Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181645
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1045 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE STATE WILL CAP TSTM DEVELOPMENT. DRY AMS IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WITH SSELY SFC WINDS COULD REACH THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE 93 FOR DENVER...WAIT AND SEE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS THRU MID MORNING
BEFORE BURNING OFF. OTHERWISE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE AREA TODAY AND THEN WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
TONIGHT. WITH WARMING MID LVL TEMPS AND DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED
WILL NOT MENTION ANY TSTMS ACROSS THE CWA. AFTN HIGHS WILL RISE
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH
OF NERN CO EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NERN CORNER WHERE READINGS MAY ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S. RECORD HIGH AT DENVER IS 93 SO NOT
IMPOSSIBLE IT COULD BE TIED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A VERY WEAK UPPER LOW OVER MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO FRIDAY. THEN THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS PROGGED ON FRIDAY...WITH DOWNWARD
VERTICAL VELOCITY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT AND FAIRLY DECENT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING. EASTERLY UPSLOPE IS PROGGED
SATURDAY...THEN SOUTHEASTERLY SATURDAY EVENING. NORMAL DRAINAGE
FLOW IS LIKELY BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING. FOR MOISTURE...IT IS PRETTY
DRY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN CWA
BY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH IT
INCREASING OVER ALL THE CWA ON SATURDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY DECENT
MOISTURE SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 0.50
TO 1.00 INCH RANGE OVER ALL THE CWA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE DEW POINT READINGS ARE PROGGED IN THE LOWER
40S F WEST TO MID 50S F EAST MOST OF THE TIME DURING THE FOUR
PERIODS. THERE IS SOME CAPE OVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HALF OF THE PLAINS LATE DAY FRIDAY. THE NAM SHOWS FAIR CAPE OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY...BUT THE GFS BARELY HAS ANY AND IT IS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS ONLY. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE A TAD OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE HIGH COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS DRY THEN
UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE LIMITED RAINFALL IN NOTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AGAIN. IT IS THE SAME FOR THE EVENING SATURDAY...BUT
AFTER MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS HAVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER
THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS. FOR POPS...WILL GO WITH 10-30%S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...THEN 10-20%S. FOR TEMPERATURES...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER FAIRLY HOT DAY...MAYBE 0-1 C COOLER THAN TODAY`S HIGHS.
SATURDAY IS ABOUT 4-7 C COOLER THAN FRIDAY. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS HAVE AN UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE
SUNDAY...THEN THERE IS A CLOSED LOW/UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH BY
MONDAY MORNING. THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO COLORADO MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING BY WEDNESDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT BY THEN. THERE IS PRETTY
DECENT MOISTURE STILL PROGGED ON THE MODELS FROM SUNDAY WELL INTO
TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY DRIES OUT ON ALL THE MODELS. TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR A TAD UNDER SEASONAL NORMALS ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY SELY WINDS PROGGED
TO THIS AFTN...THEN SSWLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. FROPA ON FRIDAY
EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE 15-18Z PERIOD.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...COOPER
SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...COOPER


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