Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 282144
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
344 PM MDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Satellite and radar pictures are showing some convective cloudiness
and a few cells developing over the mountains and foothills right
now. The plains are still quite clear right now. The dew points
over the western third of the plains have dropped into the upper
30s to mid 40s F now, but they are still in the 50s and lower 60s
f over the rest of the plains. The CAPE values are not terribly
high right now over the CWA, with highest up to 1500 J/kg. There
is still quite a bit CIN around over the plains yet. Models keep
northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA tonight and Wednesday with
the upper ridge axis to the west. There is weak downward synoptic
scale energy progged tonight into Wednesday, with weak upward
motion Wednesday afternoon. The boundary layer winds should go to
normal drainage patterns later this evening and overnight...with
weak northerly flow on Wednesday. There is some moisture around
overnight into Wednesday morning, with a pretty dry Wednesday
afternoon for the eastern half of the CWA. Precipitable water
values are in the 0.60 west to 1.25 inch east this evening. They
stay the same over the mountains on Wednesday but drop over the
plains into the 0.50 to 1.00 inch range. Wednesday afternoon`s
CAPE values are 500 to 1500 J/kg for the CWA. The QPF fields have
minor to no measurable rainfall over the western 2/3rds of the CWA
this evening, with higher amounts for the east. There is almost
nothing overnight into Wednesday morning. There is a some over the
mountians and foothills Wednesday afternoon, with nothing over the
plains. For pops this evening, will go with 20-40%s in the
mountians and northeast corner, with only 10%s elsewhere. Will go
with 10-30%s Wednesday afternoon. For temperatures, Wednesday`s
highs will be 1-3 C cooler than current readings.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

A weak upper level trough will suppress the ridge over the
southern Rockies in the Thursday through Saturday period, then
the ridge will rebuild over the west into early next week. This
will bring more moisture and weak lift across northern Colorado
Wednesday night through early Friday, along with pulling a weak
cold front across the eastern plains. There should be some
increase in convection Wednesday evening as the moisture moves in
after a marginal afternoon for storms. Still potential for some
strong storms on the plains, but more likely brief rain and gusty
winds the main threats.

Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler, and the atmosphere
will become saturated with a deep neutral stability by Thursday
evening. This is looking like a favorable environment for heavy
rain. The ingredients are all there, though none are extreme.
Precipitable water rises to around 1.3 inches with a warm cloud
layer of about 8000 feet, and the environment will be broadly
saturated so there will be little evaporation or entrainment.
CAPEs are not high, probably 400-800 J/kg, but enough to sustain
deep convection. The wind profile also looks favorable with
southeast winds at the surface and west to northwest winds aloft.
Latest models are suggesting enough low level wind to cause
backbuilding/training of cells, and also perhaps to cause storm
redevelopment against the foothills. So--a favorable environment
but larger scale focus is not apparent at this time. If there is
one, it would be the frontal boundary which should be into
southeastern Colorado by Thursday evening, and the latest batch of
models are focusing on southeastern Colorado across Kansas for
heavy rain. Of course the mountains are also a focus if the
upslope is strong and persistent enough. Not necessarily
significant rainfall everywhere but a threat of flash flooding on
a larger scale than just one short-lived storm. Raised POPs some
more, for now will stick close to the consensus of .25 to .75
inch rain amounts in this period.

Friday and Saturday look to be transition days as some drier air
gradually works in from the west. This may allow for more
instability, but we should start to have faster storm motions
again. By Sunday we will likely be back to more typical summer
conditions with warmer temperatures and a little late day
convection as the ridge turns the flow back to WNW and brings in
warm and dry air. This pattern will likely continue through at
least the early part of the week. We will need to watch for
stronger winds to increase fire danger, but at this point the
winds seem fairly ordinary--warm, dry and breezy in the afternoon
but the stronger flow seems to be well north of Colorado for the
early part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Models were correct with the southeasterly winds at DIA this
afternoon. Normal drainage patterns should kick in by 03Z this
evening. Northerly winds are progged by 17Z Wednesday. There
should be no ceiling issues at DIA with the expected drainage
winds. Will keep the thunderstorms out of the TAF for now.

&&

.BOU Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM...Gimmestad
AVIATION...RJK



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