Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 060258
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
858 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

SHOWERS DID NOT MATERIALIZE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THE LITTLE BITS
OF VIRGA HAVE DISSIPATED. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE THE SHOWERS
AND ADD A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER. ALSO A LITTLE MORE SOUTH WIND
ON THE PLAINS THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FRIDAY WILL BE THE LAST OF THE WARM DAYS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO
AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TRANSLATING EASTWARD AND ONTO THE
PLAINS. FLOW ALOFT OVER COLORADO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE LOW WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL BECOME A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LARIMER AND WELD COUNTIES
IF THE FRONT SLIPS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE PRESENT MODEL GUIDANCE.
THESE ARE THE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF
PRECIPITATION. WILL ALSO MENTION SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AS THE INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE ALLOWS FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE LOW
80S...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT...SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS HAS BEEN MINIMAL
UP TO THIS POINT. STILL NEED TO HOLD ON TO THE MENTION OF A FEW
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

...SEVERE STORM CHANCES INCREASE ON SATURDAY FOR THE PLAINS...

FRIDAY EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
WILL MOVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. LIFT AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM COMBINED WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY
HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE MOST ABUNDANT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN BORDER WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL KEEP LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP TO USHER IN DRIER AIR AND KEEP MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE LASTING THUNDER AT BAY ON THE PLAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...MODELS ARE INDICATING A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO NE COLORADO. THE COUNTERCLOCKWISE WIND FLOW AROUND THIS
LOW WILL INTERACT WITH MOIST NW FLOW BROUGHT DOWN WITH A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS LOW WILL WRAP INTO IT A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL COMING TOGETHER BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL INTERACT WITH THE STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO CREATE A SUBSTANTIAL DRYLINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SYNOPTIC LEVEL A 60+ KT JET WILL BE
OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
ENCOURAGING ASCENT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODEL SOUNDINGS LATE
AFTERNOON SATURDAY SHOW INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH DEEP
SHEAR VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH HIGH SHEAR AND QG VALUES WILL LEAD TO
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE PLAINS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

BY SATURDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING A DRY SLOT INTO EASTERN COLORADO LIFTING CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE KEEPING UNSETTLED AND WET WEATHER
OVER NE COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO
WYOMING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM AS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF DENVER.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...BOWEN
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD


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