Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 230411

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1011 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Few changes were made to forecast grids this evening. Main change
was to delay to shift to southerly winds in the greater Denver
metro area by a couple of hours. Otherwise the low amplitude
mountain wave along the Front Range continues to generate scattered
standing wave clouds and downslope breezes in and near the
foothills which have kept temperatures up this evening in this
area. Should see the mtn wave relax overnight and the downslope
flow weaken resulting in a steady drop off in temperatures.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

No significant changes to forecast...we still have a dry stable
airmass in place with a lee trough in eastern Colorado. Winds will
continue this afternoon...and drop off this evening.  We still
expect the lee trough to move east later tonight with a high
pressure center dropping across eastern Colorado and dropping
temperatures back into the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Looks like another mainly dry and mild autumn week ahead for
Colorado with high pressure in control with just a few
exceptions. Temperatures overall will be in the 70s on the plains
and 40s and 50s in the mountains through much of the week and
looks like a persistent forecast is the way to go.

The exceptions include a weak upper level disturbance which will
shift the ridge East of Colorado on Monday with a more southwest
flow aloft and increasing moisture. Expect scattered showers to
develop in the mountains late Monday and continue into Tuesday
with some weak QG ascent with the disturbance. A few showers may
spill out on the plains on Tuesday but lack of upslope flow will
keep activity limited. Temperatures will be a little cooler with
the trof and some more cloud cover.

High pressure ridge aloft builds back into Colorado on Wednesday
with a return to dry and mild conditions. Next batch of moisture
moves into Colorado Friday afternoon and night for the next chance
for showers and cooler temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

Winds in the Denver metro area continue to swing around to a
southerly component as they often do this time of night. Speeds
should remain on the light side overnight...generally under 12
kts. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours
under an upper level ridge of high pressure. However a weak
mostly dry cold front is still projected to back into northeast
Colorado tomorrow bringing cooler temperatures...lighter winds and
a few more clouds to the metro area.


Issued at 139 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2016

The red flag warning continues...we have seen a few observations
with humidities less than 10 percent...but that has been hit and
miss. expect that when winds drop this evening and dewpoints begin
to rise that the red flag warning will expire at 6pm.




LONG TERM...Entrekin
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