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000
FXUS65 KBOU 301008
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
408 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

A WK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THRU
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR MID LVL QG ASCENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THRU THE AFTN HOURS.  MEANWHILE THERE WILL STILL BE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25".
OVERALL THERE MAY BE A DECREASE IN PCPN COVERAGE THRU THE MID
MORNING HOURS HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY INCREASE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING
THRU THE AFTN.  WITH ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL NOT SEE MUCH HEATING THIS AFTN WHICH WILL REDUCE THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD STG STORMS THAT WOULD PRODUCE HEAVIER
RAINFALL. HOWEVER WITH SATURATED GROUND AND TROPICAL REGIME STILL IN
PLACE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN A FEW PLACES DUE TO
WRM CORE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. THUS WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IN PLACE THRU THE AFTN FOR NOW. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS OVER NERN CO
MAY ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NERN
CORNER WHERE SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTN MAY ALLOW FOR READINGS IN
THE MID 70S.

FOR TONIGHT RAIN CHANCES SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THRU THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS FM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH SHOWER THREAT ENDING BY
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE ABNORMALLY MOIST AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. A PERSISTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS GOING TO LEAVE COLORADO UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH WEAK FLOW ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF A STRONG
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON. MOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP THE PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY IN FULL FORCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS WANT TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS OF COLORADO. NOW THAT MODERATE AND HEAVY RAIN
HAS FALLEN OVER EASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ANY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTAIN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR THIS
REASON...THE MODELS ARE PROBABLY TOO DRY ON THE PLAINS. DAYTIME
HEATING EACH DAY ALONG WITH ANY EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES
ROTATING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARE GOING TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
PRODUCE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS AND DRIFT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. IT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INITIATE OVER THE PLAINS...INDEPENDENT
OF SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. IN ANY CASE...SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
ARE GOING TO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOIL
MOISTURE CONTENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE CRITICAL AS
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE QUICK TO CAUSE FLOODING PROBLEMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF
AUGUST...BUT HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER THAN COLORADANS ARE
GENERALLY ACCUSTOMED TO. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL IF ANY SINGLE DAY
WILL FEATURE MORE SHOWERS THAN ANY OTHER...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH INDICATE MORE RAIN MOVING OUT ONTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS A LONG WAYS OFF...BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAY SEE IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN
WITH VISBILITIES ABOVE 5 MILES.  BY MIDDAY CEILINGS MAY GET BACK
INTO THE MVFR RANGE HOWEVER SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP WITH AN ISOLD TSTM
POSSIBLE THRU 00Z.  FOR THIS EVENING SHOWER THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
BY 03Z WITH CEILINGS AROUND 7000-8000 FT.  OVERNIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR
COULD BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CEILINGS TOWARDS 12Z THU.  AS
FOR WINDS WILL KEEP THEM NE THRU THE DAY AND THEN LIGHT NWLY BY 01Z.
OVERNIGHT THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT SWLY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE HOWEVER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS LOWER TODAY AS CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT
HEATING AND REDUCE THE THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER STILL COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS DEVELOP WHICH COULD
PRODUCE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IN 45 MINUTES OR LESS IN A FEW
LOCATIONS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ033>047-049.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...DANKERS
AVIATION...RPK
HYDROLOGY...RPK