Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
FXUS63 KEAX 030407
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1107 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2015
Issued at 304 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
Showers and isolated thunderstorms already in NW MO will continue
to be possible through tonight, primarily across northern MO,
eastern KS, and western MO. Some lingering instability exists
across the southern portions of the forecast area but isn`t much,
with the much better thunderstorm chances well south of this area.
Same goes for the dewpoints, although it is still rather moist
west and south of a line stretching from Maryville through
Chillicothe and into Moberly as they range from the mid 60s to the
lower 70s. The overcast skies will persist through early tomorrow
along with lower-end precip chances as a vort lobe rotates
For the start of the holiday weekend, surface high pressure and
drier air under NW flow aloft will move on in, limiting storm/rain
chances. Look for this drier weather to persist through overnight
Saturday. However, the region will re-enter an active pattern by
the end of the weekend as the high shifts off toward the east.
Surface southerly flow returns and an upper-level disturbance
traversing through on Sunday will trigger convection across much
of the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Along with
increasing moisture transporting into the region by Sunday, better
instability will also re-emerge, preparing in advance for a fropa
early next week.
Zonal flow aloft will take over next week and as mentioned, a
front looks to be approaching and crossing the area on Monday.
PWATs will be on the increase, and with the relatively slow trek
of the boundary, could see another setup for moderate to possibly
heavy rainfall Monday through Monday night. Will need to keep an
eye on this system as time approaches and higher confidence in the
details comes together. Could see the front stall and wash out in
the vicinity of the southern portions of the forecast area.
Through much of next week, PoP chances persist but looks to
transition into a typical summertime convective situation under
weakly-driven synoptic pattern.
High temperatures look to linger slightly below normal for this
time of year with the exception of Sunday. The aforementioned
southerly flow will usher in warmer air, with highs getting into
the upper 80s. Low temps will be closer to normal for this time of
year, ranging primarily in the mid to upper 60s throughout the
forecast period, with warmer lows to greet Monday morning ahead of
the discussed front.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015
The main concern for overnight will be cigs/vsbys over the terminals.
Light winds with ample low level moisture will produce some IFR or
MVFR conditions. Latest satellite and surface observations indicating
southeast Nebraska through southwest Iowa and into northwest Missouri
have cigs around 2K FT already. Further to the south around KSTJ
through south metro KC with some breaks in the lowest stratus
allowing more restrictions to vsby. Expecting the IFR/MVFR stratus
mentioned to advect in so that the vsby will lower to around 2SM.
However...some drier air is working in from the northeast and so will
have to monitor for middle level cloud deck to be the only issue
tonight and therefore we could improve to VFR sooner...before sunrise even.