Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 021140
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 358 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

One more day of active weather is expected before we experience a
tranquil fall like pattern for the remainder of the forecast period.
However, currently, ongoing thunderstorms are continuing across the
forecast area this morning. These storms are expected to continue
through the mid morning hours as a persistent 35-45KT LLJ will
continue to nose into the forecast area overriding a surface
boundary across the southern CWA. As the LLJ weakens and veers off
to the east this morning and storms weaken, we will turn our
attentions back across eastern Kansas where a stationary cold front
resides. An upper level shortwave wave ejecting out from an upper
level trough which is digging into the western High Plains this
morning will force the cold front eastward by mid/late morning.
Thunderstorms will then develop over the western CWA along the cold
front. However, the stationary boundary currently across the
southern CWA is expected to lift northward as a warm front during
the day leaving the area in the warm sector. Good instability may
lead to the potential for large hail early in the event. However,
these storms are eventually expected to form a linear structure with
damaging winds being the main threat for most of our area. These
storms will push east with the front across the CWA through the day
today continuing the severe weather threat. The front will exit the
area this evening however showers and a few thunderstorm may persist
tonight as the upper level trough shifts through the area.

The rest of the forecast period looks to be mostly dry with a
warming trend. Strong cold air advection coupled with strong
northwest flow aloft is expected across the area on Friday ushering
in much cooler temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 50s. The
only real concern in the extended period will come Friday
night/Saturday morning when temperatures could bottom out in the mid
to upper 30s producing a few hours of frost deposition. Any,
sensitive vegetation will need to be protected. With such a cool
start on Saturday, very little mixing, and continued northwest flow
aloft, highs Saturday will remain cool with highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. On Sunday, cold air advection subsides and northwest flow
aloft beings to relax. Highs Sunday will be near normal in the lower
60s to near 70.

Monday will provide the only chance for light precipitation across
the area. This will occur as a vort max rounding an upper level low
over western Ontario move through the region. Light rain will be
possible despite dry conditions. Highs will again be in the lower
60s to near 70.

There is some model discrepancies in the far reaches of the extended
as the EC moves a quick moving upper trough through the region on
Tuesday followed by upper level ridging building into the region in
its wake on Wednesday. The GFS depicts a shift to a more zonal
pattern. In any case, warmer temperatures will be in store by
Wednesday with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

Thunderstorms have shifted south of the terminals this morning with
MVFR cigs over the terminals. Cigs at the terminals should lift back
to VFR by 14Z with bkn-ovc cigs btn 3-4kft except at STJ where MVFR cigs
will be slow to lift. A cold front will move thru the terminals by late
morning/early afternoon accompanied by sct ts. Have a TEMPO group for
-tsra at the terminals for the afternoon hours. Storms should shift
east of the terminals by this evening however there could be a period
of MVFR cigs behind the front this evening. Cigs will then sct
overnight as dry air moves into the region. Light south to
southeasterly winds this morning will shift to the NW behind the cold
front this morning/early afternoon and pick up to 10-15kts. Winds
will subside to 5-10kts tonight while remaining out of the NW.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR KSZ057-060.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR MOZ033-040-043>046-
     053-054.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73






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