Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 141046
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

RATHER STG WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER NRN CO THRU TONIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE MTNS BY MIDDAY WITH BETTER
LAPSE RATES BY AFTN.  THUS SHOULD SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SNOW BY
AFTN WHICH WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-70.  AFTER MIDNIGHT MOISTURE WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT
HOWEVER WILL STILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHTER OROGRAPHIC SNOW IN MOST
MTN AREAS.  MEANWHILE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ABV 10000 FT.  WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR MTN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-70 THIS AFTN THRU TONIGHT.  PORTIONS OF ZN 31 COULD GET CLOSE
TO WARNING CRITERIA IF LATEST HRRR IS CORRECT.

AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A PACIFIC FNT WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS AFTN WITH
GUSTY NWLY WINDS DEVELOPING FM THE FOOTHILLS ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH
STG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IN PLACE PCPN POTENTIAL OVER NERN CO LOOKS
TO BE RATHER LOW HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME MID LVL QG ASCENT
LATER THIS AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS SO WILL KEEP IN A
SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS. AS FOR HIGHS READINGS WILL BE COOLER THIS
AFTN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS NERN CO.

AS FOR HIGH WIND THREAT OVERALL THERE IS NEVER REALLY MUCH OF A MTN
WAVE FOR ANY EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT.  THUS DON`T
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW
BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS IN THE NORMAL WINDY AREAS IN AND NR THE
FOOTHILLS.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

MODELS HAVE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. JET LEVEL SPEEDS ARE 80 TO 110
KNOTS ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY FIELDS HAVE WEAK
DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA ALL FOUR PERIODS. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED BY DOWNSLOPING THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME PROGGED OVER THE HIGH
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING...THEN IT DECREASES. THERE IS
SOME OVER THE PLAINS...MOSTLY IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS MONDAY.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT ARE PRETTY DRY IN ALL AREAS. THE QPF
FIELDS SHOWS LIMITED SNOWFALL IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. FOR POPS...NOTHING FOR THE PLAINS...TO DRY AND
DOWNSLOPING. FOR THE MOUNTAINS...THERE IS SOME MOISTURE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS HELP WITH OROGRAPHICS...HOWEVER...
MOISTURE DECREASES SLOWLY THROUGH THOSE TWO PERIODS...THERE IS
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION...AND NO HELP FROM SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT.
CURRENT GFE GRIDS HAVE 50-80% POPS IN THE HIGH MOUNTAINS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...THIS LOOK REASONABLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN ZONE 31...BUT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA AMOUNTS ARE UNLIKELY.
FOR TEMPERATURES...MONDAY`S HIGHS ARE 1-3 C WARMER THAN TODAY`S.
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE 1-2 C WARMER THAN MONDAY`S. FOR THE LATER DAYS
...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THEN PUSHES
THROUGH BY FRIDAY MORNING. FLAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED DON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
ENERGY AND MOISTURE FOR LIMITED MOUNTAIN POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
ALL FOUR DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 335 AM MST SUN FEB 14 2016

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BECOME SLY.  BY 16Z THEY MAY BECOME
MORE WLY AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE WNW DIRECTION BY EARLY
AFTN.  LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME GUSTS FM 30 TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR FM
20Z TO AROUND 00Z.  BY EARLY EVENING WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WSW AND
THEN SSW BY 06Z.  AS FOR CLOUD COVER MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DROP
DOWN TO 8000 FT LATE THIS AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS A FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS WHICH MAY PRODUCE VIRGA OR A FEW SPRINKLES.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ034.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR
COZ031-033.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RPK
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...RPK



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