Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 181112
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LOW NEAR WALSENBURG AT THIS TIME TRACKING SLOWLY EAST. DRY
SLOT HAS CURLED AROUND ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
MOISTURE WRAPPING BACK FROM WYOMING INTO THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS.
AT THIS TIME THE BACK PART OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE STRONG
LIFT WITH IT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS
EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO SPIN AROUND THE LOW CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
EAST. A COMPLEX PATTERN...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THE MODELS HAVE
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PICTURE. DETAILS OF JUST WHERE
THE BANDING STRUCTURE AND CONVECTION ARE VARY CONSIDERABLY. LIKING
THE HRRR PRESENTATION OF THE DEVELOPING BACK EDGE SNOW BAND ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...ROUGHLY FROM LARAMIE TOWARD RIFLE THIS MORNING.
HARD TO SAY IF THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE IN THE BEST OF
THIS...OR IF IT WILL STAY FURTHER WEST WITH THE DRIER AIR CURLING
BACK OVER THE FRONT RANGE. I DID INCREASE THE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...HELD OFF ON INCREASING AMOUNTS TOO MUCH AS THE SNOW
MAY TEND TOWARD LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS WITH A STEADY
BACKGROUND OF LIGHT OROGRAPHIC SNOW. IF THAT BAND WOBBLES FURTHER
EAST AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. MEANWHILE ON THE PLAINS THERE IS
DRIER AIR ALOFT...BUT THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AND THE COLD
POOL ALOFT WILL BE OVER THIS AREA...AND THERE WILL BE SOME LIFT
FROM THE TIP OF THE WARM ADVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER. CONVECTION
SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY. NOT AS MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
RISK TODAY...CAPES LIKELY AROUND 300 J/KG AROUND DENVER AND 600
NEAR THE EASTERN BORDER. I WOULD SAY NEGLIGIBLE SEVERE THREAT
EXCEPT FOR THE COLD TEMPERATURES...COULD BE SOME HAIL OUT EAST BUT
IT SHOULD BE HARD TO GET LARGE HAIL.

FOR TONIGHT THE BACK EDGE BAND WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST. THIS SHOULD BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. NORTH WINDS ALSO INCREASING...WHICH COULD WARM/DRY AREAS
NORTH OF DENVER BUT ENHANCE THE THREAT OF SNOW SOUTH OF DENVER.
THE NORTH WIND SHOULD ALSO BRING A FEW DEGREES OF
COOLING...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS BACK DOWN TO 5-6 THOUSAND FEET.
HOWEVER AIR TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST
AREAS...SO STILL EXPECTING LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE METRO AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THERE IS WEAK TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY JET LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
CWA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK DOWNWARD SYNOPTIC
SCALE ENERGY FOR THE CWA SUNDAY...THEN BENIGN ENERGY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS
ON SUNDAY...WITH WEAKER NORTHEASTERLIES SUNDAY NIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS ARE NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...THEN A HINT AT NORMAL
DRAINAGE PATTERNS MONDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS PLENTY FOR
THE CWA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NAM BEING THE DRIEST. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND BOTH MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS BEING THE WETTEST. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE DAY SUNDAY DAY. THERE IS A BIT
MORE CAPE OVER ALL THE HIGH COUNTRY LATE DAY MONDAY...BUT STILL
PRETTY MEAGER AMOUNTS. THE QPF FIELDS HAVE SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. FOR POPS...20-50%S ARE GOOD
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE LOWER NUMBERS FOR THE PLAINS. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY`S HIGHS ARE A BIT COLDER THAN TODAY`S BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT...EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MONDAY`S HIGHS
ONLY WARM UP 1-2 C FROM SUNDAY`S.  FOR THE LATER DAYS...TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE IS AN UPPER RIDGE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NOW ON THE MODELS. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH LOOKS WEAKER THAN IT DID
ON YESTERDAY`S 00Z RUNS AND IT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 512 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE VARIABLE TODAY AS THERE WILL BE SCATTERED
SHOWERS. FOR THE MORNING THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH
A FEW PATCHES OF IFR. CEILINGS SHOULD BE HIGHER BY LATE
MORNING...BUT STILL EXPECT LOCALIZED MVFR NEAR SHOWERS. THERE MAY
BE LOWER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS EVENING WHEN THERE IS A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...MAINLY MVFR BUT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF IFR
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST...BUT WITH SOME VARIABILITY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH THE RAIN
TONIGHT...BUT NO RUNWAY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THE DENVER
AREA AIRPORTS.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GIMMESTAD
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD



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