Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FXUS65 KBOU 011748
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1048 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1047 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

No large changes needed for the forecast, besides adjusting
tonights minimum temperatures slightly. Based off of last nights
lows, needed to warm the urban corridor slightly as well as the
far northeastern plains.

Winds in the foothills and mountains are still expected to be
decreasing through the day, while some gusty west winds will
likely increase over the urban corridor this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 207 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

A strong and subsident northwesterly flow aloft will remain over
the region through tonight. Aside fm the orographic snow showers
along the higher northwest facing mountain slopes today, the
airmass will be dry. NAM12 spatial cross-sections show an
amplified mountain wave around 15z this morning, stronger gusts in
the foothills will likely revolve around this time. The winds
will remain gusty through the day, but the wave will break down
after 18z which may less the magnitude of the gusts this aftn.
Across the northeast plains, gusty winds there as well with the
strongest gusts near the foothills from Boulder County northward,
the Cheyenne Ridge, and adjacent plains zones along the Wyoming
and Nebraska borders. Strongest sfc pressure gradient will be
prior to 18z then it relaxes a bit. Temperatures will be only
slightly warmer than yda. High pressure and the surface and aloft
will keep the airmass dry and stable overnight. Gusty winds will
persist in and near the foothills, but not as strong as this
morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 207 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

An upper level ridge over the western states will produce a
northwest flow aloft across Colorado Thursday. This will result in
dry conditions with temperatures near normal. The ridge will
weaken as it progresses eastward over the Central Rockies on
Friday. Temperatures will warm to the upper 50s to lower 60s
across northeast Colorado.

For the weekend, flow aloft will back to the southwest Saturday
as the ridge shifts east of the region. Airmass will continue to
warm with highs in the 60s across northeast Colorado. Southwest
flow aloft is expected to increase Sunday as an upper level system
moves onto the west coast. There may be enough moisture embedded
in the southwest flow aloft to bring snow to the mountains late
Sunday. It will be mild again Sunday with highs in the mid 60s to
lower 70s over northeast Colorado. Windy conditions may develop
Sunday as flow aloft increases. With dry conditions expected
through the weekend, the fire danger will be elevated across the
plains, especially on windy days.

The upper level trough moving onto the west coast Sunday will
race across the western half of the country Sunday night and
Monday. The GFS is much more amplified and deeper with the trough
than the ECMWF. The timing of the system is somewhat close, so
Sunday night and Monday is when the best chance for mountain snow
will be. Due to the strong flow aloft windy conditions are
expected Monday behind a cold front. The zonal flow should produce
downslope conditions and keep the plains dry. Not much agreement
among the models for Tuesday. Temperatures should be above normal
with dry conditions expected across the plains. Will keep the
mention of snow out of the mountains, though if the GFS pans out
there could be light mountain snow Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 1047 AM MST Wed Mar 1 2017

VFR expected through Thursday morning with ceilings remaining
above 20kft. Generally west/northwest wind expected today, with
an increase in speeds after 21Z. Some southeasterly winds still
holding on where snowcover exists, but should eventually mix out.
Strongest winds will be near KBJC with gusts to 25-30 kts. Winds
should back to drainage tonight, but may take a little longer than
usual to get there.


&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Kriederman
SHORT TERM...Cooper
LONG TERM...Meier
AVIATION...Kriederman



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