Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 222304
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
604 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 259 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

The front that brought last nights weather has swept east today,
taking much of the lingering morning showers with it, though cloud
cover has been a little slow to clear. But, in general behind the
exiting front quite weather is expected for the coming week with
temperatures bouncing up and down a little.

The broad pattern this coming week will quickly evolve over the next
day as the trough that brought Saturdays cold front, currently
moving through the Lower Mississippi River Valley, will deepen into
a deep slow moving trough over the eastern CONUS; resulting in a
strong meridional flow across the Plains States. Temperatures today
and Monday will still be rather nice with highs generally in the
60s, but by Tuesday that northernly flow will bring a shot of cool
air, knocking highs down a little. However, the deep trough will be
ejecting farther east by mid week, only to have another impulse of
energy deepen it again late in the work week. Hence, expect highs to
rebound from Tuesday cool conditions for Wednesday and Thursday, but
that deep meridional flow will bring a true shoot of cold air Friday
and through next weekend. Currently, highs for both Friday and
Saturday are expected to top out in the 40s, with a decent chance of
getting a widespread freeze across the region Saturday and Sunday
mornings. One adjustment to the forecast was to trim out POPs from
late in the work week and into the weekend as cold intrusions, like
the one advertised by the ensemble and operational models, tend to be
dry; and the ECMWF which was advertising said precipitation is
starting to trend dry also.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 604 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period due
to very dry conditions across the region. Light and variable winds
will increase dramatically out of the northwest Monday morning as
a cold front pushes through the region, and may reach sustained
speeds greater than 15 to 20 kts with gusts in excess of 25 kts
by midafternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin



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