN IT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY...THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY BY 12Z TUESDAY MORNING. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN WEAK
UPWARD ENERGY IS PROGGED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THE
BOUNDARY AREA FLOW SHOULD BE A CROSS BETWEEN NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS
AND SOME DOWNSLOPING. FOR MOISTURE...THINGS ARE PRETTY DRY
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO INCREASE. THE DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S F SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...THEN THEY INCREASE INTO
THE 50S F THE REST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.60 TO 0.90 INCH RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY COME UP INTO THE 0.80 TO 1.10 INCH
RANGE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE CAPE PROGGED SATURDAY EVENING AND LATE DAY SUNDAY.
VALUES INCREASE LATE DAY MONDAY...BUT NOTHING GREAT. WILL KEEP
LATE DAY POPS AROUND 30%S FOR THE HIGH COUNTRY FOR THE LATER DAY
PERIODS...WITH 0-10%S FOR THE PLAINS. HOWEVER WILL UP THINGS A BIT
FOR LATE DAY MONDAY WITH MORE MOISTURE EXPECTED. FOR TEMPERATURES
...READINGS WILL BE UP 0-1.5 C FOR SUNDAY`S HIGHS...THEN 0-2 C
COOLER FOR MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
...MODELS HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE ARE A COUPLE OR THREE WEAK UPPER TROUGHS...DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL...TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE FOUR DAYS. THE GFS HAS
CONSIDERABLY MORE MOISTURE DURING THE PERIOD COMPARE TO THE ECMWF.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A TAD BELOW NORMALS. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
20-40% RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 730 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RTG
SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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