Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 041610
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1010 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION OVER
THE SW PORTIONS OF THE STATE. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND NOON
TO 1 PM CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. OVER THE PLAINS THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITHIN THE MODELS OF THE STRENGTH OF THE LEE TROUGH. THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE OVER-DOING THE MOISTURE BRINGING THE MOST WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SCENARIO...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OVER THE PLAINS WITH INCREASED CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FOOTHILLS.
WITH SOLAR INFLUENCE THIS MORNING DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER COMBINED
WITH POTENTIAL OUTFLOWS FROM THE NE...DENVER COULD SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS TODAY WHILE THE
PLAINS MAY REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE STATE FROM
THE SOUTH TODAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A DEEP EARLY SEASON TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MOISTURE AMOUNTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT A POSSIBLE CONNECTION TO
TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IS GOING TO NEED TO BE MONITORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM KEVIN APPEARS LIKE IT WILL NOT ARRIVE OVER COLORADO
UNTIL TOMORROW. IN THE MEANTIME...THE FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS
WILL HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ON THE PLAINS...THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THINGS DRY
WHILE THE NAM BRINGS A BAND OF SHOWERS OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL
STICK WITH A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN CASE THE NAM IS
RIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WHILE WINDS FURTHER ALOFT ARE MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THAN THEY HAVE
BEEN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN MAY MAKE IT HARD FOR
MANY SHOWERS TO BEGIN TRACKING EASTERLY AND OUT OVER THE PLAINS.

THE NEARLY MERIDIONAL FLOW PATTERN MAY LEAD TO SOME TRAINING
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY...BUT THIS WILL NOT BECOME A PROBLEM
UNTIL MOISTURE FROM T.S. KEVIN ARRIVES. OTHER THAN THAT...
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT WHAT THEY WERE YESTERDAY...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CWA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS ON THE INCREASE. THE FLOW BECOMES
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST
NEARS COLORADO AND WEAKENS. THE JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS ARE AROUND
80 KNOTS OVER THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS WEAK UPWARD SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY ON THE QG VERTICAL VELOCITY
FIELDS FOR THE CWA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING...THEN ALL
DOWNWARD ENERGY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS DECENT ENERGY
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BUT IT IS ALL NORTH OF COLORADO. THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAVE SOME DOWNSLOPING TO THEM FOR SATURDAY
...THEN NORMAL DRAINAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WITH SOME WEAK UPSLOPE IS PROGGED ON SUNDAY...THEN WEAK DRAINAGE
SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MOISTURE...THERE IS QUITE A BIT ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY EVENING...THEN IT DRIES OUT PRETTY GOOD EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ABOVE ONE INCH OVER THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING...THEN THEY DECREASES INTO THE 0.25 TO 0.75 INCH RANGE BY
LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS A BIT OF CAPE AROUND LATE DAY SATURDAY
...BUT NOTHING IN THE SUBSIDENCE BY LATE DAY SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME
MEASURABLE RAINFALL ON THE QPF FIELDS LATE DAY SATURDAY AND THEN
NOTHING FOR LATE DAY SUNDAY. SO FOR POPS WILL GO WITH 10-40%S FOR
LATE DAY SATURDAY...THEN NOTHING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY`S HIGHS ARE 0-15. C WARMER THAN TODAY`S
EXPECTED HIGHS. FOR THE LATER DAYS...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS KEEP PRETTY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
CWA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN WEAKER ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THERE IS A COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE IS
NOT VERY GOOD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE BEST ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS ONCE AGAIN
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AIRPORT LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BETWEEN 23 AND 02Z. CEILINGS WILL DROP
TO AROUND 080 WITH BRIEF RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH BEING
THE MAIN THREATS. WINDS WILL RETURN TO DRAINAGE BY THE EVENING.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...DANKERS
LONG TERM...RJK
AVIATION...BOWEN


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