Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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FXUS63 KEAX 270405

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Issued at 419 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Scattered storms have initiated just south of a cold front along an
outflow boundary from previous nights convection. These storms have
developed along an axis of 2500-3000 J/KG ML CAPE and 25-30 kts bulk
shear. Cold front continues to sag southward and has likely already
merged with the previously mentioned outflow boundary. Enhanced
shear along the boundary has allowed for a few strong to severe
storms capable of up to golfball sized hail to develop. This
activity should slowly move south as cold pool increases along the
boundary. Given the lack of a LLJ overnight, do not expect
significant convection to last much past 03Z this evening. The
wrench in the equation is an incoming MCV out of central Kansas.
This could allow convection to linger a bit longer and depending on
how far it travels eastward overnight, could potentially initiate
convection Monday afternoon.

Besides a few severe storms, current concerns are also focused on
flooding in locations of ongoing convection. Open GOM and remnants
of a tropical depression along the Yucatan allowed decent moisture
transport up into the Central Plains and upper Midwest. Precipitable
water values of nearly 2 inches have made afternoon convection very
efficient rain producers with rates of 2-3" per hour.

Despite the cold front moving through, temperatures will climb back
into the 90s Monday as 850mb thermal ridge remains draped across the
Central Plains. A reinforcing upper level trough dropping into the
Northern Plains and translating towards the Great Lakes region will
push another cold front through the CWA. Cooler air will filter in
behind the front and with upper ridge building over the western half
of the conus, the mid-MO river valley will be placed in northwest
flow aloft through the remainder of the week. Afternoon temperatures
will return to near normal with readings back into the mid 80s. In
addition to the cooler temperatures, several rounds of precip are
possible across the Plains beginning midweek as embedded
disturbances in the general flow kick off convection along the
higher terrain. Models a bit uncertain on tracking of this precip
and convective feedback may be overdoing chances a bit.


.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

Winds have become light and variable across the area late this
evening and should become nearly calm for the majority of the night
through Monday morning. Fog may develop at all TAF sites over the
next few hours, and could reduce visibilities down to two miles or
possibly even lower after 08z. Fog, if it forms, should begin to
dissipate after sunrise, and winds will very gradually increase to
around 5 to 7 kts out of the east southeast by late morning Monday.


.EAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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