Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 290351
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1051 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.Discussion...
Issued at 402 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

A bit of a cloudy to partly cloudy, but nice, day has prevailed
across the region in the wake of storms over the past couple of
days. However, we will be cooler as we move forward through the next
few days and the potential for thunderstorms will return for Friday
and the weekend.

Big picture today shows the Central Plains enjoying a shortwave
ridge between the trough that moved through Wednesday (now to our
north) and another large trough across the Great Basin to our west.
The shortwave ridge will persist across the Plains into Friday, but
the large scale trough out west will eject a smaller trough through
the Plains Friday and through the weekend. As a result, expected
warm air advection, with an abundance of moisture in the region,
will allow showers and thunderstorms to bubble up again. Currently,
model solutions have slowed down the onset of the precipitation; and
while the forecast has been adjusted to slow the onset a little,
still expect a chance of rain to spread across the region Friday
with the best chance for widespread activity expected to develop
late Friday evening and overnight as the large scale warm air
advection ramps up ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough moving
into the Plains. Severe threat looks very minimal to non-existence
outside an errant small hail or gusty wind report that might be
associated with the Friday night thunderstorm activity. However, we
will have precipitable water values running over one inch; and given
our recent rains, any torrential rain might lead to some local
flooding issues. That applies not just to Friday night, but all
through the weekend whenever more storms occur.

Rest of the weekend will be dominated by a chance for rain as the
ejecting shortwave trough gets picked up by the prevailing
westerlies, likely making for a cloudy and damp weekend. This will
help keep temperatures a little cool (around normal, but cool from
what we`ve had recently)through the weekend into next work week with
highs in the 60s to low 70s.

Otherwise, expect the chance for rain to fade Sunday night into
Monday with dry conditions likely Monday through Thursday of next
week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1051 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

Stratus will linger over northern MO for a few more hours, then
should gradually fall apart and lift to the northeast, bringing all
TAF sites to VFR shortly after 06z. Broken midlevel stratus will
stream over the region tonight, but may break up a bit especially
during the afternoon, and will remain at or above 6-8 kft. Showers
and perhaps some embedded thunder, accompanied by lower ceilings,
will gradually build in from the south after 00z Saturday, impacting
all TAF sites prior to 06z.

&&

.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

Discussion...Cutter
Aviation...Laflin



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