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000
FXUS65 KBOU 290356
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
856 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

RUC/NAM SPATIAL CROSS-SECTIONS STILL SHOWING A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SETTLING INTO THE FRONT RANGE URBAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT SO
UPPER THE SKY COVER TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALSO ADDED SLGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER...NORTHEAST LARIMER AND NORTHERN WELD
COUNTY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE EAST OF
THE STATE BY FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH HEADING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PUSH SOME MOISTURE
INTO THE CWA AS THE WEEK ENDS. STEADY BUT WEAK QUASIGEOSTROPHIC
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL COVER MOST OF THE CWA
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT MODEL RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
WEAK WAVE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE FLOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE/UPSLOPE THAT WOULD HELP PRECIPITATION ON THE PLAINS.
CONSEQUENTLY THE LOWLAND POPS HAVE BEEN REDUCED A BIT. WITH THE
LIGHT FLOW ALOFT OROGRAPHICS WILL BE MINIMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS SO
WILL HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH POPS BUT NOTHING TREMENDOUS IN THE QPF
DEPARTMENT UP THERE.

THE TROUGH IS PREDICTED TO HEAD WELL SOUTH OF US BY SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE NORTHERN BRANCH TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ABOUT A WINDY PERIOD TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS
...MAINLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. THE WINDS MAY PUSH
ONTO THE PLAINS FROM TIME TO TIME WITH THE MODELS SUGGESTING
MONDAY NIGHT TO BE THE WINDIEST ALONG THE LEE SLOPES. SOME HINT OF
A MOIST DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE ZONES NEAR THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 843 PM MST WED JAN 28 2015

SELY WINDS AT KDEN AT THIS TIME...BUT WINDS NNE GUSTING TO 25 KTS
AT KGXY AND KFNL...SO COULD SEE WINDS SHIFT FM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST BY 05Z. AS A RESULT...WL NEED TO UPDATE KDEN TO SOME
STRONGER NELY WINDS AT THAT TIME. WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE PUSH...LOW
AND MID LEVEL BKN CIGS THAT DEVELOP COULD STICK AROUND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. COULD SEE ILS CIGS IN THE 040-060FT AGL
CATEGORY. HAVE ALREADY PUT THIS IN THE KDEN TAF THROUGH 16Z AND WL
LIKELY DO SO FOR KBJC AND KAPA AS WELL...THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHC
OF MVFR CIGS RESTRICTION DEVELOPING IN THE 09Z-15Z WINDOW. WL
CONSIDER THIS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER